Greece: Uncertainty Reigns as Main Greek Opposition Party

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ATHENS 001587 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY ANKARA PASS TO AMCONSUL ADANA AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL LEIPZIG AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/29 TAGS: PREL PGOV GR SUBJECT: Greece: Uncertainty Reigns as Main Greek Opposition Party Prepares to Choose New Leader ATHENS 00001587 001.2 OF 004 CLASSIFIED BY: Tom Miller, Acting DCM, State, EXEC; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) SUMMARY: 1.(SBU) Following the New Democracy (ND) party's defeat in Greek parliamentary elections October 4 (with the lowest percentage of votes in ND's history),the party is heading into the election of a new leader to replace former Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis with very low morale and in considerable uncertainty over internal party dynamics after a long period of stability. Even the procedures for the election are unclear, with all the candidates agreeing to jettison written party rules that would have authorized a party conference to choose the new leader November 7. Instead, it appears likely the conference will establish procedures for a direct election of the leader by party members in December, with a provision for a second round if no one gets a majority in the first round. 2.(SBU)The leading candidate is former Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis, who has long been seen as the heir to the ND throne. The unsettled situation in the party may make her vulnerable to an upset, however, with polls suggesting her strongest challenger is the more conservative and nationalistic former Culture Minister Antonis Samaras. The third-place candidate, former Health Minister Dimitris Avramopoulos, is the only one who could conceivably step into a middle-ground position between the other two major candidates, and perhaps play the role of a kingmaker. End Summary. EMERGENCY PARTY CONGRESS: 3.(SBU) Karamanlis called an emergency party congress for November 7 to elect his successor as party leader. Soon thereafter, however, all the leading candidates agreed (in Bakoyannis's case, only after significant pressure from her rivals) to an election that would be open to all ND members. Avramopoulos with guarded support from Samaras and marginal candidate Psomiadis has suggested allowing "friends of New Democracy" to vote, muddying the waters further. Because there is no provision in party rules for such an election, the November 7 conference now appears likely to establish the procedures. Although nothing has been finalized, the following scenario has been proposed: During the meeting, the participants will amend the party's constitution so that all party members could take part in a vote to elect a new leader. On December 6, ND would open 1,200 polling stations around the country; some 350,000 ND card-carrying members are on the rolls. If "Friends" of ND are allowed to vote, they would fill out a membership application on the spot and pay a symbolic application fee of 2 euros. For an outright win in the election, a candidate must score 50 percent plus one; in case of no win on the first ballot, a second round will follow, the candidate who is first past the pole wins the election. A runoff is tentatively planned for December 13 if there is no clear winner. 4.(SBU) The conventional wisdom is that the compressed time frame of the election favors Bakoyannis due to her connections with the media, financial ties, and factional support that she has built up over the years. But other factors characterizing the race may work against her. ND supporters have seen their party's popularity fall over the last year while the far-right LAOS party has gained at their expense. Many party members may conclude that a nationalist like Samaras could better protect the party's weakening right flank. Perhaps even more important is the internecine dynamics of ND clan politics. Bakoyannis is the daughter of former Prime Minister (1990-1993) and ND party leader (1984-1993) Constantine Mitsotakis, and the Mitsotakis family has long been seen as a rival ATHENS 00001587 002.2 OF 004 to (and distrusted by) the Karamanlis family dynasty. Many Karamanlis supporters are eager to find a credible alternative to handing the party over to the Mitsotakis family. Polls published in the Greek media in late October suggest Bakoyannis probably does not have enough support to won an outright majority in the first round, and a second round could potentially provide an opportunity for all her opponents to unite against her. 5.(C) This assessment largely jibes with that of ND insider and former Deputy Minister of Finance Peter Doukas, as outlined in a conversation with POL Counselor October 22. Doukas suggested the election defeat, the uncertainty over the future, and the departure of the Karamanlis brand name had created an identity crisis in ND, and the fierce internal campaigning by the leadership candidates was aggravating it. Doukas said the tension was no longer confined to the top of the party, but was percolating down and sowing division at the local levels. Although Doukas was careful to not declare his support for any candidate, and he agreed that Bakoyannis was ahead of her rivals, he cautioned that Samaras was a significant threat to her. Doukas himself, who was linked to the Vatopedion real estate scandal, is biding his time within ND and focused on reviving Embros, a think tank created by his father-in-law, former ND leader Miltiadis Evert. Doukas wishes to make Embros a significant think tank with a market-oriented economic perspective, something he believes will become increasingly salient as the new PASOK government of George Papandreou stakes out what Doukas sees as anti-market positions in response to the global recession. THE CONTENDERS: DORA BAKOYANNIS: 6.(SBU) Former Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis, born in Athens in 1954, was the first female Mayor of Athens in the history of modern Greece. She has served with the Ministry of Economic Coordination working for the Department of European Economic Community (EEC) Affairs (1977); served as the Chief of Staff for ND leader (and her father) Kostantinos Mitsotakis (1984-1989); was a member of Parliament for Evrytania, the constituency of her late first husband, the journalist and scholar Pavlos Bakoyannis, following his assassination by the terrorist group November 17 (1989,1990,1993); was the Minister for Culture (1992); a member of Parliament for the Athens 1st Electoral District (1996,2000,2007); has served as Mayor of Athens (2002-2006); and was the Minister of Foreign Affairs from February 2006 until October 2009. 7.(SBU) She announced her candidacy with a message of unity and a promise of modernizing the party. She is widely considered more moderate than other ND candidates ,especially on foreign policy. While this (and her successful tenure as OSCE Chair-in-Office through most of this year) have won her some supporters, it also leaves her open to criticism that she has not sufficiently protected Greek interests on hot-button issues like Cyprus, Greek-Turkish relations, energy cooperation between Greece and Russia, and the Macedonia name, during her tenure as Foreign Minister. In fact, she has not made her foreign policy experience a major part of her campaign. ANTONIS SAMARAS: 8.(SBU) Former Culture Minister Antonis Samaras, born in Athens in ATHENS 00001587 003.2 OF 004 1951, is a Greek politician and former Member of the European Parliament for New Democracy; part of the European People's Party. He was Greek Minister for Foreign Affairs in the New Democracy government of Konstantinos Mitsotakis (1989-1992). He was ousted from this position after a disagreement regarding the Macedonia name issue in which he believed Mitsotakis' handled the issue too softly. (Comment: In many ways it was Samaras who elevated the name issue to its status as the third rail of Greek politics. End Comment.) After resigning from parliament for 6 months and separating from New Democracy, he reemerged with his own political party, "Political Spring." Political Spring was successful in gaining slight representation from 1992 up until the 2000 election, where it did not participate. Samaras gave his support to New Democracy during this time and in 2004 Samaras rejoined ND and was elected as a MEP in the 2004 European elections. In the 2007 Greek legislative election he was elected to the Greek Parliament for Messinia, and consequently resigned from the European Parliament. In January 2009 he was appointed Minister for Culture. 9.(SBU) Samaras has been concentrating on winning support from ND's youth and student leagues and has been making inroads in northern Greece, in particular. He is considered much more conservative than his opponents, especially Bakoyannis. Samaras hopes to have the support of the Karamanlis clan and its allies, who would like to find an alternative to the Mitsotakis clan represented by Bakoyannis. In fact, there have been rumors ever since Samaras was brought back into the government in early 2009 - after a long period of exile from top posts - that the Karamanlis faction was grooming him for precisely this role. Certainly there is no risk that Samaras would enter into any kind of deal with Bakoyannis: the two have been bitter personal rivals as a result of Samaras's role in bringing down PM Mitsotakis's government. DIMITRIS AVRAMOPOULOS: 10.(SBU) Former Health Minister Dimitris Avramopoulos, born in Athens in 1953, has had a long diplomatic and political career. He has served as a Career Diplomat to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Athens (1980-1993); was Consul of Greece in Liege and Special Diplomatic Advisor to the President and Leader of ND, Costas Mitsotakis (1988-1992); served as the Official Spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign affairs in Athens and was Consul General of Greece to Geneva (1992); and was appointed Director of the Diplomatic Office of the Prime Minister of Greece (1993). In 1993, Avramopoulos resigned from the Greek Diplomatic Service to enter the political arena. As a member of ND and he was elected member of the Central Committee, was elected Deputy Member of the Greek Parliament (1993-1994) and served as Mayor of Athens (1994-2002). In 2001, Avramopoulos founded the short-lived and right-of-center "Free Citizens Movement (KEP) party." After its disbandment in 2002 by Avramopoulos KEP continued to operate as a think tank and Avramopoulos rejoined New Democracy. In 2004 with New Democracy in power, Avramopoulos took the office of Minister of Tourism (2006) and as Minister of Health and Social Solidarity (2006-2009). 11.(SBU) Avramopoulos is generally seen as an ambitious and media-savvy politician, not known for strong principles or lasting alliances within ND. But KEP's short-lived popularity was attributed to Avramopoulos' personal appeal; this charisma could give him some hope in securing the bid. He also appears to be the most likely to strike a deal with his opponents. ) Avramopoulos, in contrast to Samaras, has longstanding ties to the Mitsotakis family, although his political course has taken him in several other directions over the years, and he is appealing for the support of Karamanlis supporters against Bakoyannis in the current contest. PANAGIOTIS PSOMIADIS: ATHENS 00001587 004.2 OF 004 12.(SBU) The least-known candidate in the race, Panagiotis Psomiadis, ND-affiliated prefect of Thessaloniki, was the first to announce candidacy for the post. He was elected to the Thessaloniki city council with ND affiliation (1982); a member of parliament (1990, 1993, 1996,2000); and a prefect of Thessaloniki (2002, 2006). Psomiadis said he was taking a front seat and contesting the ND leadership, but left open the prospect of eventually backing some other major candidacy that would convince him it represents "the platform of the broad center-right." Psomiadis is also considered a hardliner on the Macedonia name issue. Little attention has been given to Psomiadis, making his chances at successfully grasping the leadership spot unlikely. Speckhard