KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, MARCH 21-27

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000558 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/PPD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EFIN MARR SOCI KPAO KMDR AF RS KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, MARCH 21-27 ¶1. SUMMARY: During the week of March 21-27, the Kazakhstani media focused on economic issues, ranging from the U.S. government's stimulus plans to the effect the economy is having on pushing young people out of villages and into the cities. A lengthy analysis was devoted to what Presidents Obama and Medvedev will discuss at the G-20 Summit and how Russia and the United States are trying to work out new rules of the game in Central Asia. END SUMMARY. DOUBTS ABOUT U.S. ANTI-CRISIS MEASURES ¶2. The pro-government daily "Liter" said the U.S. administration's decision to pass a large stimulus package without waiting for the results of the G-20 summit will benefit the United States but not the rest of the world. Russian politicians reportedly welcomed the news of the stimulus, saying that the end of the American economy was near. "Liter" added that economists were "very pessimistic," noting that "big problems were awaiting the Russian economy as well," and that many countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan, depend on the dollar in exporting hydrocarbons and importing foreign-made equipment--and also repay foreign loans in U.S. currency. According to Olzhas Khudaybergenov, head of the Macroeconomic Projects Group, an increase in the money supply is neither good nor bad in and of itself, but rather everything depends on how the stimulus will be used. Khudaybergenov said the United States "would avoid problems if it directs its money towards production and development projects," but that it was "doing quite the opposite--spending the money covering bank deficits and paying off bad debts, and saving a financial sector that does not produce anything." He predicted that these circumstances would lead to serious inflation in the U.S. economy. RURAL YOUTH SCORNED IN THE CITIES ¶3. An article in the "Central Asia Monitor," a pro-government weekly, says that young people from villages find themselves in a humiliating position because of the scorn they receive from the government and from urban youth. During the ongoing era of urbanization, young people from villages have started moving to cities in large numbers for better jobs. The waves of migrants from villages have shocked native Almaty residents for some time, though an adjustment stage between the two cultures has already occurred. Yet "disdain toward young men and women from the villages hasn't disappeared," according to the "Monitor." "Many of these Kazakhstanis find themselves in the same humiliating position as migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, doing dirty and hard work at construction sites and markets. In the meantime, villages are dying, along with employment prospects for young people there and belief in government." The urban jobs that draw youth have led to social stratification, according to the "Monitor," and, "worse, young people couldn't go back to their villages even if they wanted to: almost everything in advanced villages is in private hands, and young people could count only on low-paying jobs. Hopes for the benefits of capitalism and democracy are being replaced by grief for the now distant era of socialism. This generation may not remember those times, but they do know that back then, the government took care of its young people." NEW RULES OF THE GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA? ¶4. "Liter" also reported that when President Obama meets President Medvedev in London in April 1 on the eve of the G-20 Summit, the main topics of discussion, according to Medvedev, will be non-proliferation, the current economic crisis, and international terrorism. The presidents will also discuss Central Asia, a region which for a long time has given rise to discord among the big geopolitical players, particularly the struggle over energy resources and oil transportation routes. "The decline in oil prices from $140 to $40 per barrel, however, has significantly decreased the energy ambitions of the players. Now, security issues have taken center stage as the Pentagon plans to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan up to 60,000," "Liter" reported. Instability in Pakistan and hazy prospects for its "southern corridor" for supplies have forced the Americans to look for alternative routes of supply for its military. Russian politicians always expressed support for the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan, "Liter" said, because after the Taliban there fell in 2001, financial support for ASTANA 00000558 002 OF 002 separatists dried up, stabilizing the northern Caucasus and leaving only small terrorist groups for Russia to confront. Central Asia also benefited from the U.S. war on the Taliban, "Liter" reported, "as Takhir Yuldashev, the leader of the Islamic Movement of Turkestan, a most odious terrorist organization, left for Pakistan. The longer he stays there, the rarer Central Asian shootings and bombings are." ¶5. "Liter" wrote that there were no disagreements between Russia and the United States in general on the anti-terrorism issue--but Russia does fear that the war on terrorism will lead to expansion of the American military presence in Central Asia on a permanent basis. In February, President Medvedev said, "The base at Manas existed for eight years. It doesn't seem like anyone agreed on that." Still, Russia is willing to support NATO forces in Afghanistan by providing transit for NATO's non-lethal goods through its territory, even though the issue of transportation of lethal goods remains open. "It looks like Russia is trying to work out new 'rules of the game' in Central Asia that will not infringe on its own interests and will not lead to a strengthening of NATO's role in the region," "Liter" wrote. "The Americans were given 180 days to leave Kyrgyzstan, which means that the White House has some time for negotiations--and Russia is ready for such negotiations. As President Medvedev noted today, 'There is every opportunity for opening a new page' in relations between Russia and the United States." HOAGLAND