RRT ERBIL: CAMPAIGN SEASON IN THE KRG--GETTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 001170 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: CAMPAIGN SEASON IN THE KRG--GETTING UGLY ALREADY REF: BAGHDAD 1149 Classified By: RRT TEAM LEADER LUCY TAMLYN FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d). This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team (RRT) cable. ¶1. (C) Summary: Despite the fact that the upcoming elections for the Iraqi Kurdistan parliament (IKP) will be carried out by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) with the expected presence of international observers, members of the reform wing of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) (as well as leaders of minority parties not aligned with the PUK/KDP coalition) are concerned that elections in Sulaimaniyah Governorate will not be free or fair. They report that the PUK has resorted to bribes and threats to coerce support. There are also reports of threats of physical violence. Our contacts say there is pent-up anger among the electorate over the poor quality of public services, and that the PUK monopoly in the province would be threatened by fair, open, honest elections. U.S. dialogue with key Kurdistan Region leadership should stress the importance of allowing the campaign season to proceed without intimidation or harassment of voters of independent lists. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Although the election date has not yet been set for the upcoming elections for the Iraqi Kurdistan Parliament (IKP),formerly known as the Kurdistan National Assembly (KNA),a number of reform-minded members belonging to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) along with leaders of minority parties not aligned with the PUK/KDP coalition have expressed their concerns to RRTOff about the integrity of the election process. To discuss these concerns, RRTOff met with Dana Majed, Governor of Sulaimaniyah; members of the Sulaimaniyah Provincial Council, including the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP),the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU),the Kurdistan Islamic Group (KIG),and the PUK lists in the council; Fareed Asasard, member of the PUK Leadership Committee and head of the Kurdistan Center for Strategic Studies, the PUK think tank; several former members of the PUK Politburo, including Omer Said Ali, Jalal Jawhar, and Mohammad Tawfiq; and former PUK Deputy Secretary General Nawshirwan Mustafa, who has announced registered an independent list called "Change." Concerns about the Integrity of the Elections -------------- ¶3. (SBU) According to members of the PUK's reform wing and leaders of nonaligned minority parties, having the Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC) manage the upcoming Iraqi Kurdistan Parliament (IKP) -- under the watchful eyes of international observers -- is important to carrying out open, honest elections, but will not be enough. While IHEC can monitor polling places, guard and make sure that the proper ink is used, etc., contacts raise concerns that lie outside the purview of IHEC. They allege that the PUK is already resorting to bribery and intimidation. They criticize the manipulation of the media by the PUK (which not only controls the mass media, but also can exercise an unseen hand over what the small, independent press can and cannot say.) They also cite underlying hints of violence. The Carrot and the Stick -------------- ¶4. (C) Former PUK Politburo member Omer Said Ali described the carrot-and-stick approach used by the PUK. Loyal party members may be rewarded with good jobs in the government, even jobs, he says, for which they are not qualified. They may be given houses, cars, money, and other valuables. If they show any indication of disloyalty, however, they may be threatened with the loss of their jobs, or fired outright. Qthreatened with the loss of their jobs, or fired outright. (Comment: Given that a majority of adults are on the public payroll, and that the PUK controls government jobs in Sulaimaniyah, the party does indeed have an economic chokehold on most of the electorate. End Comment). ¶5. (C) Sulaimaniyah Governor Dana Majed confided to RRTOff that the recent firing of seven KRG directors general in Sulaimaniyah for alleged mismanagement and corruption was politically motivated. He claims that some of the directors general were given the choice of keeping their positions on condition that they sign a commitment to the PUK to support their list in the elections, campaign for the party, and encourage their employees to do the same. Governor Majed himself has recently been at odds with the KRG over the draft Provincial Council law which -- in his view -- would gut the powers of the Provincial Councils and centralize all authority in the KRG. The governor told us that the KRG decided to get rid of the directors general, in a manner that violated the law to create chaos and delay which the KRG BAGHDAD 00001170 002 OF 003 could then blame on him. KRG Moves to Shut Down an Independent Media Voice -------------- --- ¶6. (SBU) The PUK and the KDP also appear to be taking steps to muzzle the Kurdistan Region's only independent radio station, the extremely popular Radio Nawa. Kurda Hassan, Radio Nawa's director, told a local RRT staff member that the PUK officials had informed him that the station's contract allowing him to broadcast over PUK-controlled towers in Sulaimaniyah would be unilaterally voided. Hassan said that a senior PUK official told him that the move was "payback" for Hassan's role in helping launch the Kurdistan News Network (KNN),owned by former PUK Secretary General Nawshirwan Mustafa, who has become Talabani's chief political rival. (Comment: Given the low educational level of the average person in Kurdistan, newspaper readership is low. The population at large relies on broadcast media -- such as Radio Nawa -- for news. End Comment). Fears of Violence -------------- ¶7. (C) Former PUK Politburo member Jalal Jawhar described ways in which the PUK insinuates the threat of violence. He reported that PUK officials have taken to calling Nawshirwan's list, alternately, agents of Turkey and agents of Iran, and even agents of the U.S. and the UK. He stated that the PUK is putting out the argument that Nawshirwan's list is "betraying" the Kurds because it is divisive. (Comment: The use of the word "betrayal" has a special resonance because the traditional punishment for betrayal in this region has been execution. End Comment). Along these lines, Islamic extremist Mullah Krekar, under house-arrest in Norway, has recently made media announcements that he would support Nawshirwan's list over the KDP/PUK coalition -- even over the Islamic parties -- because Nawshirwan had a chance to win. (Comment: We cannot comment on whether Krekar was put up to this by others, but what is interesting is that the reaction among our contacts is that Krekar's statement is part of a "smear campaign" that has already been started to discredit Nawshirwan. End Comment). ¶8. (C) Jalal Jawhar also reported that that he has heard through his own channels that the Director General of Asayish (Security) in Sulaimaniyah, Hakim Qadir, has been claiming that he had information that Ansar al-Islam was plotting to assassinate high-profile Kurdish leaders, including Nawshirwan. No one believes that Ansar al-Islam is behind any such plot, Jalal Jawhar observed. He said there are only two reasons to speak like this: first, to put people on the alert that their life is in danger; and second, if something nefarious does happen, to insulate the PUK from responsibility or blame. ¶9. (C) Our contacts take the threat of violence seriously. Omer Said Ali mentioned two specific instances when local party leaders who had supported reformers were murdered during the 2006 elections within the PUK. According to Omer Said Ali, the murders were never investigated, but rather covered up. Omer Said Ali also recalled the political violence that took place during the 2005 elections, when five members of the Kurdistan Islamic Union (running on an independent list) were killed and seven KIU offices burned down in Dohuk. According to Ali, the act was believed to have been instigated by the KDP. PUK and KDP Face Real Competition for the First Time -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) PUK Leadership Committee member Fareed Asasard told us that the PUK and the KDP are both seriously concerned because this is the first time that have faced serious Qbecause this is the first time that have faced serious competition. There is anger among the public over the lack of public services and corruption, he noted. He related a report about an ordinary peshmerga (soldier),subsisting on a salary of $50 per month, who said he would rather cut off his finger and feed it to the dogs than vote for the PUK. The dissatisfaction comes not only from the general public, but also from among the families of the political elite. Although Fareed Asasard is not identified with the reformers, he gave his own situation as an example. After describing his own privileged economic situation as a member of the senior PUK leadership, he admitted that he too was unhappy with the current situation. He wants change, he said, because the people need change. In Fareed Asasard's opinion, both the PUK and the KDP would lose throughout the Kurdistan Region if there were open, honest elections free of threats and intimidation. Pleas for U.S. Help to Advance Democracy in the KRG BAGHDAD 00001170 003 OF 003 -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) Every one of our interlocutors expressed gratitude toward America for liberating them from Saddam Hussein and for all the sacrifices the U.S. has made in assisting them. They noted that in only a few years, the rest of Iraq has become "more democratic" than the Kurdistan Region, even though the Kurdistan Region has enjoyed autonomy since 1991. They are asking that the U.S. help push the KRG to make this region more democratic. Several people also expressed their concern to us after reading media reports that the U.S. was not neutral in the elections, but favored the PUK and the KDP because they represented stability, which is in America's interest. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) While the KDP/PUK coalition is unlikely to lose its majority in the IKP, it would certainly face a more robust opposition in the Kurdish Parliament if elections were to be free and fair. This would provide the opposition a forum -- which it would not be afraid to use -- and embolden those sitting on the sidelines who are afraid to identify with reform movements. For those in the KDP/PUK coalition who seek to retain an uncontested grip on power, this prospect is deeply disturbing. Politics can be an ugly business, and campaign seasons can bring out the worst. U.S. dialogue with key Kurdistan Region leadership should stress the importance of allowing the campaign season to proceed without intimidation or harassment of voters or independent lists and without interference in the independent media. U.S. statements to the media along these lines are also important, and will be noted by those in the Kurdistan Region who look to the United States to support the same kind of democratic progress in the Kurdistan Region which it has supported elsewhere in Iraq. End Comment. HILL