CONCERN IN KARBALA ABOUT ELECTIONS' INTEGRITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000130 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI IZ SUBJECT: CONCERN IN KARBALA ABOUT ELECTIONS' INTEGRITY Classified By: PRT Team Leader Don Cooke for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) This is a PRT Karbala Reporting Cable. ¶1. (C) Summary: Some in Karbala are concerned about the integrity of the upcoming provincial elections, but we do not believe the credibility of the process is in jeopardy. The balloting procedure is viewed as unduly complex and likely to confuse all but the most educated or best prepared voters. It is suspected the omission of family (tribal) names from the ballot lists will enable popular incumbents to downplay tribal affiliations that could cost then support from certain voting blocs. Well-financed candidates are said to have bought from their fellow party members the top, and most advantageous, spots on the majority of lists. Alleged vote-buying has prompted at least one candidate to worry that he cannot win unless he, too, purchases support. End Summary. Complexity and Preparation -------------- ¶2. (C) Since formal campaigning began last month, a variety of contacts have expressed concern about the integrity of the upcoming provincial elections. Many believe that the balloting procedures -- wherein citizens may choose either a list or a list and a single candidate on that list -- will confuse the vast majority of voters. According to a candidate competing on the Independent Scientific Elite list, comprised of a group of progressive intellectuals, the procedure's complexity effectively will disenfranchise many poor Iraqis, among whom he expects the ballot-spoilage rate to be high. (To give commonly cited examples, a voter's ballot could be disqualied for selecting a list and a single candidate from another list, for selecting a single candidate and not selecting a list, or for selecting more than a single candidate.) Underscoring such concerns, Sayid Ahmad al-Safi -- who, along with Shaykh Abd al-Mahdi al-Karbala,i represents Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Karbala -- devoted part of his Friday sermon from the al-Husayn shrine on January 9 to explaining the balloting procedure. He complained that the Iraqi High Elections Commission is not doing enough to educate voters. ¶3. (C) Meanwhile, some lists are taking it upon themselves to ensure their supporters know how to vote. A senior security official recently told PRT officers that his clan chieftain -- who is seeking a Provincial Council (PC) seat on a tribal �00A;list -- has been playing host to weekly "practice elections" at which clan members are shown how to mark their ballots appropriately. He added that although attendance at these sessions is not obligatory, the fact that participants receive extra allotments of rice, flour, sugar, and cooking oil has ensured "virtually 100 percent" participation with not a few clansmen undergoing the preparation more than once. Tribes and Incumbents -------------- ¶4. (C) A curious fact remarked on by a number of contacts is that the ballot lists do not include the candidates' family (tribal) names. Instead, their given, fathers' given, and grandfathers' given and second names are listed. According to the Karbala GEO, the omission of family names was intended to discourage voters from supporting candidates solely on the basis of their perceived tribal affiliations (or lack thereof). However, fathers' and more often grandfathers' names -- such as "Tarkan" (Turkish) or Murtada (Iranian) -- also can provide clues to candidates' backgrounds. ¶5. (C) Local media representatives have told us privately that they believe the omission of family names will enable unpopular incumbents to evade detection. They reason that Qunpopular incumbents to evade detection. They reason that prominent figures such as Governor Aqeel Mahmoud al-Khazali (Da'wa) and Acting PC Chairman Abd al-Al al-Yasiri (independent) are equally well known by their family as by their given names. Eliminating the one, they say, affords them greater anonymity and the chance to receive votes from citizens who otherwise would avoid selecting them. Septel will detail the alleged machinations of unpopular incumbents. Money Talks -------------- ¶6. (C) As in elections nearly everywhere, money is viewed as a corrupting influence. According to reform-minded contacts here, well-financed candidates have bought from within their ranks the top, and most advantageous, spots on the majority of lists. The presumption is that many voters, out of laziness or haste, simply will mark the number-one candidate from the list they select. Our conversations with candidates lend credence to this view; several have bragged about bagging the top slots on their lists, although -- not surprisingly -- none admitted to acquiring it through BAGHDAD 00000130 002 OF 002 anything but luck. (Note: In some cases, quite literally. Governor Aqeel is number nine on a list that is headed by the Director General (DG) of Agriculture. Aqeel told the PRT that positions on the list were determined by drawing lots. It should be noted that some speculate the DG has family money because he lives in a style one doesn't usually associate with a public servant. End Note.) ¶7. (C) More insidiously, we have heard allegations that some candidates are buying votes. The going rate, official contacts and others have told us, is 100,000 Iraqi dinars (about $85). Those who agree to sell their votes reportedly are made to swear on the Qur'an that they will not renege and vote for someone else, but there is nothing to prevent them from doing just that. One tribal candidate confided to a PRT employee on January 12 that the vote-buying has become so prevalent -- particularly on the part of unpopular incumbents -- that he worries he could lose in spite of heading his list. As a prominent business as well as tribal leader, defeat would be humiliating, and so he, too, is considering purchasing support. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) We do not believe the integrity concerns voiced by some here threaten the credibility of the elections. A number of their claims may resonate with citizens already dissatisfied with the government, but most here appear eager to cast their ballots -- if for no other reason than to act upon the "kick the bums out" sentiment many harbor toward the incumbents. The re-election of the most unpopular among the latter, however, has the potential to exacerbate suspicions that the process was corrupted. Should this occur, public statements by some of the most prominent "losers" accepting the results and attesting to their confidence in the balloting process would help to mollify the malcontents, if not convince them that the will of the people prevailed. End Comment. BUTENIS