KAZAKHSTAN: NAZARBAYEV ON AFGHANISTAN, IRAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 000557 SIPDIS STATE FOR P, S/SRAP, SCA/CEN, SCA/A, EUR/RUS, NEA/IR E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2024 TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM START RS IR AF KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: NAZARBAYEV ON AFGHANISTAN, IRAN, RUSSIA, RELATIONS WITH UNITED STATES REF: A. SECSTATE 29482 ¶B. SECSTATE 30048 Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland: 1.4 (B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Nazarbayev said on March 30: he wants to be a strong, non-ideological partner with the United States to help on Afghanistan; he continues to advise Tehran to give up their nuclear ambitions, and will do so once again on April 6 when President Ahmadinejad visits Astana; he has advised Russian President Medvedev to trust President Obama, and asked that the United States try better to understand Russia's peculiar psychology; he welcomes Washington and Moscow's commitment to negotiate a new START agreement; and he is eager for a stronger, more visible relationship with the United States and would welcome in the near-term a visit by Secretary Clinton and, in the longer term, would be delighted to host President Obama. Although Washington has many white-hot irons in the fire, we judge it would be useful for U.S. national interests to pay attention to President Nazarbayev's evident and, we believe, sincere opening to the Obama Administration in its early days. It might well be possible that we have the opportunity to build a strong partner on Afghanistan, Iran, and Russia. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with President Nursultan Nazarbayev for 55 minutes in his private dining room adjacent to his office on March 30. Presidential Foreign Policy Adviser Khairat Sarybay took notes for the President. AFGHANISTAN: "LET US BE YOUR NON-IDEOLOGICAL PARTNER" ¶3. (C) The Ambassador passed to President Nazarbayev a summary of U.S. objectives in Afghanistan (reftel A) and said President Obama and his Administration would welcome Nazarbayev's advice about how to proceed in Afghanistan. The President initially responded, "Everyone has given you advice, but are you listening?" The Ambassador assured him, "Yes, President Obama and his team are listening closely to our international partners, and we value your expertise. You know that is true from your November telephone conversation with President Obama." Nazarbayev relaxed and said, "Yes, that was an important moment in U.S.-Kazakhstan relations," and he referred to it repeatedly during the rest of the meeting. ¶4. (C) About Afghanistan, Nazarbayev said, "The urgent question is how will the elections go? Who will be the next president of Afghanistan? The problem is that there is now no real authority in Afghanistan. We (Kazakhstan) helped with humanitarian reconstruction assistance, but the schools we built are already abandoned and windowless. The students are forbidden to attend. No one now can guarantee the safety of our aid workers and the facilities they built. Why should we continue this assistance in the face of such chaos that negates our best intentions? From the beginning, your (former Secretary of Defense Donald) Rumsfeld thought that you could provide minimal military assistance, and Afghanistan would carry on, would muddle through. But the history of Afghanistan is a long Asian story. Tamerlaine tried. The Moghuls tried. The British tried. The Soviets tried. Every empire has failed in Afghanistan. But the worst-case scenario now would be for the United States and NATO to give up and leave, because the Taliban would return triumphantly to power, civil war would reignite, and ASTANA 00000557 002 OF 004 Afghanistan would become a 'paradise for terrorists.' You cannot leave! You must win! But you must do it intelligently." ¶5. (C) Nazarbayev said, "Afghans themselves must find the power to unite behind a real and legitimate indigenous leader. You cannot again impose a 'shopkeeper from Chicago.' I fully understand that there was a moment for Karzai 'with your cannons behind him,' and I supported you. But his time has passed. He has failed to unite his nation. I have no candidate for president of Afghanistan, but I can tell you that the next president must be an Afghan from Afghanistan who has the ability to unite at least 50% of the Afghan people. If you or Moscow impose another puppet, no matter how charming he might be to either of you, he will fail. The next president of Afghanistan absolutely must be the choice of the Afghan people, without any outside manipulation or interference. I want the next Afghan elections to be as free as possible." (NOTE: Nazarbayev said this without any hint of irony. END NOTE.) ¶6. (C) "Further," Nazarbayev said, "you must carefully involve Russia, Pakistan, India, and even Iran. If they are not on board, the destructive chaos will only continue. You are 'the concert master.' You must create the symphony. The future of Afghanistan needs fullest international consensus. Even better if the United Nations can guarantee it. You cannot allow the Taliban to gain a foothold in the next Afghan government. If they get one Talib in, they will take over again, and we will be pre-2001. The Taliban are irreconcilable. Do not trust extremists to be reasonable!" ¶7. (C) Nazarbayev said, "Listen to me closely. We can play a most helpful role for you and for the interests of regional security and stability. We can be a base for logistical support for Afghanistan (NFI). We can be the base for the broadest training of Afghans, both military and civilian. We are ready to do this and will do so to the maximum. This will save you a lot of money. We can be the honest broker without any ideological agenda. We have repeatedly said we are willing to do this, but it seems to me no one is listening to us. Please tell your President that we are willing to play the fullest and most responsible role. I personally will guarantee that we are non-ideological in the greater interests of regional stability." IRAN: "I AM WILLING TO HELP" ¶8. (C) Nazarbayev said that Iranian President Ahmadinejad will be in Astana on April 6 and added, "I am most willing to be helpful to you. I will remind Ahmadinejad that I am willing to play the role of statesman. Listen to me: Iran is dangerous! We all know this. No one can sleep safely with Iran's desire for missiles and nuclear weapons. I always tell Russia that Iran is 'threat number-one.' Early in 2008, I spent three hours with Ahmadinejad in Tehran, and then I went to meet with the 'Supreme Mullah.' I explained to them Kazakhstan's non-proliferation history. I told them, 'Give up your nuclear ambitions and you will gain international respect, as we did.' I told them this would greatly benefit their economy. I told them to tell their people that they had succeeded internationally and gained fullest international respect, and then all doors would be open to them. But they responded that no matter what they might do, the United States would always find a reason to demonize them as part of the 'Axis of Evil' and would try to destroy them. You must understand you have made them paranoid. And paranoid states are extremely dangerous because they are irrational. In 2008, I asked Germany and France, 'What can I do to help?' But I never got any answer. They ignored my offer. I am still willing to help, but you need to make me a partner." RUSSIA: "HELP THEM BY EMBRACING THEM" ASTANA 00000557 003 OF 004 ¶9. (C) The Ambassador passed to Nazarbayev the reftel B statement on the U.S.-Russia START negotiations. Nazarbayev took time to read it and commented, "This is excellent. We fully support it. Please continue to keep us informed. If we can be helpful in any way, we will do so." ¶10. (C) Nazarbayev said, "I very, very much hope that your new Administration will find ways to bring back good relations with Russia. Just a few days ago, I reminded President Medvedev by telephone of my November conversation with President Obama. I told him to trust the new American President. I told him I fully believe 'the unpleasant period' is over. Medvedev responded that he looks forward to serious talks with Obama in London (during the G-20 Summit)." ¶11. (C) Nazarbayev added, "Your relations with Russia can influence the entire world. Look, we all know that Russia is not as developed as the United States and Europe. We know Russia has outdated equipment and infrastructure. But you must understand Russia's psychology. Russia will not tolerate being pushed aside. Because they are insecure, they are difficult and can even be dangerous. Russia is brittle and demanding, but you must look past that. Even in its weakest moments, Russia has always come back. After the Soviet Revolution, Russia industrialized. After the Great Patriotic War (World War II),Russia rebuilt faster than anyone could have imagined. It is very dangerous to insult Russia. Please understand this. When they are at their weakest, they can do the greatest mischief. This is simply history. As a former member of the Politburo of the Soviet Union, I ask you to trust my judgment. You can only help them move to a better future by embracing them. My friend (former Vice President Richard) Cheney used to pound the table and tell me forcefully that Russia was finished as a great power. He never listened to me, but I always asked him to consider history. He never did." ¶12. (C) Nazarbayev said, "Based on my excellent November conversation with your President Obama, I truly believe he understands what's at stake. Please tell him the U.S. missile defense plan for Central Europe is a horrible mistake. If the United States is truly concerned about the potential threat from Iran, as we all must be, please tell your President that the best recourse is to find a way to place missile defenses in Russia, not in Central Europe, where they appear to be against Russia. I remind you, Russia is at heart a paranoid nation, and paranoid nations are dangerous. If necessary, even work with Russia to put joint missile defenses in Turkey. Please tell President Obama to listen to his best instincts and give reasonable respect to Russia, even if it seems irrational to you. If there is any way I can help, I gladly will do so." ¶13. (C) Nazarbayed added, "I want to make something very clear. We do indeed have a special relationship with Russia, but it is solely, in my view, economic and cultural. Kazakhstan is totally independent politically. We are your partner, too, if you allow us to be your partner. But you need to make more of an effort." "WAIT, ONE MORE MESSAGE FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA" ¶14. (C) The meeting then devolved into pleasantries, and the Ambassador started to stand up as the President pushed back his chair. Then President Nazarbayev said, "Wait, sit down. I have one more message for President Obama. We want to have better, warmer relations with your great country. I believe we deserve trust in many fields. I want to put on the table new economic initiatives. I deeply appreciate your historic investments in our oil and gas sectors, especially at the beginning when you took enormous risks when we were weak. I would like to ask that you consider a new partnership not ASTANA 00000557 004 OF 004 just for oil and gas, but also for industrial innovation and technological training. Further, I would ask from my respected interlocutor President Obama fullest political support by regular high-level visits, including Congressional delegations. I very much need this on a regular basis because Moscow is always breathing down my neck. I will always be fully respectful to Moscow, but I very much want you to be a bigger and more equal player, too. I would be delighted to host President Obama in Astana, but I fully understand he has other priorities. However, if Secretary of State Clinton could visit relatively soon, that would make a most powerful regional statement that would not, I assure you, be ignored in other capitals -- I mean Moscow and Beijing. I want you to understand that I consider the United States a trustworthy partner." THE REST OF CENTRAL ASIA - PROBLEMATIC ¶15. (C) Nazarbayev then trailed off into thumbnail sketches of the other Central Asian states. He said that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are desperately poor, weak, and extremely unstable, and worry him greatly, but he does not know what he can do. He said he worries about their potential to destabilize the region, especially when the "great powers" seem predisposed to find new stability for the region, including in Afghanistan, but seem to ignore the "weak brothers of lower Central Asia." Nazarbayev judged that Uzbekistan is "not doing well" because President Karimov is "odd" and overly susceptible to Russian influence. About Turkmenistan, he simply said two words, "permanent neutrality," and rolled his eyes. "I HAVE LEARNED TO BE CALM" ¶16. (C) In concluding, President Nazarbayev said, "I have been around for a long time, and I know that some say it has been much too long. But in my long experience through many difficult times, I have learned, after all these years, to be calm. I really do want stronger, more visible relations with the United States. My door is fully open to you -- please tell President Obama. But if you judge you are not ready, I can wait. I will not ever harm you. I sincerely want to help you. Anything I do will be in Kazakhstan's best interests, but I want to help you, if you will let me." ¶17. (C) The Ambassador thanked President Nazarbayev for his candor and trust. He told the President that he would pass in detail his views to President Obama and his Administration. Nazarbayev gently chided the Ambassador, "It took you a long time to have a first private meeting with me." When the Ambassador replied he is always ready, day or night, the President joked, "Don't you have anything better to do at night?" ¶18. (C) COMMENT: What was scheduled to have been a perfunctory meeting on a difficult bilateral issue (septel, NOTAL) became a fascinating tour d'horizon of the region and the potential for U.S.-Kazakhstan relations. Although Washington has many white-hot irons in the fire, we judge it would be useful for U.S. national interests to pay attention to President Nazarbayev's evident and, we believe, sincere opening to the Obama Administration in its early days. It might well be possible that we have the opportunity to build a strong partner on Afghanistan, Iran, and Russia. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND