KAZAKHSTAN: CHINESE AMBASSADOR DENIES ANY CHINESE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000348

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/A, EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2033
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR CH AF RS KG UP KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: CHINESE AMBASSADOR DENIES ANY CHINESE
ROLE IN KYRGYZ DECISION TO CLOSE MANAS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Chinese Ambassador to Kazakhstan Cheng
Guoping told the Ambassador on February 24 that he expects
China will agree to participate in the Northern Distribution
Network (NDN) for commercial shipment of non-lethal supplies
to Afghanistan. He described China's principal objective in
Central Asia as promoting regional stability. Cheng confided
that Foreign Minister Tazhin will be in Beijing March 29-31
to prepare for an April visit to China by President
Nazarbayev. He denied China had any role in getting the
Kyrgyz to close Manas Air Base, claiming the Chinese "don't
take any pleasure" from the decision while adding that, in
any event, the closure is not a done deal. Cheng argued that
the developments surrounding Manas and the Georgia war have
strengthened Russia's hand in Central Asia and the CIS as a
whole, while weakening U.S. influence. China will be
watching Ukraine's parliamentary elections closely since the
results will further determine the relative influence of
Russia and the United States across the region. He said the
Chinese have not yet signed an agreement with Kazakhstan that
will allow them to construct a new building for the Chinese
Embassy in Astana. Their current rented embassy space is
cramped and inconvenient, and Cheng expressed appreciation
that the Ambassador hosts their meetings, since, in his
opinion, they cannot have secure conversations in Cheng's own
office. END SUMMARY.

EXPECTS CHINA TO SIGN ON TO NDN


2. (C) During a February 24 meeting with the Ambassador,
Chinese Ambassador to Kazakhstan Cheng Guoping said that
Beijing has noticed that U.S. foreign policy is changing
under President Obama, with the United States paying greater
attention to Asia, including to Afghanistan -- which China
sees as the top foreign policy priority for the Obama
Administration. Cheng described Afghanistan's problems as
"very complicated," and said that Afghan President Karzai
seems to control only Kabul itself. Nevertheless, China
strongly supports Coalition efforts against the Taliban and
Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and is particularly concerned about
Afghan narco-trafficking, which directly affects China, Cheng
explained. "Fighting the Taliban and Al-Qaeda is the
responsibility of all UN member states," he asserted.


3. (C) Cheng noted that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and
Tajikistan have agreed to participate in the Northern
Distribution Network (NDN) for commercial transport of
non-lethal goods for U.S. troops in Afghanistan. He
described the NDN as a "positive development" and said the
Chinese MFA is actively reviewing the U.S. proposal that
China participate in the NDN, too. While no final decision
has been made, he expected that in the end, China will sign
on to the NDN. "Including China in the NDN is a judicious
decision," he argued. Cheng noted that there will be an SCO
meeting in Moscow on March 27 to discuss Afghanistan, and
predicted that the meeting will result in "positive decisions
on relevant issues."

CLAIMS NO CHINESE ROLE IN MANAS CLOSURE


4. (C) Cheng explained that China's principal objective in
Central Asia is the promotion of regional stability. He
singled out Uzbekistan as unstable internally -- which he
claimed makes Uzbek President Karimov reluctant to travel
outside his country. Cheng confided that Kazakhstani Foreign
Minister Tazhin will travel to Beijing March 29-31 to prepare
for an April visit to China by President Nazarbayev.


5. (C) The Ambassador asked Cheng about the Chinese
government's views on the closure of Manas Air Base. Cheng
responded dismissively, "Frankly speaking, this didn't have
much to do with us." He said the Kyrgyz decision to make
Manas available to the United States after September 11 was
the right thing to do. As far as the Chinese understand, the
Kyrgyz are closing Manas now for their own domestic reasons.
Their economic situation is bad, which has caused a lot of
problems for President Bakiyev. He needed money, but the

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United States didn't agree to pay more for the base. Russia,
however, agreed to provide $2 billion in loans and investment
and pushed Bakiyev to close the base in return. In any
event, sovereign countries have a right to make their own
decisions, and other countries don't have a right to
intervene, Cheng argued.


6. (C) To test his reaction, the Ambassador told Cheng that
the Kyrgyz had hinted to us privately that the Chinese would
not provide them assistance unless they closed Manas. Cheng
dismissed this claim, saying, "I was previously head of our
MFA's Eurasia Department before coming here (last fall) as
Ambassador and would have been in a position to know. I
don't think this corresponds with the facts. We have been
providing them assistance all along, and in 2007 even gave
them almost a billion yuan to help them with the Bishkek SCO
Summit. We don't take any pleasure from the closure of
Manas. Perhaps the Kyrgyz don't want to hurt your feelings,
and that's why they put all the responsibility on Russia and
China." In any event, Cheng maintained that the closure of
Manas is not a done deal -- whether it actually happens will
depend on U.S.-Kyrgyz negotiations and, more importantly, on
whether the Russians actually follow through on their
financial commitments. He expressed doubts about Russia's
ability to do so because of its own economic problems.

SAYS SITUATION IN CIS NOW MORE FAVORABLE TO RUSSIA


7. (C) Cheng maintained that, taken together, the latest
developments with Manas and the results of the Georgia
conflict have changed the balance of power between the United
States and Russia within the CIS. After the Orange
Revolution in Ukraine, the Russians were in a bad position,
but now the situation is favorable to them. The Russians
have recently adopted a more aggressive approach toward the
other CIS countries, especially toward Central Asia. China
is closely watching the upcoming Ukrainian parliamentary
elections, the outcome of which will be a further critical
determinant of the relative influence of Russia and the
United States across the whole CIS region. Cheng claimed
that Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko was once
pro-American, but now is leaning more toward Russia, hinting
that this is an indication the winds are blowing Russia's way
in Ukraine. "We hope that in any event you can improve your
relations with Russia, and that the United States and Russia
will cooperate more in the international area," Cheng stated.


BELIEVES UNITED STATES NO LONGER FAVORS COLOR REVOLUTIONS


8. (C) Cheng explained that he has been following the
Ambassador's public statements very closely, and in comparing
these statements to those of the Ambassador's predecessor, he
has detected a shift in U.S. policy toward Kazakhstan and the
rest of Central Asia. The United States now seems more
focused on promoting stability and prosperity, and no longer
wants to foster "color revolutions." Cheng said he found
this approach "persuasive" in winning the support of the
Central Asian countries. The Ambassador explained that our
policy had never been to foster revolutions, but explained
that he personaly believes it is more effective to be frank
with other governments in private than to criticize them
publicly.

ADMITS STILL NO AGREEMENT ON NEW CHINESE EMBASSY


9. (C) The Ambassador asked Cheng about progress on a new
building for the Chinese Embassy in Astana. Cheng said with
some degree of exasperation that China still has not signed
an agreement with Kazakhstan that will allow the Chinese to
begin construction. He said he was envious of the U.S.
Embassy, because the Chinese are currently occupying
inconvenient, cramped rented space. He expressed
appreciation that the Ambassador hosts their meetings, since,
in his opinion, they cannot have secure conversations in
Cheng's own office. Cheng noted that his daughter will soon
be studying in the United States -- she will make a final
decision in the next month among Columbia, Duke, and the

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University of Chicago -- and asked for assistance in
obtaining a multiple-entry U.S. visa for his wife, so that
she can visit the daughter regularly.

HOAGLAND