KRG ELECTIONS: EVERYTHING IN PLACE BUT THE MONEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001295 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014 TAGS: IZ KDEM PGOV SUBJECT: KRG ELECTIONS: EVERYTHING IN PLACE BUT THE MONEY REF: A. BAGHDAD 1149 ¶B. BAGHDAD 1170 Classified By: Acting Political Minister Counselor John Fox for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Elections for the Iraqi Kurdistan Parliament (IKP) and a popular vote for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) president are both scheduled for July 25, 2009. The elections will take place in the three governorates that comprise the KRG (Erbil, Sulaymaniah and Dahuk),with additional absentee voting for KRG residents that live in Baghdad. The elections will be conducted by a closed list, which means that residents will vote for the party that will represent them, but not for specific candidates (the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan will run as a combined list). Forty-two political parties have registered for the IKP race, fifteen of which have formed five coalitions; the KDP-PUK coalition is expected to prevail. Funding for the elections remains in question as PM-authorized funds have not yet been disbursed to the elections commission. End Summary. -------------- Kurdistan Voters Have Options, Though Limited -------------- ¶2. (U) The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) reports that 42 political parties registered to run in the Iraqi Kurdistan Parliament (IKP) elections. Of these, 15 have aligned themselves into five coalition lists; 22 will run as independent entities, and five parties withdrew. The coalition-formation period ended on May 7. Candidate nominations continue for the party lists. As required by law, IKP candidates' criminal records are being checked by the regional Ministry of the Interior (KMoI). DRL-funded grantees NDI and IRI are offering workshops and technical assistance to the political parties. ¶3. (C) The IKP has approved legislation enabling the KRG presidential election on July 25. The requirements are that candidates for president must be 40 years or older, residents of Kurdistan, and able to read and write. IHEC will begin registration for presidential candidates on May 19. At this point, only current KRG President Masoud Barzani is contesting the presidency, though there are unconfirmed reports that the PUK "reform" candidate, Nawshirwan Mustafa, may decide to run. Mustafa, the former PUK Deputy Secretary-General, is running the competing "Change" list for the IKP election -- much to the chagrin of the KDP-PUK leadership. -------------- Waiting for the Money... Again -------------- ¶4. (C) IHEC Chairman Faraj Haydari (aligned with KDP) expressed concern that IHEC has no budget for the KRG elections during a meeting with Poloffs on May 14. With considerable frustration, he explained that the Prime Minister had personally authorized him the funds during a recent conversation, but that disbursement was snagged in the Cabinet Secretariat over who should pay for the elections, the KRG or the GOI. Haydari is seeking an immediate release of the funds both through formal mechanisms (e.g., letters to KRG officials and the Minister of Finance) as well as intensive personal diplomacy. (Comment: Delays between the authorization of funds and their actual disbursement is a chronic, GOI-wide bureaucratic dysfunction. End comment.) Haydari said he will go to the press if the problem is not resolved soon. UNAMI Elections Advisor Sandra Mitchell later told us that the Chairman will not make a public statement without permission from President Barzani. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The emergence of small parties in the IKP race is a Q5. (C) The emergence of small parties in the IKP race is a welcome development in KRG politics, but we do not anticipate a change in the overall power balance maintained by the KDP and the PUK (now running as the Kurdistan Coalition List). As in the past, the KDP and the PUK will likely win fifty seats each in the 111-seat IKP; the small parties will compete for the remainder. We hear that KDP-PUK party leaders have already negotiated that any seats won by the "Change" list will be taken from the PUK's allotment. There will be additional presidential candidates for the KRG elections, none of which are expected to do well against Masoud Barzani. Some of these candidates will "have permission" from KRG leadership to run against Masoud to make the contest appear more legitimate. BAGHDAD 00001295 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The question of who will fund the KRG elections remains problematic and threatens IHEC's timeline. Funding for the KRG elections was supposedly settled weeks ago when the KRG agreed to allow IHEC -- a federal agency -- to administer the elections with the understanding that the federal government would fund the event. Since that agreement was made, the KRG decided to add a second electoral event (the presidential election) to the July 25 date. IHEC reports that the administration of the presidential election will require little more than producing a second ballot. Overall, we think that GOI will honor the arrangement and that the Ministry of Finance will disburse the funds, but every day of delay impacts IHEC,s ability to be ready on time. We are in close contact with IHEC and UNAMI on this issue. BUTENIS