SAMARRAI TELLS IHEC TO BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 001158 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: SAMARRAI TELLS IHEC TO BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO PARLIAMENT Classified By: PMIN Robert Ford for reasons 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: According to UNAMI's Chief Elections Advisor, Speaker of Parliament Ayad Samarrai told the Board of Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) April 27 that Parliament would use the 2005 elections law for the upcoming parliamentary elections. He would entertain amendments, he said, but there will be no new election law. The 2005 law provides for closed lists; there was no discussion of amending the law to use an open list. Samarrai and the IHEC Board also discussed ambiguous language in Article 56 oQfQQQ!Q5 Judiciary (IHEC would still do logistics and oversee operations). The Commissioners opposed this, but the issue was not resolved. Samarrai pledged to consult with IHEC on proposed election law amendments. The IHEC Board requested that future election laws include budget provisions to prevent delays with the Ministry of Finance; getting funds disbursed in a timely manner was a problem during the preparations for the provincial elections. Mitchell recommended that any amendments to the 2005 law should focus first on enabling an effective voter registration update, which should be completed ahead of national parliamentary elections. There was no discussion of amending the 2005 election law to provide for open lists. -------------- Election Date Ambiguity -------------- ¶4. (C) Samarrai asked for the IHEC Board's opinion on when elections should be held. Commissioner Qasim Abodi, IHEC's unofficial Spokesman, told the Speaker that the language in the Constitution was ambiguous, and could be interpreted to call for elections to be held on November 15 as well as in Qcall for elections to be held on November 15 as well as in January, which up until recently has been IHEC's target date. Chairman Haydari, supported by Mitchell, argued for January, as this would give IHEC more time to prepare, but he provided Samarrai with timelines and budgets for both dates. According to Mitchell, Samarrai favors January. (Note: The dispute in a nutshell: Article 56 of the Constitution stipulates that parliament's term "shall be four calendar years" and ends "with the conclusion of the fourth year." Some contend that the legislative term will end on March 16, 2010, four years after parliament held its first session. Factoring in the requirement that elections must be held 45 days before the end of the legislative term, elections would occur in January. Others argue that parliament's term will end on December 31, 2009, as this will be the conclusion of the fourth calendar year, triggering elections on November ¶15. End note.) ¶5. (C) The elections date was the top subject of conversation during Poloffs' April 26 meeting with Mitchell BAGHDAD 00001158 002 OF 003 and Chairman Haidari which grew to include Abodi, Deputy Chairman Dr. Usama Ani, and Commissioner Ayad Hussein. Haydari expressed concern over recent rumors that some parliamentarians would seek to postpone elections by extending parliament's term by a year. Noting a "media campaign" against IHEC, he worried that they might try to dismiss him and possibly even the whole Board to create a pretext for delaying the elections: if IHEC isn't operational, it can't conduct elections. (Note: Samarrai later that day issued a press release stating that those Members who were calling for an extension of parliament's term "do not voice the opinion of political blocs or the (parliament's) presidency," and affirmed that the elections would be held in accordance with the constitutionally established timeline. End note.) ¶6. (C) Abodi deliberately steered the conversation to the November 15 issue, disingenuously claiming he didn't have a position either way; it would be for the Federal Supreme Court to decide. When Poloff asked who would initiate such a case, Abodi demurred. Haydari and Ani, clearly annoyed by Abodi, countered that IHEC needed as much time as possible to prepare for the national elections. In an assessment Mitchell shared, it would be difficult for IHEC to administer a full voter registry update and complete procurements and preparations for a national election in that time frame. Deputy PolCons, stressing the complexity and importance of the national elections, expressed strong support for a date by January. -------------- Security Agreement Referendum: No Movement -------------- ¶7. (C) The Security Agreement referendum was briefly touched upon during a general discussion of the 2009 electoral calendar. The Commissioners provided an overview of what IHEC requires from parliament with regard to the Security Agreement and constitutional referenda, the Kirkuk provincial council elections, and parliamentary elections (interestingly, there was no discussion of district and sub-district elections). For the referenda, the Commissioners told Samarrai that for IHEC to begin its preparations, parliament must pass a law funding the referendum and establishing thresholds for turnout and passage, specifying the questions to be asked, and setting voter eligibility requirements. Samarrai reportedly made no comment on the Security Agreement referendum. There has been no action in parliament to initiate the referendum. The only action IHEC has taken has been to send parliament a pro forma request on April 14 for a Security Agreement referendum law. -------------- Needed: Better IHEC Outreach to Parliament -------------- ¶8. (C) Samarrai told the commissioners that IHEC's failure to submit a report on the provincial elections to the parliament, as well as its chronic delinquency on regular reporting and briefings, has left it vulnerable to attacks in the parliament and the media. There are many questions on the complaints resolution process and seat allocation procedures, and the lack of clarifying information from parliament had engendered "gossip" and suspicion. In response, IHEC Chairman Haydari undertook to create a committee of commissioners (along with Mitchell) that will regularly consult with parliament to improve communication and IHEC's image. Samarrai also asked UNAMI to provide a report, which Mitchell agreed to do. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The relationship between the IHEC Board and the new Q9. (C) The relationship between the IHEC Board and the new Speaker of Parliament is pivotal to the successful conduct of national parliamentary elections. As Iraq moves toward this electoral event, the parliament, the political blocs, and IHEC are negotiating the complex political landscape that has formed in the aftermath of the January provincial elections. While the successful conduct of the provincial elections has enhanced its prestige, IHEC has to improve its outreach to parliament and the political blocs. Mitchell told Poloffs that Samarrai's criticism of IHEC's poor communication with parliament was justified, and acknowledged that this has been a long-standing problem. That Chairman Faraj is taking corrective action is a good thing. IHEC will depend on strong relationships with parliament and the Speaker if it wants to achieve its broader goals of increasing its permanent staff, converting staff to civil service status, and pursuing procurement of sophisticated (and expensive) voting equipment. Improved IHEC outreach to parliamentarians BAGHDAD 00001158 003 OF 003 and political leaders will also enhance voter education efforts in the run-up to national elections. ¶10. (C) The fact that open lists were not discussed during the IHEC-Samarrai meeting paired with the latter's determination that the 2005 election law will be used suggests that Samarai's preference is for a closed list. We note that Sami al-Askari, a Dawa parliamentary leader and close confidant of the Prime Minister, told Poloffs recently that Dawa strongly prefers an open list. On the election date, we don't know why the ISCI-affiliated Commissioner Abodi is pushing for a November election date. That he felt free to contradict his nominal boss in our meeting as well as in the meeting with Samarrai says a lot about IHEC's internal dynamics. This is not the first time IHEC has been internally uncoordinated. Sandra Mitchell predicts that, given Samarrai's support, elections will indeed take place in January 2010. We continue to see no action in parliament on the Security Agreement referendum, although some contacts tell us that the Kut operation may change this, and that the PM's opponents in parliament might push for the referendum to gain advantage as they position themselves for national elections. We are monitoring this closely. HILL