DIWAYINAH: AN ENTHUSIASTIC NEW LEADERSHIP TEAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001259 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR IZ SUBJECT: DIWAYINAH: AN ENTHUSIASTIC NEW LEADERSHIP TEAM GETS TO WORK. Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) After months of infighting, Diwaniyah Province's political players have forged a solid political alliance and begun their work with an enthusiasm that bodes well for the province -- and for the Provincial Reconstruction Team's (PRT's) ties with the new government. In a meeting with visiting Senior Advisor Gordon Gray and the PRT, as in prior meetings with us, the new Da'wa-affiliated Provincial Council (PC) Chair appeared pragmatic and excited to work with the PRT. Judging by an introductory meeting, the new Governor, also Da'wa-affiliated, appears to be cut from the same cloth, although questions linger about his political strength. In meeting with these and other provincial figures, the province's water shortage has been a recurring theme. Expectations of the PRT run high, and having an enthusiastic partner marks a pleasant contrast with our experience under the preceding, ISCI-dominated team. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) The lengthy wait before the seating of a Provincial Council (PC) and appointment of a Governor had begun to raise hackles among the public. Now, with a PC seated and Da'wa provincial party head Salim Hussein Alwan appointed Governor, many of those concerns have dissipated. Over the past few weeks, the PRT has been meeting with PC Chair Jubair Salman Awfi and other PC members, and, along with visiting Senior Advisor Gray, the PRT met with them again and also held an introductory meeting on May 11 with the Governor. -------------- PC Chair: Enthusiastic for Ties with the PRT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) PC Chair Jubair has proven highly accessible to the PRT and has consistently expressed enthusiasm for working together. He preempted the PRT in its initial meeting by suggesting a lunch at Camp Echo for as many of the PC members as would be willing to attend. He also has welcomed the PRT,s suggestion of establishing ties between PC committees and corresponding PRT experts, and the PRTis well on the way to developing such ties. A former qa'da (district) legislator from the town of Hamzah, in the south of the province, he welcomed the PRT,s recent training program in urban planning for qa'da officials and even suggested its expansion to nahiyah (subdistrict) members. ¶4. (C) Heading up a PC whose ruling coalition, the United Diwaniyah Bloc, includes 23 of the PC's 28 members, Jubair has said it creates a solid basis to move ahead. State of Law/Da'wa is the leading party in United Diwaniyah, with National Reform Trend, the Sadrists, Iraqiya, Fadhilah, and the Islamic Loyalty Party also included. In formal meetings with the PRT, he has said that the five PC members not in that bloc, all of whom are from ISCI, do not pose a serious threat. Privately, he has told the PRT that while none of the five hold PC committee chairs, he tried to give them significant committee assignments in hopes of channeling their efforts in constructive directions. In private conversations with other PC members, they have shrugged off ISCI as a force in the Council. ¶5. (C) Jubair and others also have expressed hope, although somewhat less confidence, that the PC's two Sadrists will play a constructive role in the Council. Whether giving the Sadrists the post of Second Deputy PC Chair will successfully co-opt them remains uncertain. -------------- -------------- Governor: Seems Constructive, But Questions Linger -------------- -------------- Q -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Meeting with Gray and the PRT, Governor Alwan expressed satisfaction with both the security situation and political reconciliation among parties in the province. While he cast himself as solidly in charge, the PRT has heard at least a few rumors that he continues in a power struggle with Fadhil Mawat, the province's deputy head of Da'wa and head of the province's Tribal Support Council, who had also been a contender for the governorship. Several of the province's leading sheikhs had favored Mawat, and the Governor has thus reached out to them; one sheikh told us that, shortly after assuming the governorship, Alwan held a meeting for 500 tribal leaders, during which he hinted at giving many of them government jobs. Meanwhile, Diwaniyah city's mayor (protect) is among several who have also said that Alwan is a former Sadrist who is not to be fully trusted. ¶7. (C) Our May 11 meeting with the Governor lent no credence BAGHDAD 00001259 002 OF 002 to that rumor. Asked about his priorities, Alwan focused on the health situation, the budget, provision of essential services, and attracting investors to the province to generate jobs. He also noted that many provincial officials lacked a solid grasp of the Provincial Powers Law. In all these areas, Alwan stressed that he looked forward to working with the PRT. Indeed, when we briefly mentioned the rudiments of an irrigation project being conducted by another PRT, the Governor urged that it be carried out here immediately -- "we're in a hurry to get results," he commented, arguing that the possibility of making some mistakes was outweighed by the prospects of quickly improving the water situation. -------------- A Water Shortage on their Minds -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Indeed, all of the PRT,s interlocutors have focused on what they portray as the serious shortage this year of water for irrigation. The PC Chair has told the PRT that even last year, the province had barely enough water for a large rice crop; this year, it could get 25 percent of last year's allocation, which would preclude growing rice, which is at the core of its agricultural sector. (By other estimates, the province would get 40 percent of last year's allocation.) A prominent sheikh said that he already was planning to plant only half the acreage he owns with rice, and might scale that back even further unless things improve. All of the PRT,s interlocutors see the only solution in a dramatic increase of water from Turkey into Iraq, and believe this will only happen if Washington prevails on Ankara to do so. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Not only does the PRT have the kind of access to provincial leaders that it could have only wished for under their predecessors, but the change in leadership appears even to have shaped the atmosphere among others toward the PRT. The Dean of Qadisiyah University's Law School, who had previously been stand-offish, has suddenly become more open to cooperation; the PRT has at least some hints that this is because the signals from the governor's office have changed. Expectations of the PRT run high, and managing them will be a challenge. End comment. BUTENIS