KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, FEBRUARY 21-27

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000371

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/PPD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EFIN MARR SOCI KPAO KMDR KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, FEBRUARY 21-27


1. SUMMARY: During the week of February 21-27, the Kazakhstani
media continued to speculate about the regional ramifications of
Kyrgyzstan's decision to close the Manas airbase, as well as about
the future of both the U.S. dollar and the Kazakhstani tenge amidst
the continuing global economic crisis. Analytical commentators
focused on U.S.-Russia relations and their effect on Kazakhstan,
particularly in light of the Kazakhstan's decision to join the CSTO
joint rapid reaction force. END SUMMARY.

RUMINATIONS ON A POST-MANAS WORLD


2. Speculation continued in the local press about a post-Manas
world after the Kyrgyz parliament's February 19 vote to close the
base. Independent "Delovaya Nedelya" was harshly critical of the
Kyrgyz decision, claiming "it was obvious that he (Bakiyev) sold the
base" in return for $2 billion from Russia. The paper opined that
"Americans now have nowhere to go. Tajikistan might be open to them
but Dushanbe is susceptible to Russian influence, and a base close
to the Afghan border could easily be penetrated by Taliban spies.
The U.S. can't count on Uzbek President Karimov's loyalty as he
already closed a base, Turkmenistan cannot host a base on its
territory due to its policy of neutrality, and Astana will not risk
its relations with Russia through any step viewed as a possible
betrayal." The paper then asserted that Azerbaijan is the most
probable candidate to host a future U.S. base, but outlined a
dramatic scenario in which this will ignite a new arms race,
increase tensions, lead to renewed war between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, and force Kazakhstani soldiers to fight against their
Azerbaijani "brothers" as a result of the CSTO agreement recently
signed in Moscow. "Delovaya Nedelya" placed blame for this
"pessimistic" post-Manas scenario explicitly on the shoulders of
Kyrgyz parliamentarians


3. In less dramatic articles, a second "Delovaya Nedelya" piece and
pro-government "Komsomolskaya Pravda" speculated that Tajikistan,
motivated by its painful economic situation, was a likely candidate
to offer the United States an alternative to Manas, and cited
pro-NATO Georgia as another possibility. This "Delovaya Nedelya"
article argued that Tajikistan has a unique opportunity to seek
investments from the United States in exchange for assisting with
the operation in Afghanistan, but noted that pressure from Russia
was to be expected.

"ARMAGEDDON" IS COMING


4. Talk of a new "world currency" suggested by President Nazarbayev
in January has faded somewhat, with local media reporting instead on
the challenges facing the U.S. dollar. The Kazakhstani government
also continued to refute rumors that the Kazakhstani tenge will be
devalued a second time. Pro-government "Liter" cited increased
trade conducted in local currencies around the world as "a sign of
the forthcoming Armageddon of the American dollar" and asserted that
the "myth" that U.S. bonds are the most reliable is now being laid
bare. The article also argued that the fall of the dollar would be
a blow to developing economies, and opined that "the American
government continues issuing unsecured dollars to increase
liquidity, in order to come out of the crisis at the expense of
others."

AMERICA ISOLATING RUSSIA?


5. Pro-government Argumenty I Fakti cited negative U.S. actions as
an explanation for why President Nazarbayev's decision to join the
CSTO rapid reaction force on February 4 was "timely and pragmatic."
The article charged that the United States has sought, somewhat
successfully, to isolate Russia via a "cordon sanitaire" from the
Baltics to Georgia and to build a negative view of Russia in
Kazakhstan via "American 'public centers.'" The Director of the
Kazakh Institute of Strategic Studies, Bulat Sultanov, stated that
Kazakhstan, surrounded by economically backward countries and
possessing a small army, stood to gain from the support offered by
the regional rapid reaction force.

TO NOMINATE, OR NOT TO NOMINATE?


6. The opposition-oriented news website www.zonakz.net reported
that a Chechen organization called "Children of Kazakhstan" is
collecting signatures to nominate President Nazarbayev for the Nobel

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Peace Prize "for his humanity toward the peoples deported during
Stalin's regime." However, the following day, the opposition
"Taszhargan" newspaper reported that a cultural center is not,
according to Nobel rules, eligible to nominate candidates. The jury
is therefore still out on the nomination.

HOAGLAND