KAZAKHSTAN: OPINION POLL INDICATES PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000587

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SOCI KDEM KPAO RS KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: OPINION POLL INDICATES PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV
RETAINS VERY STRONG SUPPORT


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a U.S. Government-funded survey commissioned
by the International Republican Institute (IRI) and conducted by
Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, 41 percent of respondents
had a favorable opinion of the United States, while 22 percent had a
negative opinion, and 33 percent remained neutral. Russia received
an 80 percent favorable rating. The respondents were most concerned
about socio-economic issues, and a majority disapproved of the
government's handling of the economic crisis. Nevertheless,
President Nazarbayev remains the most popular politician in
Kazakhstan, with a 95 percent approval rating, and more than half of
respondents said they would vote for the ruling Nur Otan party if
parliamentary elections were held tomorrow. Approximately half of
respondents were open to the idea of Nazarbayev handing over the
presidency to the next generation at the end of his term in 2012,
but at the same time, 57 percent of those surveyed say that he
should be allowed to serve an unlimited number of terms if he so
chooses. Opposition parties and leaders trailed far behind in
popularity. The majority of respondents believe democracy is the
right form of government for Kazakhstan, but far fewer are certain
that a multi-party coalition rule would benefit the country.
Television stations from Russia remain a major source of political
news for the majority of Kazakhstanis. END SUMMARY.

RUSSIA LEADS IN APPROVAL RATINGS


3. (SBU) As part of a U.S. Government-funded program, a national
public opinion survey of Kazakhstanis was commissioned by the
International Republican Institute (IRI) and conducted by the Baltic
Surveys/Gallup organization February 14-23. Gallup's partner, the
Kazakhstan Institute for Comparative Social Research, did the
fieldwork in interviewing 1519 Kazakhstanis throughout the country.
The last IRI/Gallup poll was conducted in August 2008 and was also
funded by the U.S. Government.


4. (SBU) In this February survey, 41 percent of respondents had a
favorable opinion of the United States, 22 percent a negative
opinion, and 33 percent were neutral. Those over 50 years old,
unemployed or retired, and residing in rural areas were more likely
to have a negative opinion of the United States than other
respondents. Russia received an 80 percent approval rating, with
only 5 percent of the respondents voicing a negative opinion. China
earned a 46 percent approval rating, with 17 percent expressing a
negative opinion. Those most critical of China were ethnic Kazakhs
(63 percent) with secondary education or lower, who work as manual
laborers (31 percent) or are unemployed (33 percent). The surveyors
described this group as those who see China as competition.

THE MAJORITY TRUST THE GOVERNMENT...


5. (SBU) The significant majority of the respondents believe that
the country is moving in the right direction, with 72 percent
registering their approval, a 5 percent uptick from the results of
the August 2008 survey, and 69 percent expressing confidence that
the government is run for the benefit of all people. There was a
significant increase in the approval ratings for local government --
61 percent expressed a positive view of local authorities, as
opposed to 42 percent in August 2008. Close to 60 percent also
believe that local governments should be granted more authority to
resolve local issues.

... BUT DISAPPROVE OF ITS HANDLING OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS


6. (SBU) Close to three-quarters of the respondents gave the
government low marks for its handling of the economic crisis. Over
half believe that the economic situation will get worse or stay the
same; nevertheless, close to the same number assess the current
economic situation as "good." The overwhelming majority of
respondents -- 90 percent -- remain concerned about high prices.
About 26 percent ascribe high prices to the government's poor
economic policy, another 26 percent blame greedy merchants, and 13
percent name corruption.


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SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES ARE THE TOP PRIORITY


7. (SBU) Socio-economic issues were of primary concern for the
majority of the respondents. Asked to name the issue of greatest
concern, 35 percent named inflation and price increases, 21 percent
unemployment, 13 percent low standards of living, and 11 percent low
incomes. Less than one percent said that implementing further
democratic reform is their top priority. In rating the government's
performance on socio-economic issues, 55 percent thought that the
government was not doing enough on poverty reduction, and close to
half the respondents criticized the government's policy on poverty
reduction, employment, housing, and corruption. The areas where the
government received top marks were national security (52 percent),
general development (46 percent),and foreign policy (47 percent).
On democratic development, 29 percent judged the performance to be
good, 14 percent bad, and 32 percent neither good nor bad, while 25
percent gave no answer or said that they did not know.


8. (SBU) Although the majority of respondents did not list
corruption as one of their top concerns, the problem is still viewed
as a serious. Just one-third of the respondents (31 percent)
believe that the government's anti-corruption efforts are working,
and over half (52 percent) believe that the current political
leadership is capable of significantly reducing the level of
corruption during the next few years. Customs is seen as the most
corrupt government agency (35 percent),followed by universities (33
percent),the courts (25 percent),banks (15 percent),and the army
(15 percent).

OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV...


9. (SBU) The survey shows that President Nazarbayev enjoys the
overwhelming trust of Kazkahstanis. Asked to rate individual
political leaders, 95 percent voiced their approval of the
President, up from 92 percent in 2008. His daughter Dariga follows
as the second highest rated politician at 64 percent, with the akim
(mayor) of Astana, Imangali Tasmagambetov, following at 54 percent.
In comparison, top opposition leaders, including Communist Party
head Serikbolsyn Abdildin and Azat party head Bulat Abilov, earned
approval rating in the 20 to 40 percent range. Nazarbayev's
son-in-law, Timur Kulibayev, earned just a 22 percent favorable
rating. Among the respondents, 86 percent said they approve of the
President's job performance, and 78 percent believe that Nazarbayev
is the one political leader best able to handle the country's
problems, a significant increase from the 48 percent who said so in
August 2008. Tasmagambetov trailed immediately behind Nazarbayev,
with 6 percent of respondents saying that he is best able to handle
Kazakhstan's problems. Over 70 percent of the respondents said they
would vote for Nazarbayev if presidential elections were held today,
while 7 percent named Astana mayor Tasmagambetov as their
presidential choice. Only 1 percent named Zhamarkhan Tuyakbai, the
united opposition's candidate during the last presidential elections
in 2005. About half of the respondents agreed with the statement
that President Nazarbayev should hand over the power to the next
generation at the end of his term in 2012, while -- somewhat
incongruently -- 57 percent said he should stay in power as long as
he wishes.

... AND FOR THE RULING NUR OTAN PARTY


10. (SBU) Despite criticism of Kazakhstani elections by local and
international observers, 64 percent of respondents believe that the
country's elections are conducted in a fair and honest way. Over 60
percent said they would vote for the ruling Nur Otan party if
parliamentary elections were held next week. The leading opposition
parties garnered far less support: just 4 percent said they would
vote for Alikhan Baymenov's Ak Zhol party, 3 percent for Serikbolsyn
Abdildin's Communist Party, and under 1 percent for the National
Social Democratic Party and the Azat party. Of particular note, 43
percent said that the ruling Nur Otan party is fulfilling its 2007
election promises -- an increase from 22 percent in the August 2008
survey, and a majority believe that the Nur Otan can contribute to
making the economy stronger, eradicating corruption, and
strengthening human rights. When asked similar questions about the

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opposition parties, over half the respondents said they do not know
enough about the parties to make judgments. Nur Otan's popularity
is undoubtedly aided by Nazarbayev's own popularity -- 89 percent of
respondents say they trust Nazarbayev as the party's leader.

SUPPORT FOR THE "DEMOCRATIC" IDEA


11. (SBU) Among the respondents, 41 percent believe that democracy
is the right form of government, and another 41 percent believe
democracy "may be" the right path. Just over half agreed that only
under democratic rule will the government be forced to address
economic problems, unemployment, and corruption, and 62 percent
believe that Kazakhstan should have an active opposition. Asked
whether they support a rule by one party or a coalition of several
parties, 35 percent were in favor of a coalition, while 44 percent
would prefer rule by one party. In the surveyors' opinion, the high
preference for a one-party rule could be explained by the
Kazakhstanis' general lack of experience with a multi-party system,
rather than a principled opposition to it. Asked about the status
of freedom of speech in Kazakhstan, 56 percent of the respondents
said they believe that at least some Kazakhstanis are afraid to
express their political views.

RUSSIA IS IMPORTANT NEWS SOURCE


12. (SBU) The survey confirmed yet again that Russia is an
important news sources for Kazakhstanis. Among the respondents, 85
percent said they rely on Kazakhstani television stations for
political news, while 61 percent also watch news programs on
television stations from Russia. Just 6 percent said they obtain
political news from other foreign TV stations. Over one-fifth of
the respondents say they get news from the Internet, which,
according to the surveyors, is the highest percentage in the region.


HOAGLAND