KAZAKHSTAN: SMOOTH OPERATOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000479

DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC

DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
CIA WASHDC
DIA WASHDC
NSC WASHDC
SECDEF WASHDC
JOINT STAFF WASHDC
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB, ISN, DRL
AGRICULTURE DEPARTMENT FOR FAS
ANKARA FOR AGRICULTURE COUNSELOR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAGR SOCI KNNP UZ KG KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: SMOOTH OPERATOR

REF: (A) ASTANA 0431
(B) ASTANA 0412
(C) ASTANA 0147


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: On March 13, the Ambassador had lunch with
Nurbakh Rustemov, the Chairman of the International Affairs,
Defense, and Security Committee of the Mazhilis (the lower house of
the parliament),and Romin Madinov, the Chairman of the Mazhilis's
Agrarian Committee. Madinov made a case for greater U.S. investment
in Kazakhstan's agricultural sector. Rustemov said that the
Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Agreement will be considered at a
plenary session of the Mazhilis on March 18. He expects it to pass
with no changes and to move quickly through the Senate. Both
parliamentarians expressed hope that a "new chapter" of
U.S.-Kazakhstani relations will begin under President Obama and said
that a POTUS visit to Kazakhstan would be most welcome. We strongly
suspect the real reason for the lunch, although it remained
unspoken, was for the Ambassador to see the "friendly professional"
side of Madinov who has become rather notorious as the plaintiff
against the opposition newspaper, Taszhargan" [ref A]. END SUMMARY.


CHINESE INVESTMENT WORRISOME?


3. (SBU) Nurbakh Rustemov, the Chairman of the International
Affairs, Defense, and Security Committee of the Mazhilis (the lower
house of the parliament) invited the Ambassador to lunch on March

13. Rustemov's colleague, Romin Madinov, the Chairman of the
Mazhilis's Agrarian Committee and chairman of the Agrarian Party now
folded into the ruling Nur Otan party, also attended the lunch.
Madinov pitched extensively for greater U.S. investment in
Kazakhstan's agricultural sector. He recommended that the United
States and Kazakhstan diversify their bilateral economic
relationship and focus more attention on agriculture. He claimed
that the "the Arabs and the Chinese" have already expressed interest
in Kazakhstan's agricultural sector, but he would prefer "to deal
with American companies." (NOTE: See ref C for discussion of Arab
investments in Kazakhstani agriculture. END NOTE.) "You don't have
to worry about the Americans like you do the Chinese -- Americans
will not want to bring their own workers, they will not put down
roots and stay," maintained Madinov, voicing the unease with which
some Kazakhstanis view their large neighbor to the East.

CTR AGREEMENT ON TRACK FOR PASSAGE


4. (SBU) Rustemov told the Ambassador that the Cooperative Threat
Reduction (CTR) agreement will be considered at a plenary session of
the Mazhilis on March 18. He expects it to pass quickly and go
immediately to the Senate. The Senate has 30 days to review the
legislation, but Rustemov believes the agreement will be approved by
the Senate much quicker, since the text has already been
"pre-negotiated" with the Senate's relevant committee. The
Ambassador thanked Rustemov, noting that Senate Chairman Tokayev
promised him that he would push the CTR agreement through the Senate
quickly (ref B).

"NOTHING PERSONAL IN POLITICS"


5. (SBU) Rustemov said that President Obama inspires "big hopes"
and that a POTUS visit to Kazakhstan would be most welcome. Madinov
expressed hope that President Obama's election would open a "new
chapter" in U.S.-Kazakhstani relations. He alleged that during his
2002 trip to the United States, "someone high up in the State
Department" chastised Kazakhstan for lagging on democratic reform
and pointed to Uzbekistan as the "democratic example" to follow.
Madinov said he hopes the new Administration will have a new, "more
nuanced" approach to Kazakhstan. "There should be nothing personal

ASTANA 00000479 002 OF 002


in politics," he said. Rustemov emphatically agreed, telling the
Ambassador that "we are ready to help" in providing Washington with
a more complete picture of Kazakhstan.

KYRGYZ DECISION ON MANAS "HARD TO UNDERSTAND"


6. (SBU) Rustemov told the Ambassador that Kyrgyzstan's recent
decision to close the Manas base is "hard to understand." The
Ambassador suggested that some in the Kyrgyz leadership might not be
comfortable with this decision. Madinov joked that "now (the
Kyrgyz) are trying to figure out how to keep Russia's money, allow
you to keep your base, and increase your payments to them," all at
the same time.

REGIONAL COOPERATION -- "IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME"


7. (SBU) Rustemov said President Nazarbayev seeks to strengthen
cooperation among all the Central Asian states and also to develop
closer links among the Turkic states. He admitted that Uzbekistan's
President Karimov, whom he referred to as a "crazy person,"
continues to be a stumbling block for regional cooperation, however,
"Karimov won't be around forever." In the meantime, Kazakhstan will
continue to lay the necessary groundwork for regional cooperation.
"If you build it, they will come," he said.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Although it is not unusual for Kazakhstani
officials to offer or to accept invitations for working lunches and
dinners with foreign diplomats, we were a little surprised by this
invitation, since there seemed to be no real agenda. In fact, the
lunch was unusually chummy, with more than one vodka toast - a
practice most Kazakhstani officials avoid. Further, there were a
number of jokes, including one at the expense of the Putin-Medvedev
tandem. At one point, Madinov invited the Ambassador to join him
for a weekend at a resort. It was only after the lunch that we
realized Madinov is the plaintiff in the case against opposition
newspaper "Taszhargan," which resulted in the Almaty City Court
fining the newspaper $200,000, which is sure to put it out of
business. We suspect the whole purpose of the lunch was to show the
Ambassador Madinov as a "friendly professional" who only rarely
chomps down whole newspapers. END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND