KAZAKHSTAN: DEPUTY SECRETARY OF NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 002066

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: 11/19/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR CH RS UZ KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: DEPUTY SECRETARY OF NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WARMLY WELCOMES MARSHALL CENTER DEPUTY DIRECTOR

REF: A. ASTANA 621

B. ASTANA 1210

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Pamela L. Spratlen, 1.4 (b),
(d)


1. (S) SUMMARY: On November 12, Deputy Director of the Marshall
Center, Dr. James MacDougall, met with Kazakhstan's Deputy Secretary
of the National Security Council (NSC),Marat Shaikhutdinov, to
discuss continued support for participation in Marshall Center
programs. Shaikhutdinov -- and former Marshall program participants
-- praised the center as one of the world's most prestigious
institutions. In order to help Kazakhstan strengthen the NSC's
analytical capability, Shaikhutdinov asked for the Marshall Center to
train NSC staff in Kazakhstan, and welcomed the idea of hosting
regional Marshall Center conferences. Shaikhutdinov said it is too
late for an effective OSCE-related Marshall Center training event
prior to Kazakhstan's assumption of the Chairmanship, but did not
rule out an OSCE-related event in 2010. He also discussed
Kazakhstan's geo-political significance, its strong ties with think
tanks in various powerful countries, and how these attributes could
make Kazakhstan an ideal host for a regional security forum. END
SUMMARY.

KAZAKHSTANI MARSHALL GRADUATES PRAISE CENTER'S PROGRAMS


2. (S) MacDougall described the Marshall Center's programs, and
thanked Kazakhstan for sending participants. In recent years,
approximately 10 National Security Council (NSC) staff participated
in resident and outreach courses. Currently, six Kazakhstani
students are attending the annual Program on Advanced Security
Studies. Many of Kazakhstan's previous Marshall Center graduates
currently hold influential positions in the government, such as Chief
of the Security Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs'
Multilateral Cooperation Department and acting Director of the
Ministry of Defense's International Cooperation Department. During a
previous representational event this year, Kazakhstani officials from
five different ministries thanked the Marshall Center for the
opportunity to exchange opinions with other young leaders from around
the world (ref A). At a November 12 reception hosted by the
Ambassador, high-level Kazakhstani graduates also praised the
Marshall Center for expanding their world view and increasing their
effectiveness.

NSC PRAISES MARSHALL CENTER AND ITS COURSES


3. (S) In response to MacDougall's request that the National
Security Council continue to send staff members to the Marshall
Center, Shaikhutdinov warmly thanked MacDougall for his visit, and
called the Marshall Center "one of the most advanced institutes in
the world." Shaikhutdinov said that since his appointment two months
ago, under instructions from NSC State Secretary Tazhin, he has been
working to build the Council's capacity. "We are trying to attract
new blood to the NSC," Shaikhutdinov stated frankly. He said he
looked forward to continuing to send his staff to the Marshall Center
"very prestigious" courses.

PLEASE BRING MARSHALL CENTER COURSES TO KAZAKHSTAN


4. (S) Noting the NSC's inability to function without its staff,
which makes it difficult to send them to long-term training courses,
Shaikhutdinov asked MacDougall if the Marshall Center can arrange
conferences in, and send lecturers to, Kazakhstan. MacDougall
explained the process to request training courses and highlighted the
Marshall Center's regional conferences, such as one on border
security planned for Astana next year.

TOO LATE FOR AN OSCE TRAINING COURSE


5. (S) MacDougall noted that last year during the Astana visit of
Marshall Center Director Dr. John Rose, Rose discussed a Marshall
Center OSCE training event related to Kazakhstan's 2010 Chairmanship.
Noting Kazakhstan's extensive preparations for its Chairmanship,

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MacDougall asked if Kazakhstan still desired such a training course.
Shaikhutdinov thanked MacDougall, and said that Kazakhstan had indeed
worked very hard to prepare during 2009. He asserted that there is
probably too little time remaining before Kazakhstan assumes the
Chairmanship to justify a specific Marshall Center OSCE training
program. MacDougall replied that the Marshall Center remains
available to assist on whatever issues Kazakhstan requests, and noted
that Kazakhstan may wish to ask for a Marshall Center conference on
one or several of its OSCE priority themes. Shaikhutdinov agreed to
consider MacDougall's "constructive" proposals.

BUT NSC OPEN TO TRAINING PROGRAMS ON TERRORISM AND AFGHANISTAN


6. (S) Shaikhutdinov said Kazakhstan's NSC -- and other agencies --
would particularly appreciate training courses related to terrorism.
"We would like to hold events similar to recent Marshall Center
conferences held in Uzbekistan," Shaikhutdinov told MacDougall. One
reason for Kazakhstan's eagerness to host such events, Shaikhutdinov
explained, is its efforts to enhance the government's analytical
structures. "Kazakhstan and the United States share many problems,"
Shaikhutdinov said. However, he emphasized Kazakhstan's commitment
to hosting serious, quality events -- "fully-fledged analytical
cooperation" rather than one-off conferences. "Cooperation has to
evolve," Shaikhutdinov declared, "When the Marshall Center Director
visited last year, Kazakhstan's most pressing issue was preparation
for the OSCE Chairmanship. Now we are working to bring stability to
Afghanistan and Pakistan."

BUILDING CLOSE RELATIONS WITH THINK TANKS IN RUSSIA AND CHINA


7. (S) According to Shaikhutdinov, Kazakhstan could significantly
contribute to enhancement of regional security through its close
relations with various superpowers, including the United States,
Russia, and China. He said Kazakhstan's NSC, and its think tanks,
cooperate closely with research centers, private and
government-affiliated think tanks, and academic organizations in
Russia, China, the United States, Europe, and many other countries.
In particular, Shaikhutdinov praised cooperation with the Johns
Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and the
Carnegie Center in the United States, "think tanks in Russia that
have a real influence on policymaking in the Kremlin," and "other
influential think tanks in China, not just in Beijing, but also in
Shanghai and other regions." Shaikhutdinov said this statement aimed
was not a boast, but underscored Kazakhstan's desire to host an event
in order to discuss serious problems that affect not just Kazakhstan,
but the entire region.

DEPUTY SECRETARY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT REGIONAL SECURITY FORUM


8. (S) More generally, MacDougall mentioned that the region might
benefit from a broad security conference, such as the Shangri La
Forum in Asia, the Munich Security Policy Forum (former "Wehrkunde"),
or Manama dialogues. Shaikhutdinov seized the idea eagerly, stating
that he had been considering such a proposal, because Kazakhstan
would be an ideal venue. Shaikhutdinov added, "Because I am an
academic, not a politician, this idea is, of course, very interesting
to me. Given our strategic geo-political position, Kazakhstan would
be a suitable host." He asserted that Kazakhstan would invite not
only government representatives, but also academics, NGOs, and
business representatives, in order to make it "objective and
unbiased."

FORUM MUST INCLUDE CHINA, CASPIAN STATES, AND SOUTH ASIA


9. (S) Shaikhutdinov advocated for a forum encompass more than
Central Asia, because "Central Asian interests are intimately
connected to the interests of the Caspian littoral states." (NOTE:
Caspian littoral states include Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan,
Turkmenistan, and Iran. END NOTE.) Shaikhutdinov also declared that
security conferences in Central Asia must involve South Asia.
According to Shaikhutdinov, "We must include China as well, since
events in China, especially in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region
(XUAR),also affect Central Asia" (ref B). Shaikhutdinov suggested

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that given the geopolitical significance of Central Asia, high-level
regional Central Asian security forums should become an annual event,
because whether in 2010 or in 2015, problems are not going to go
away.

GOVERNMENT TOUTS GOOD RELATIONS WITH INTERNATIONAL EXPERTS


10. (S) Shaikhutdinov expressed his hope that several international
specialists with whom the Kazakhstani government has excellent
relations would be interested in a possible regional security forum.
In particular, he mentioned Kenneth Starr of SAIS and Martha Olcott
of the Carnegie Endowment from the United States, Alexei Vassiliev
from Moscow State University in Russia, former Kyrgyz Minister of
Foreign Affairs Muratbek Imanaliyev, and independent Chinese
think-tank analyst and former Secretary General of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization Zhang De Guang. Shaikhutdinov also said,
"My presence, and Professor Tazhin's, is to strengthen the NSC's
analytical capability, and we just set up a new think tank, staffed
by international experts, that will be critical in reaching this
goal."

NSC REACHES OUT TO PARTNER WITH MARSHALL CENTER


11. (S) To bolster the case for Kazakhstan's hosting a regional
security forum, Shaikhutdinov cited his country's experience in
holding international events. He underscored his personal
commitment, telling MacDougall, "In my primary capacity as an
academic, I can promise all kinds of support." Emphasizing his
cautious ambition for Kazakhstan's role as a leader in the Central
Asian region, Shaikhutdinov mused aloud that although the regional
security forum would not rival the Munich dialogue, it was an
excellent idea, which Kazakhstan would like to pursue in the long
term. Shaikhutdinov concluded by pledging continued good cooperation
with the Marshall Center during his tenure at the NSC.


12. (C) COMMENT: Shaikhutdinov's enthusiastic and off-the-cuff
response -- to a casual suggestion about a regional forum --
demonstrates senior-level Kazakhstani interest in the country's
assumption of a leadership role in Central Asia. Given Kazakhstan's
geo-strategic position, such an event could build better cooperation
in this complex corner of the world -- as long as Kazakhstan obtains
support from the other aspirant to regional leadership, Uzbekistan.
END COMMENT.


13. (U) Deputy Director of the Marshall Center, Dr. James
MacDougall, cleared this cable.

SPRATLEN