DISPLACED FAMILIES IN BAGHDAD DESCRIBE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAGHDAD 001138 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2014 TAGS: IZ PREF PGOV PREL SUBJECT: DISPLACED FAMILIES IN BAGHDAD DESCRIBE RESETTLEMENT PROCESS; COMPLIMENT IRAQI ARMY ROLE, EXPRESS SOME CONCERN OVER U.S. TROOP PULLOUT Classified By: Political Deputy Counselor, John G. Fox, reasons 1.4 b/d . ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Embassy Poloff, Refcoord, and Embedded PRT governance specialist met April 26 with approximately 15 displaced (IDP) families in Baghdad's Hurriya neighborhood, in 2006-2007 the site of some of the capital's most intense sectarian violence. Most heads of household said they had confidence in the IA and described its essential role in their resettlement and security. Some expressed concern about the upcoming departure of U.S. troops, as well as frustrations with GOI bureaucratic delays in assisting them (about half had received the one-million Dinar payments for returnees promised by the GOI; others had not yet applied). The local IA commander claimed that a majority of IDPs in his area had returned. Local market workers noted a recent downturn in business, which they believed was tied to global conditions; two tea shop owners said they feared the "infiltration" of ISF, and renewed violence once U.S. units pulled back. END SUMMARY. -------------- IDPS: IRAQI ARMY ROLE KEY; PROCESS OUTLINED BY IA CDR -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Embassy Poloff, Refcoord, and Embedded PRT governance specialist met April 26 with approximately 15 displaced (IDP) families in Baghdad's Hurriya neighborhood. The IA captain in charge of the northeastern section of Hurriya outlined the procedures his army unit had followed to help resettle displaced (mostly Sunni Arab) families. He showed detailed record books listing the locations of IDP households and any associated complaints. He estimated that, of the 450 original families displaced from his section of Hurriya by sectarian violence in 2006, 294 had returned. Another 100 had chosen to lease their properties and not return. COMMENT: The relatively high return rate in this section seems to stem from the assertive role taken by this particular IA commander, who has worked closely with his U.S. counterpart on resettlement, and a sense of improved security in this part of Hurriya. Other areas have not similarly had this level of IDP returns, probably due to varying degrees of security and still wary perceptions among some Sunnis that past Shia militia activity is only dormant -- not gone. END COMMENT. �A;¶3. (SBU) The IA commander outlined the steps IDP families and IA soldiers take once returnees decide to return to Hurriya. IDPs advise the IA's "resettlement office" of their plans and prior location; the IA then confirms the address and ownership of their property in Hurriya, gives notice to any squatters to vacate, checks the property for security problems (or booby traps),then shepherds them back into their homes. These families then become eligible for one-million Dinar assistance payments from the GOI. The local IA leader said his men regularly patrolled returnee neighborhoods. NOTE: The U.S. company commander confirmed that the IA had been doing this, including conducting joint patrols. END NOTE. -------------- SUNNI MOSQUES AS FORTS? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The sessions in Hurriya with approximately 15 IDP families were held at a Sunni mosque that was also being used Qfamilies were held at a Sunni mosque that was also being used as an IA operating base. Nine of the 14 Sunni mosques in the area had been occupied by (predominately Shia) IA; both the IA and U.S. military commanders said this had been necessary to prevent attacks on the mosques and/or looting. Reportedly, in some of these locations, the IA had made arrangements to continue to allow Sunnis to use them for prayer services. NOTE: The IA commander said plans are in place to repair the mosques and vacate them, though he did not know when this would happen. The U.S. commander noted that the IA had told him they wanted to be out of such locations by October. In a prior meeting, Hurriya community leaders had told us that the repair and reopening of Sunni BAGHDAD 00001138 002 OF 004 mosques would be an important signal of community restoration and would prompt more Sunni returns. END NOTE. -------------- IDP FAMILIES: FEEL SAFE, FOR NOW BUT STILL UNEASY ABOUT FUTURE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Six separate groups of returnees represented the approximately 15 families. All were Sunni Arab, except for one head of household who identified himself as Shia. Highlights include the following comments (verbatim): IDP GROUP ONE (elderly woman, a teacher, and young girl) -------------- "Since we have been back, we feel secure now -- but this was not the case in the beginning. We had a bullet shot at our balcony. The IA came and are investigating it." "In the bad days, we were attacked from all four sides. We fled to Mansour. When PM Maliki asked us to return, we did, after his September 1 announcement. All credit goes to the IA; they check on us all the time." "We just received the one-million Dinar payment; it took six months. We have not received any assistance from NGOs. Some other families are still waiting to see how things turn out before returning." IDP GROUP TWO (male laborer, Shia) -------------- "Once Saddam's government fell, there was chaos. Violence pushed by politicians caused the problems and lack of security. My son-in-law was killed. When we received a bullet in an envelope, we fled. We have lost everything, we left with only our clothes." "There is a lot of government bureaucracy before receiving the returnee payment, too much duplication of information." "Most Sunnis and Shia seem to be tired of the violence -- all we want is a normal life." "Americans should consider keeping bases in Iraq; if your troops leave Iraq, there will be chaos; you must continue to be near the government and watch it." IDP GROUP THREE (two elderly women, two younger women, one young girl) -------------- "We left in December 2006. One of our mothers was killed then. We only returned last September." "If not for the IA, it would have been impossible to return to live here." "Some of us still do not feel secure; we will stay only because the IA are here; we have nowhere else to go." "Many of our Sunni men still do not feel comfortable going out." "When U.S. troops leave, things might go back to what they were -- but we must have faith in the IA." (NOTE: Two of the women said they had received the one million dinar payment.) IDP GROUP FOUR (two elderly women, one child) -------------- "We left on December 9, 2006, when it was very bad here; none of our family members were killed but we were all threatened. We returned October 5, 2008. For the two years we were gone, BAGHDAD 00001138 003 OF 004 we have lived without dignity in mud houses and without rations." "We heard the situation had gotten better, so we came back. We feel safe." (NOTE: None in this group had yet applied for the returnee payment.) IDP GROUP FIVE (three women, one man, one young girl) -------------- "We left Hurriya on December 9, 2006, when the violence and killing were raging in every street. It was a fierce attack that day, which seemed orchestrated against us. The IA and U.S. troops helped us leave. We returned in September. We had heard Hurriya was safe again. Our home had been occupied, furniture stolen. The IA helped get the people out of our house." "We feel safe with the IA here; in some areas, the police help as well." "We are very nervous when we hear that U.S. troops are leaving Iraq. All we want is security for our families." IDP GROUP SIX (four men) -------------- "We left on December 9, 2006, returned last September. Each week the IA visit and ask if we have had any threats" "We have applied for the government payment, but it is still in process." -------------- LOCAL MARKET: SLOWER BUSINESS; ISF INFILTRATED BY MILITIAS? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) During a 45-minute walk in one of the major Hurriya markets, several shopkeepers offered views about IDPs and security in the area. One butcher estimated that about 25 percent of IDP families had returned, based on how many visited the market today compared with the past. He said the IA was in "90 percent control" of security in Hurriya. When asked about his views of the current government, he said "no comment." ¶7. (SBU) Another shopkeeper (selling clothes for small children) complained about declining business, remarking "same traffic but they spend less." He guessed that the downturn was tied to global economic conditions. Two tea-shop owners expressed concern about "infiltration" in the ISF, "whether you are talking about the army or police." One said Iraqis were worried that the ISF also lacked sufficient weapons, arguing that extremists were better armed. Continued high unemployment among Hurriya's youth guaranteed recruits into illegal or violent activities, "just look around, and see how many young men do not have jobs." Both criticized the low level of electricity from the national grid, with one estimating that the neighborhood received two hours per day; he added that the cost to buy power from generators was 10,000 Dinar for seven hours. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The return of IDPs to Hurriya is an important marker, as it was one of the main epicenters of past sectarian violence. The level of returns appears most directly tied to Sunni residents' sense of IA-led security improvements in the area. Absent the IA, most would not have returned. Those families who have will not stay if IA units do not remain a visible presence for the foreseeable future. Only one IDP family cited the role of police, and few seemed BAGHDAD 00001138 004 OF 004 to view promised GOI payments as a primary incentive. Unease over the June 30 U.S. troop departure was evident with many (both among IDPs and some shopkeepers). If the Security Agreement transition goes ahead with only isolated pockets of violence, it seems likely more IDPs are set to return to Hurriya. More spectacular suicide-bombing attacks -- and possible Shia militia retaliation -- would slow or reverse this trend. The IDP families were visibly tired (and aged beyond their years),but more than a few were somewhat optimistic, thinking that the darkest days were behind them -- but also realistic and unsurprisingly guarded in their assessments. One shopkeeper put it this way, "All Iraqis have hope. We have to. Even the families who fled Hurriya." HILL