GREEK ELECTION ENTERS HOMESTRETCH

UNCLAS ATHENS 001525 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GR SUBJECT: GREEK ELECTION ENTERS HOMESTRETCH REF: ATHENS 1513 ¶1. (SBU) As all Greek parties finish their parliamentary election campaigns today, October 2, it remains too close to call whether the main opposition PASOK party led by George Papandreou will win enough seats October 4 to form a government on its own. Although we have entered a campaign blackout period in which polls cannot legally be published, unpublished polls reportedly show an unusually large bloc of undecided voters, reaching perhaps 20 percent. PASOK is expected to capture more votes than the ruling New Democracy (ND) party of Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis, with current projections giving PASOK up to 40-41% and ND 36-37%. The Communist Party of Greece (KKE) is expected to garner about 7.5% and the far-right LAOS about 6%. Two other leftist parties, SYN/SYRIZA and the Eco-Greens, have seen their support increase over the course of the campaign and both are now around 3%, the threshold for entering Parliament. PASOK's fortunes may rest on whether these two parties pass the threshold. If both do, PASOK will have to score significantly higher than current projections to win an outright majority. If one of the two passes the threshold it will be extremely close. If neither passes the threshold PASOK should be on track to an outright majority. ¶2. (SBU) Every Greek we've talked to has his or her own prediction for the final numbers, but it is questionable whether very many of them are based on a deep understanding of the complex formula for apportioning seats. The outcome is likely to rest on whose voters turn out in greater (or less) numbers than projected. There is widespread disillusionment with both major parties (especially within ND),making turnout dynamics difficult to predict. Having said that, many of our ND contacts in government have packed out of their government offices. If PASOK falls short of a majority, it will have a strong incentive not to try very hard to form a coalition government but instead to go for a second round of elections in November, which would be conducted under a revised electoral code giving a bigger boost in seats to the party that finishes first. McCarthy