KAZAKHSTAN: OPPOSITION PROTEST FIZZLES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000369 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI KDEM KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: OPPOSITION PROTEST FIZZLES ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: The opposition Azat party organized an anti-government protest rally on Saturday, February 21 in Almaty, but it did not draw a large crowd, despite Azat's active efforts to publicize the event. The protest's participants called for the resignation of Prime Minister Karim Masimov and his government for their "mismanagement of the economic crisis." Azat's plan to hold similar rallies nation-wide did not materialize because the party was denied permits for public gatherings in every one of the capitals of Kazakhstan's twelve oblasts (regions). The party reapplied to hold the rallies on Saturday, February 28, but 10 of the new requests have been denied, with two still pending permits. Azat's leadership plans to appeal the denials in court. END SUMMARY. AZAT'S ALMATY RALLY DRAWS FEW PARTICIPANTS ¶3. (SBU) On February 21, the opposition Azat party held a protest rally in Almaty to demand the resignation of the government over its handling of the economic crisis. The turn-out was relatively low -- an estimated 300 to 500 people attended, in a city of perhaps 1.5 million -- despite the fact that Azat publicized the protest widely in high-circulation opposition newspapers, including "Svoboda Slova" and "Taszhargan." The attendees were primarily party activists, pensioners from the "Pokolenie" pensioners' movement, and "dolshiki," i.e., individuals who paid money upfront for apartments which have not been completed. There was also a small group of young people from the Socialist Resistance movement, one of whom was waiving a Che Guevara flag. ¶4. (SBU) The speakers at the protest, which included Azat Chairman Bulat Abilov, Deputy Chairman Peter Svoik, "Pokolenie" leader Irina Savostina, and "Svoboda Slova" Editor-in-Chief Gulzhan Yergaliyeva, called for the immediate resignation of Prime Minister Karim Masimov and his government. They castigated the government for the recent devaluation of the national currency, the tenge, and for failing to cope with the global economic crisis. The crisis is the result of government "incompetence and avarice," railed Abilov in his address. "The sooner this government leaves, the sooner we will handle the economic crisis," announced Svoik. The protesters' slogans were aimed solely at Masimov's government, with no criticisms levied against President Nazarbayev himself. The rally ended with all the participants backing Azat's demand to "form a government of people's trust." REGIONS DENY PERMISSIONS FOR RALLIES ¶5. (SBU) Azat's original plan was to host rallies nation-wide at the same date and time. However, the party's applications to host public gatherings in the capitals of every one of Kazakhstan's 12 oblasts (regions) were all denied. The reasons for the denials varied, but all cited previously-planned activities that conflicted with the rally, including commemorations of the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, cultural events, and sports competitions. The Azat leadership expressed some skepticism at what they called the "feeble reasons" provided and reapplied for rally permits for February 28. To date, 10 of the 12 new applications have been denied, with regional administrations (akimats) again citing conflicting events. On this occasion, the Taldykorgan akimat claimed that preparations were in full swing for Maslinitsa, the celebrations before Russian Orthodox lent. The Kyzylorda region cited anti-flooding exercises, while the Aktobe authorities pointed to a hockey game. Azat deputy head Marzhan Aspanduyarova told us that the party intends to appeal these refusals in court, going as far as the Supreme Court if necessary. She had little doubt that the remaining two pending applications will also be denied. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Azat was expecting a much larger turnout in Almaty, and the authorities were apparently worried the party would succeed in bringing out a big crowd. Azat actually applied for a permit for a gathering of 3,000 to 5,000 people. The Procurator General's Office subsequently sent the party a letter reporting that ASTANA 00000369 002 OF 002 it had taken notice of the extensive advertising for the protest, and warning that a deliberate attempt to deliver a larger turnout than requested in the permit constituted misrepresentation to the authorities and could lead to "safety violations" that Azat's leadership would be held personally accountable for. With growing economic problems in Kazakhstan -- including a teetering banking system, layoffs at some large enterprises, a 20 percent devaluation of the tenge, and anecdotal reports of consumer price hikes -- the time should have been ripe for a bigger protest in the one city where the opposition has a strong base of support. And the protest was, in fact, widely publicized. An Almaty taxi driver who picked up PolOff several hours after the protest was well aware of the event -- he railed against President Nazarbayev and the Kazakhstani elite for "robbing the country blind" and said that the protest leaders speak the truth. That the protest fizzled could be the latest evidence of the weak appeal of the existing opposition parties and their limitations in mobilizing the public. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND