INTERNATIONAL COMPACT WITH IRAQ - STATE OF PLAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001056 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV EFIN EAID PREL IZ SUBJECT: INTERNATIONAL COMPACT WITH IRAQ - STATE OF PLAY AND NEXT STEPS REF: STATE 29981 Classified By: EMIN Marc Wall, Reasons 1.4 b, d ¶1. (C) Summary: Skepticism over the significance of the International Compact with Iraq (ICI) has begun to grow among donors as Iraq has shifted its focus to developing bilateral political, economic, and military agreements. Many donor countries have demanded a streamlined ICI. Prime Minister Maliki reportedly has no appetite for the ICI but may seek to hold an ICI ministerial in Baghdad for political reasons. Others in his cabinet have shown mixed signs of interest. The World Bank believes holding the ICI Ministerial in Baghdad in October would give Iraq international recognition and acknowledge the successes of the ICI. For the Iraq Consultative Group meeting, now planned for Baghdad in May, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) plans to focus on "winding down the ICI." Representatives of the U.K. and Japan have expressed lukewarm views on the future of the ICI and mixed responses on attracting high-level participation for a ministerial. End summary. UN: ICI Will Wind Down -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In late March, UNAMI Deputy Secretary Special Representative of the Secretary-General (DSRSG) David Shearer presented an "Outline Paper" to representatives of the U.S., U.K., Japan, Denmark, EC, and the World Bank that suggested the ICI should link Iraq's development priorities with international assistance. The paper proposed three pillars of support for the ICI: governance for development and reconciliation; state restructuring for economic growth; and international normalization, trade and investment. It stated that the ICI should reflect priority stages of Iraq's future engagement with the UN that will be detailed in the upcoming Common Country Assistance and UN Development Assistance Framework process. ¶3. (C) In a March 29 meeting with Charge d,Affaires Butenis, Shearer said that the Iraq Consultative Group Meeting will be held in Baghdad in May and that Ibrahim Gambari, the Special Advisor to the Secretary-General on the ICI, might attend. Shearer mentioned that UNAMI plans to make adjustments and set the stage for "winding down the ICI" at the May meeting. Shearer commented that Prime Minister Maliki "does not have an appetite for the ICI." ¶4. (C) Catherine Haswell, UNAMI Programme Policy Officer for Economic Reform, Humanitarian, Reconstruction and Development Unit, told econoffs on April 15 that the UN does not envision an ICI for 2010. As we transition out of the ICI, she added, it is important to show that the ICI was a success. Haswell questioned the utility of crafting a new ICI program prior to the upcoming elections and expecting a newly-elected Iraq government to engage with it. The UN is aware of PM Maliki's interest in holding the ICI Ministerial in Baghdad to raise Iraq,s international standing during an election year. She added that the decision on whether to hold it in Baghdad should become clearer after the Iraq Consultative Group Meeting. GOI Efforts on ICI -------------- ¶5. (C) The ICI Secretariat, though understaffed and lacking high-level GOI support, has been tracking ongoing donor activities, and plans to publish a report on all donor activities performed under the ICI. The staff also recently modified the ICI benchmarks and simplified the Joint Monitoring Matrix. While the Secretariat does not coordinate GOI activities, Thamir Ghadban, the Prime Minister's Senior QGOI activities, Thamir Ghadban, the Prime Minister's Senior Advisor, handles ICI policy planning within the GOI and has organized the thematic working group meetings since January. The Ministry of Planning is responsible for implementing the Paris Declaration for Aid Effectiveness mandate for donor country coordination. DPM Barham Salih, who has made strong statements supporting the ICI in the past, has been only marginally engaged on this issue in recent months. World Bank: Iraq Wants Recognition with the ICI -------------- ¶6. (C) Yahia Said, resident Senior Public Sector Specialist for the World Bank, told econoffs on April 15 that the ICI Ministerial must be held in Baghdad or "it won't happen." He stressed that Iraq needs international recognition and publicity and that the GOI is very interested in holding the ICI Ministerial in Baghdad. With the GOI and the UN both BAGHDAD 00001056 002 OF 002 already on board for a ministerial in October, Said explained, the co-chairs are already in agreement. With an October ICI Ministerial in Baghdad, the GOI would have a great incentive for the next six months to work towards ICI goals, he added. Said views the ministerial as an opportunity for the GOI and donors to report on their accomplishments over the past year. If the ICI served Iraq well, he stressed, there must be a way to honor that. UK: ICI Now a Symbolic Issue For All Sides -------------- ¶7. (C) Richard Hogg, head of the UK Department for International Development's Iraq Office, told econoffs that "winding down" the ICI is a good idea. Hogg said that he viewed the ICI as 8a dead horse8 that was still being flogged, but that London tended to place more hope in the ICI's future. The U.K. would likely send its foreign minister, if available, to the ICI Ministerial as a symbolic gesture of support and try its best to make the ICI work and get something productive out of it. He added that the British Ambassador will likely represent the U.K. at the Iraq Consultative Group Meeting in May. ¶8. (C) Hogg said that the ICI has become complicated by politics. Hogg revealed that when Iraq Foreign Minister Hoshyar Mahmud Zebari and Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih were discussing the ICI, FM Zebari said that as far as Prime Minister Maliki is concerned, the "ICI is dead." This conversation, according to Hogg, occurred after DPM Salih and PM Maliki had agreed to host the ICI Ministerial in October in Baghdad. The real reason for PM Maliki's support for the ICI is political, he said. According to Hogg, PM Maliki sees the ICI as an infringement of Iraq's sovereignty; however, visiting foreign ministers attending an international meeting hosted in Iraq would "burnish his (Maliki's) image for the elections." The GOI, Hogg concluded, has no real energy for the ICI. Japan: Hold ICI in Baghdad -------------- ¶9. (C) Kansuke Nagaoka, Minister Counselor of the Japanese Embassy, told econoffs on April 13 that the ICI has progressed on security and political issues, but not on socio-economic ones. He said that the ICI is the linchpin for assembling donors in a coordinated manner, and Iraq still needs unified and coordinated assistance. In principle, the ICI Ministerial should be held in Baghdad. Iraq would "win big", and the international community should strive for some positive results at this ICI Ministerial. However, if the ICI Ministerial were held in Baghdad, the Japanese government will likely not send the Foreign Minister because of logistical difficulties. Japan might even have a new government after the summer, he added, making it more difficult to send a high-level representative to attend. ¶10. (C) Nagaoka hoped that any future iteration of the ICI would focus on the socio-economic benchmarks which remain unaddressed. The remaining benchmarks should be reduced to show that ICI has reached most of its objectives. Nagaoka urged that a meeting among the donors and UNAMI DSRSG David Shearer take place to discuss UNAMI's Outline Paper before the Iraq Consultative Group Meeting. Next Steps: ICI,s Future -------------- ¶11. (C) Comment: Donor representatives have requested a meeting with DPM Salih to discuss the future of the ICI. Discussions with him should focus on the future of the ICI and how to streamline its activities so that it has future Qand how to streamline its activities so that it has future relevance in light of Iraq,s increasing bilateral engagements . While the ICI has facilitated Iraq,s interactions with other donors, the Iraq Consultative Group Meeting presents an opportunity to gauge Iraq,s commitment to the ICI and work towards streamlining the process. Holding a ministerial in Baghdad will attract high-level GOI interest in the Compact, and provide the GOI with an incentive to work towards re-focused ICI goals. We will need to continue coordinating with donor countries on both short and long term approaches. Following confirmation of an ICI ministerial, Post will consult with the Department to consider appropriate USG participation. End Comment. BUTENIS