A/S Gordon's June 27 Meeting with Polish FM Sikorski: Russia

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/06/30
TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM PL
SUBJECT: A/S Gordon's June 27 Meeting with Polish FM Sikorski: Russia
Relations, Missile Defense, Eastern Partnership

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CLASSIFIED BY: Philip Gordon, Assistant Secretary; REASON: 1.4(B),
(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: EUR Assistant Secretary Gordon met with Polish
Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on the margins of the June 27-28
NATO-Russia Council and OSCE Informal Ministerial in Corfu, Greece.
Their discussion centered on Georgia, U.S.-Russia nuclear
disarmament negotiations, missile defense and the associated status
of forces agreement (SOFA),Afghanistan and the Balkans, the EU
Eastern Partnership, and the Community of Democracies. END
SUMMARY.



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GEORGIA

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2. (C) FM Sikorski expressed concern that a "reset" of U.S.-Russia
relations could let Russia off the hook on Georgia. Sikorski noted
that the Sarkozy-brokered Russia-Georgia ceasefire, while
imperfect, showed that the EU had at least tried to solve the
Georgia situation--but that the U.S. needed to do more. A/S Gordon
said the U.S. firmly supported Georgia's territorial sovereignty
and was committed to its allies, and noted that Russia had indeed
paid a cost for its actions: increased isolation in the OSCE and on
the international stage. A/S Gordon said European partners, such
as the Germans and the British, were also increasingly fed up with
Russian behavior--especially the French, who had personally
negotiated the ceasefire. A/S Gordon affirmed that the U.S. wanted
a constructive relationship with Russia but said early signs were
not encouraging.



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NUKE NEGOTIATIONS, MISSILE DEFENSE, SOFA

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3. (C) Sikorski asked about U.S.-Russia nuclear disarmament
negotiations, saying that he hoped Russia would not take advantage
of the U.S. in the process. A/S Gordon replied that the Russians
really wanted an agreement, and that the U.S. would not have to
give away many incentives to clinch a good deal. Sikorski said he
was awaiting clear U.S. action on implementing the missile defense
agreement, stating that U.S. credibility would suffer if the
agreement were weakened or canceled. Poland was "delighted" that
the Russians had backed off of their threat to deploy missiles in
Kaliningrad, Sikorski said, and Poland continued to be willing to
grant the Russians intrusive inspection access to missile defense
facilities.




4. (C) Sikorski also noted that the U.S.-Poland missile defense
agreement provided for the deployment of Patriot batteries in two
phases: in phase one, a Patriot missile battery would begin
rotating through Poland in 2009; in phase two, a permanent battery
starting January 13, 2010, with Polish concurrence. Sikorski said
there were no legal impediments for the U.S. to start a Patriot
rotation in 2009; Poland would be flexible. Sikorski stressed that
a status of forces agreement (SOFA) was not required for the
rotation phase, and would only be required for the second,
permanent phase--any signals to the contrary from Polish
politicians were just "political jockeying." As for the terms of
an eventual SOFA, Sikorski stated his preference for one similar to
the U.S.-Spain SOFA; an agreement based on the U.S.-UK SOFA would
be outdated and would not take into account more recent EU legal
considerations. Sikorski also noted that the missile defense
agreement was supposed to result in economic benefits for Poland;
this is why Poland did not want to give American companies tax
exemptions--with an exemption the Polish government would see less
economic benefit.

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AFGHANISTAN / BALKANS

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5. (C) Sikorski stated that Poland had 2,000 troops in Afghanistan
now and would send an additional 200 to support the Afghani
elections. Sikorski said that he personally hoped that Polish
forces on the ground eventually would grow to 2,500 or even
3,000--making the Poles the largest contingent in southern
Afghanistan. A/S Gordon expressed appreciation for the Polish
contribution; the U.S. was worried, however, that some EU nations
were pushing too fast to draw down EUFOR ALTHEA in
Bosnia-Herzegovina, before the Peace Implementation Council had an
full chance to make its determination on the future of the Office
of the High Representative. Sikorski confirmed that Poland was one
of the EU countries wanting a quick drawdown, preferring to reduce
troop strength in the Balkans in order to deploy more to
Afghanistan. A/S Gordon noted that EUFOR ALTHEA had a critical
role and had relatively few troops to begin with.



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EU EASTERN PARTNERSHIP, BELARUS

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6. (C) Sikorski said that he hoped for greater U.S. engagement
with the EU Eastern Partnership (EaP),and proposed a "Friends of
the Eastern Partnership" group that the U.S. could take part in.
This group could support EaP countries by contributing to projects
in areas such as democracy promotion. A/S Gordon cautioned that
creating such a group might open a "Pandora's Box"--while it was
hard for Russia to oppose the EaP, an EU-centered initiative
focused on democracy and stability, adding the specter of American
involvement would complicate matters. A/S Gordon said that the
U.S. would continue to support an EaP that stayed under EU
leadership.




7. (C) Sikorski described Belarus as a good example of how EU
engagement, through the EaP, could bear fruit. According to
Sikorski, there had been five recent improvements in Belarus: 1)
President Lukashenko was "no longer killing opponents," 2)
Lukashenko had made a positive gesture to Europe by visiting the
Vatican in April, 3) various EU foreign ministers had visited
Belarus in the last few months, 4) Sikorski had been able to meet
opposition leaders freely during his own visit, and 5) EU-Belarus
trade had "boomed," with Belarus now exporting more to Europe than
to Russia--a clear sign that Belarus' interests were beginning to
lean more towards Europe. A/S Gordon added that Lukashenko's
non-recognition of South Ossetia and the recent milk customs
dispute with Russia were good signs, and inquired how the U.S.
could practically support the EaP. Sikorski said U.S. expertise on
human rights, the environment, border control, and migration would
be useful, and that his top two priorities for EaP nations were to
liberalize 1) trade and 2) freedom of movement / visa restrictions
with EU nations. Sikorski noted, however, that the Germans were
particularly averse reducing immigration restrictions for EaP
countries.



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COMMUNITY OF DEMOCRACIES / INVITATIONS

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8. (C) Sikorski described his desire to rejuvenate the Community
of Democracies (CD),which has its 10th anniversary in June 2010.
The CD was inaugurated in Warsaw in 2000 with the attendance of
then-Secretary Madeleine Albright, Sikorski noted, and a
high-profile 10th anniversary event would stress the importance of
democracy promotion--with Poland serving as a good example of a
young, successfully democratized country. Sikorsky invited
Secretary Clinton to consider attending a 10th anniversary event.
A/S Gordon replied that he would pass the invite to the Secretary,
but also noted a concern that the CD grouping included countries
lacking a practical commitment to democracy.




9. (C) A/S Gordon said that Vice President Biden would soon visit
Georgia and the United Kingdom. Sikorski asked when Biden could
visit Poland, suggesting September 1 (the 70th anniversary of World
War II) as a potential date. Sikorski noted that the Germans and
Russians had already agreed to come, but that the British had not
yet committed.




10. (U) Assistant Secretary Gordon cleared this cable.
SPECKHARD