KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, MARCH 21-27

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000558

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/PPD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EFIN MARR SOCI KPAO KMDR AF RS KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, MARCH 21-27


1. SUMMARY: During the week of March 21-27, the Kazakhstani media
focused on economic issues, ranging from the U.S. government's
stimulus plans to the effect the economy is having on pushing young
people out of villages and into the cities. A lengthy analysis was
devoted to what Presidents Obama and Medvedev will discuss at the
G-20 Summit and how Russia and the United States are trying to work
out new rules of the game in Central Asia. END SUMMARY.

DOUBTS ABOUT U.S. ANTI-CRISIS MEASURES


2. The pro-government daily "Liter" said the U.S. administration's
decision to pass a large stimulus package without waiting for the
results of the G-20 summit will benefit the United States but not
the rest of the world. Russian politicians reportedly welcomed the
news of the stimulus, saying that the end of the American economy
was near. "Liter" added that economists were "very pessimistic,"
noting that "big problems were awaiting the Russian economy as
well," and that many countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan,
depend on the dollar in exporting hydrocarbons and importing
foreign-made equipment--and also repay foreign loans in U.S.
currency. According to Olzhas Khudaybergenov, head of the
Macroeconomic Projects Group, an increase in the money supply is
neither good nor bad in and of itself, but rather everything depends
on how the stimulus will be used. Khudaybergenov said the United
States "would avoid problems if it directs its money towards
production and development projects," but that it was "doing quite
the opposite--spending the money covering bank deficits and paying
off bad debts, and saving a financial sector that does not produce
anything." He predicted that these circumstances would lead to
serious inflation in the U.S. economy.

RURAL YOUTH SCORNED IN THE CITIES


3. An article in the "Central Asia Monitor," a pro-government
weekly, says that young people from villages find themselves in a
humiliating position because of the scorn they receive from the
government and from urban youth. During the ongoing era of
urbanization, young people from villages have started moving to
cities in large numbers for better jobs. The waves of migrants from
villages have shocked native Almaty residents for some time, though
an adjustment stage between the two cultures has already occurred.
Yet "disdain toward young men and women from the villages hasn't
disappeared," according to the "Monitor." "Many of these
Kazakhstanis find themselves in the same humiliating position as
migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, doing dirty and hard
work at construction sites and markets. In the meantime, villages
are dying, along with employment prospects for young people there
and belief in government." The urban jobs that draw youth have led
to social stratification, according to the "Monitor," and, "worse,
young people couldn't go back to their villages even if they wanted
to: almost everything in advanced villages is in private hands, and
young people could count only on low-paying jobs. Hopes for the
benefits of capitalism and democracy are being replaced by grief for
the now distant era of socialism. This generation may not remember
those times, but they do know that back then, the government took
care of its young people."

NEW RULES OF THE GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA?


4. "Liter" also reported that when President Obama meets President
Medvedev in London in April 1 on the eve of the G-20 Summit, the
main topics of discussion, according to Medvedev, will be
non-proliferation, the current economic crisis, and international
terrorism. The presidents will also discuss Central Asia, a region
which for a long time has given rise to discord among the big
geopolitical players, particularly the struggle over energy
resources and oil transportation routes. "The decline in oil prices
from $140 to $40 per barrel, however, has significantly decreased
the energy ambitions of the players. Now, security issues have
taken center stage as the Pentagon plans to increase the number of
troops in Afghanistan up to 60,000," "Liter" reported. Instability
in Pakistan and hazy prospects for its "southern corridor" for
supplies have forced the Americans to look for alternative routes of
supply for its military. Russian politicians always expressed
support for the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan, "Liter" said, because
after the Taliban there fell in 2001, financial support for

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separatists dried up, stabilizing the northern Caucasus and leaving
only small terrorist groups for Russia to confront. Central Asia
also benefited from the U.S. war on the Taliban, "Liter" reported,
"as Takhir Yuldashev, the leader of the Islamic Movement of
Turkestan, a most odious terrorist organization, left for Pakistan.
The longer he stays there, the rarer Central Asian shootings and
bombings are."


5. "Liter" wrote that there were no disagreements between Russia
and the United States in general on the anti-terrorism issue--but
Russia does fear that the war on terrorism will lead to expansion of
the American military presence in Central Asia on a permanent basis.
In February, President Medvedev said, "The base at Manas existed
for eight years. It doesn't seem like anyone agreed on that."
Still, Russia is willing to support NATO forces in Afghanistan by
providing transit for NATO's non-lethal goods through its territory,
even though the issue of transportation of lethal goods remains
open. "It looks like Russia is trying to work out new 'rules of the
game' in Central Asia that will not infringe on its own interests
and will not lead to a strengthening of NATO's role in the region,"
"Liter" wrote. "The Americans were given 180 days to leave
Kyrgyzstan, which means that the White House has some time for
negotiations--and Russia is ready for such negotiations. As
President Medvedev noted today, 'There is every opportunity for
opening a new page' in relations between Russia and the United
States."

HOAGLAND