NAJAF STILL AWAITS ELECTION OF NEXT PROVINCIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001094

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: NAJAF STILL AWAITS ELECTION OF NEXT PROVINCIAL
GOVERNMENT

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John G. Fox for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).

This is a PRT Najaf cable.


1. (C) Summary. We continue to await the selection of a new
Governor, his two Deputies, and a host of security and
provincial government appointees. Despite initial optimism
that negotiations had concluded, local personality conflicts,
provincial - central party squabbles and the inclusion of
the once-dominant Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) back
into the Najaf coalition set matters back several weeks.
Violence, questions about the future of the Provincial
Police, and a general feeling of insecurity and concern
plague the province as the political situation remains open
and contentious. End Summary.

2. (SBU) In numerous conversations and meetings over the
past three weeks, PRT Officers discussed the development of
the Najaf political negotiations with former ISCI Governor
Asaad Abu Gelal, Deputy Governor Abdul Hussein Abtan, State
of Law re-elected PC member Sheikh Fayed al Shimmeri,
Independent Union of Najaf leader Zuhair Sharba, members of
their staffs, other former and incoming PC members, and
contacts of Locally Engaged Staff political assistants
representing all of the winning Najaf political entities.
Week One (April 5-11): The "State of Law Five"; ISCI excluded
--------------

3. (C) Through Da,wa State of Law Provincial Council
members, Governor Asaad, and Independent Union spokesman
Zuhair Sharba, PRT Officers learned that Maliki had secured
the support of three of the six local political lists with
seats on the PC, including the Maliki-affiliated State of
Law, former Governor Adnan al Zurfi,s Loyalty to Najaf, and
former PM Jaafari,s Reform Trend, and that he had eventually
allied with the Sadrist Free Trend and Independent Union of
Najaf PC members as well, for a total of 21 of 28 total
seats. ISCI,s Martyrs of the Mihrab seven seats, led by
former Deputy Governor Abtan, began to openly admit defeat
and began to refine their strategy as the Najaf opposition
party.

4. (C) For a brief period before the Sadrists and
Independents joined the Maliki coalition, outgoing Deputy
GoverQk,kdQw&%=9Qwhen several
contacts, including the Governor himself, informed us that
Maliki had settled on current Governor Asaad Abu Gelal as his
choice to remain Governor. According to Governor Asaad,
Maliki wanted to bring ISCI back into the Najaf political
fold by choosing a moderate and independent ISCI member.
Many contacts speculated and widely assumed that Maliki was
playing a larger game to secure ISCI,s inclusion within a
larger Shia political movement and that his office was
willing to make concessions to ISCI in South-Central Iraq in
order to achieve this goal. Governor Asaad, though
occasionally feigning reluctance in meeting with PRT officers
to accept another term, proved willing to continue on.

7. (C) ISCI,s core, led in Najaf by Deputy Governor
Abtan, had no desire to allow Governor Asaad to live on
politically as an ISCI apostate and vociferously denounced

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the idea that his selection was favored by ISCI in the Najaf
provincial government. Abtan,s position was that only he
and his prominent vote-getting position at the top of the
ISCI list could count as meaningful ISCI representation. The
Asaad -Abtan feud witnessed by the PRT over the last several
months in the Governance Center had thus suddenly resurfaced
as a political obstacle to seating the Najaf government.
Sheikh Fayed told the PRT, &if Asaad is not accepted as
Governor, we will have to start from the beginning and redraw
the entire political map for the province.8
Week Three (April 19-23): The Sadrists Re-Emerge
--------------

8. (C) Following the breakdown of negotiations caused by the
intramural ISCI feud, rumor and whim began to circulate among
top negotiators. New names for Governor were bruited almost
daily. The parties were preoccupied with electing the
Council's leadership, and hoped to do this in coordination
with the selection of the Governor and Deputy Governor in
order to negotiate on as broad a board as possible. At
length, Sheikh Fayed al Shimmeri, top State of Law negotiator
and PC member, was elected Council Chairman and Khudair Al
Jaburi, Independent Union of Najaf candidate and major of
Manathera district, became his deputy.

9. (C) Meanwhile, the Loyalty to Najaf list, headed by
Ministry of Interior intelligence official and former CPA
governor of Najaf Adnan al Zurfi, was making a strong play
for Governor, either for Zurfi himself or for popular Kufa
academician Dr. Nizar Al Nafakh. The strongest players,
however, became the Sadrists again and their six Free Trend
seats. With Da,wa perceived to have already received a
power position (the PC Chairmanship),the Sadrists began a
campaign either to snag the governorship for themselves or,
failing that, to emerge as the kingmaker for the job. And
there the matter stands.

10. (C) Comment: Once perceived as holding almost all of
the cards as a result of his victory in the provincial
election, Maliki,s influence appears to have waned in the
last week as a result of his failure to broker an efficient
compromise after the election. The local Da,wa list
publicly released a letter condemning Maliki,s selection of
an ISCI associate for Governor. Sheikh Fayed and the State
of Law crowd still believe the Governor's position to be
rightfully theirs. Anything is still possible, from a
Sadrist Governor to a relooking at Governor Asaad ) or even
Abtan ) to an outsider such as Sodiq al Laban appointed at
the last moment. PRT Officers have ensured open lines of
communication with all party leaders except the Sadrists and
are prepared to instantly engage whoever emerges victorious.
END COMMENT.

BUTENIS