Ambassador, FM on Resetting Bilateral Relations,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ATHENS 000695 SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO S/E HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/04/30 TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS TU AF GR SUBJECT: Ambassador, FM on Resetting Bilateral Relations, OSCE/Georgia, Turkey and Afghanistan REF: ATHENS 657 CLASSIFIED BY: Daniel Speckhard, Ambassador, DOS, U.S. Embassy Athens; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting with FM Bakoyiannis on April 30, Ambassador Speckhard outlined our strategy for re-focusing the U.S.-Greece bilateral relationship toward common strategic challenges, and away from the more narrow parochial interests that have defined our relationship in recent years (reftel). Bakoyiannis agreed, but noted that we needed to show concrete results to be successful. Progress on Visa Waiver would be a good foundation -- as would a PM Karamanlis visit to Washington "soon." Noting Greek efforts, as OSCE Chairman, to reach agreement on the Georgia Mission, Ambassador Speckhard suggested that any further consultations be "brisk," so a decision could be put on the table. Progress was important, not least because of the impact on the atmosphere at the proposed Corfu Ministerial. Bakoyiannis said her own deadline was May 15; if there was no progress by May 8, she would call Russian FM Lavrov. She asked for U.S. help with a related issue: Georgian acceptance of plans for the OSCE's Annual Security Review Conference. Bakoyiannis also pressed for confirmation of the Secretary's participation in the Corfu meeting, and raised her concern that continued Turkish military provocations in the Aegean will force a Greek response - which could imply a change in support for Turkey's EU accession. She concluded with a comment on Greek assistance to Afghanistan and a request for support to find women victims of terrorism to participate in her planned "Women Against Terrorism" conference. While she wishes to visit Iraq to open the Greek consulate in Irbil, she had no current plans for travel to Afghanistan, though she said she would consider such a trip before the end of the year in her capacity as OSCE CIO. END SUMMARY. REFOCUSING OUR RELATIONSHIP - ON A NEW FOUNDATION ¶2. (C) Ambassador Speckhard noted that, with the new administration and the Greek public's positive view of President Obama, the United States and Greece had an important opportunity to re-focus our bilateral relationship. While continuing to work on difficult issues such as Cyprus, Macedonia, and Aegean overflights, we should not let them define our relationship. Rather, we should sharpen our focus on common strategic challenges: outreach to the Muslim world; stability in Afghanistan; counter-terrorism, and; non-proliferation (including the Proliferation Security Initiative). Bakoyiannis agreed; this was a unique moment. While issues such as overflights were serious for Greece, there is much more that we can do together - as NATO allies, OSCE partners, and through Greece's connections in the Middle East. Taking up the Ambassador's suggestion on PSI, Bakoyiannis said she would engage again with Greek ship owners (for whom piracy concerns could provide added motivation). ¶3. (C) Bakoyiannis emphasized that our re-focused relationship needed to show concrete results to build a strong foundation; how close were we to agreement on Visa Waiver? Ambassador Speckhard noted that a Greek team would meet with Washington agencies next week to try to close the gap on the last remaining piece (the PCSC). Bakoyiannis pressed for a PM Karamanlis visit to Washington before summer, saying the President and PM had agreed it would be "soon." Ambassador Speckhard pointed out that such a visit should be part of an overall strategy. Bakoyiannis had seen the Secretary in February; President Obama met PM Karamanlis in April; and MoD Meimarakis was in Washington now. With a potential visit by the Secretary to Corfu in June, a Karamanlis visit would not likely occur before autumn (at the earliest). However, we would ask for Washington's thoughts on timing. WORKING THE OSCE GEORGIA MANDATE ¶4. (C) Ambassador Speckhard noted difficulties in reaching agreement with Russia on OSCE's Georgia mission. We understood that the Chairmanship wanted to conduct another round of consultations in Vienna - but it should be brisk. We were frankly skeptical about Russia's willingness to find a solution; the time was coming to put this to decision. Bakoyiannis agreed, saying we were in a "vicious circle." The Russians, she believed, were divided; the military opposed an OSCE mission while the MFA would be willing to agree (after tough negotiations). On the other hand, she did not believe the Georgians were keen on the OSCE office either, though they would never say that. Bakoyiannis said her own deadline was May 15; if no progress had been made by May 8, she would call FM Lavrov. That would be the point at which they would determine whether a mission was feasible or not, and "the Russians will have to take responsibility." Ambassador Speckhard noted that movement on this issue was important, not least because of its potential impact it would have on the atmosphere at the Corfu ministerial. Bakoyiannis took the point, pressing for confirmation of the Secretary's attendance. ¶5. (C) Bakoyiannis added that the Georgians were posing problems on a different issue, the agenda for OSCE's Annual Security Review Conference (ASRC). According to Bakoyiannis, the Georgian FM had initially agreed to the Chair's proposals, only to be vetoed in capital. She asked for U.S. help in getting the Georgians to move forward. WE'LL HAVE TO RESPOND TO TURKISH OVERFLIGHTS ¶6. (C) Bakoyiannis turned the conversation to Turkish military "provocations" in Greek airspace, noting that she understood that President Obama had not raised this issue in Turkey. She said the Greek MFA had reached out to Turkish counterparts at all levels; she herself had just spoken to Turkish FM Babacan directly, stating Greek concerns that the increased tempo and recklessness of Turkish military overflights "cannot continue." The Turks, she said, are buzzing inhabited Greek islands at an altitude of only 300 meters, distressing the people there and violating previous agreements on safety such as the maintenance of airspace between Greek and Turkish planes. Sooner or later, she feared, this would lead to an accident, and the Greek government was under intense pressure to do something. ¶7. (C) Professing not to understand where in the Turkish government the orders are coming from for these provocations, Bakoyiannis said Greece and Turkey need a "positive - or at least neutral atmosphere" in which to discuss improving their relations and address their different views on the Aegean. Noting that President Obama had expressed U.S. support for Turkey's EU accession, Bakoyiannis said Greece, too, has been a key supporter from among the "old EU." However, she said, Turkish military violations in the Aegean will affect the GOG's ability to sustain that support, "and I fear the time is running out." She recognized that diminishing Greece's support would not be in their interest, but they may be left with no choice if the aggressive actions don't stop. AFGHANISTAN ¶8. (C) Ambassador noted that MoD Meimarakis had had good meetings in Washington at which Greece's military contributions in Afghanistan were discussed, and inquired Bakoyiannis' plans for civilian assistance. Bakoyiannis noted that Greece would help in police training, and continue its support for the Hungarian-led PRT. (NOTE: she had her OSCE team in the room but not her Afghanistan team, and appeared not to have been fully briefed on Afghanistan issues. END NOTE). She became animated when discussing her proposed "Women Against Terrorism" conference, which she announced as a theme for her Chairmanship of the OSCE. Indicating that she believes it important to change the message vulnerable populations get, she said this is an area where she foresees a strong symbolic partnership with the U.S. She asked for USG support in identifying "Muslim, Jewish, Hindu, Christian" women victims of terrorism who can send a strong message on its human costs. She said she had mentioned this to Special Envoy Holbrooke who responded enthusiastically. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: On OSCE/Georgia, Bakoyiannis clearly has been actively involved and is seized with the need to move the issue towards a resolution. We expect she will in her characteristically frank and direct style confront Lavrov on Russia's responsibility for the likely failure to agree on a mandate for an observer mission. Her comments on Turkey reflect and sharpen what we are hearing from other sources. The GOG does have a larger strategy to ease Greece-Turkey tensions, in part by leveraging EU accession. However, they are getting more pressure from the Greek public to respond to substantive changes in the nature of the overflights to a frequent buzzing of inhabited islands. While Bakoyianni's outreach to FM Babacan is a positive step, it is clear she feels the government will, at some point, have to respond with more visible steps. Those could heighten tensions, increase the risk of an accident and potential conflict, and detract from U.S. strategic objectives for the region. Efforts to encourage our friends in Ankara to alter their current strategy of overflights of inhabited islands would be a very welcome step by Athens and would reduce the risk of a significant incident. We welcome Embassy Ankara's views on how we can move Greece and Turkey off the path towards either an accident or confrontation that would derail their larger efforts at reconciliation. END COMMENT. SPECKHARD