PAVILIDIS AFFAIR PAINFUL, BUT NOT FATAL, TO RULING ND

UNCLAS ATHENS 000519 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GR SUBJECT: PAVILIDIS AFFAIR PAINFUL, BUT NOT FATAL, TO RULING ND GOVERMENT SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 1.(SBU) In the early hours of April 7, the Greek parliament took steps to deal with the latest scandal plaguing the ruling New Democracy government of PM Costas Karamanlis. The Parliament voted 215 to 67 in favor of opening a special inquiry into whether ND former Minister for the Aegean Aristotle Pavlides had been involved as the "moral instigator" of alleged bribery attempts by an associate. (The associate allegedly sought kickbacks from a shipowner seeking rights to state-subsidized ferry routes.) According to Greek law, incumbent or former ministers may not be subject to criminal charges unless a special parliamentary committee of inquiry lifts their parliamentary immunity, allowing those accused to face trial before a special tribunal. The investigating magistrate, who completed the criminal inquiry into Pavlides' associate, has submitted the case file to the president of parliament with the recommendation that Pavlides be investigated. Pavlides has repeatedly insisted he had nothing to do with his associate's actions and that it was he who first took the case to prosecutors in order to ward off the shipowner's allegations. ¶2. (SBU) The Pavlides case has unsettled ruling ND -- already tense due to the economic crisis and earlier scandals that have damaged the government's image. PM Karamanlis announced the government would not block the opposition's motion for a special inquiry, thus allowing ND lawmakers to cast their votes "according to conscience." The special committee has until April 27 to produce its findings. WILL THE PAVLIDIS AFFAIR TRIGGER NEW ELECTIONS? -------------- -- ¶3. (SBU) The Greek press has been abuzz with speculation over whether the Pavlides affair could trigger the downfall of the government and bring new elections. While theoretically possible, this scenario appears unlikely. If Pavlides decided to resign at any point during or after the process, his seat would be filled with the first ND runner-up from his electoral district of the Dodecanese islands, thus preserving the government's fragile one-seat majority. If, however, Pavlides was eventually ejected from the ND parliamentary caucus, PM Karamanlis would be left with just 150 votes, which would raise the possibility of an opposition censure motion followed by "snap" elections, ND having lost the "declared" confidence of parliament. A government may continue, however, with less than 150 seats in parliament. The only constitutional way of actually forcing a government to resign is to muster 151 votes "against" following a no-confidence motion (Article 84). Thus, even if the entire opposition agreed to vote against the government, it could not muster the required 151 votes (as long as ND maintained strict party discipline.) ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: With opposition PASOK leading in the polls by 3-4 percentage points, Karamanlis has little reason to seek elections now. Despite press focus on June (when European Parliament elections are already scheduled),Karamanlis has every reason to tough it out and try to put this scandal, too, behind him before asking voters for another term. END COMMENT. SPECKHARD