KAZAKHSTAN: DEPUTY SECRETARY OF NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 002066 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/RPM E.O. 12958: 11/19/2029 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR CH RS UZ KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: DEPUTY SECRETARY OF NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WARMLY WELCOMES MARSHALL CENTER DEPUTY DIRECTOR REF: A. ASTANA 621 ¶B. ASTANA 1210 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Pamela L. Spratlen, 1.4 (b), (d) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: On November 12, Deputy Director of the Marshall Center, Dr. James MacDougall, met with Kazakhstan's Deputy Secretary of the National Security Council (NSC),Marat Shaikhutdinov, to discuss continued support for participation in Marshall Center programs. Shaikhutdinov -- and former Marshall program participants -- praised the center as one of the world's most prestigious institutions. In order to help Kazakhstan strengthen the NSC's analytical capability, Shaikhutdinov asked for the Marshall Center to train NSC staff in Kazakhstan, and welcomed the idea of hosting regional Marshall Center conferences. Shaikhutdinov said it is too late for an effective OSCE-related Marshall Center training event prior to Kazakhstan's assumption of the Chairmanship, but did not rule out an OSCE-related event in 2010. He also discussed Kazakhstan's geo-political significance, its strong ties with think tanks in various powerful countries, and how these attributes could make Kazakhstan an ideal host for a regional security forum. END SUMMARY. KAZAKHSTANI MARSHALL GRADUATES PRAISE CENTER'S PROGRAMS ¶2. (S) MacDougall described the Marshall Center's programs, and thanked Kazakhstan for sending participants. In recent years, approximately 10 National Security Council (NSC) staff participated in resident and outreach courses. Currently, six Kazakhstani students are attending the annual Program on Advanced Security Studies. Many of Kazakhstan's previous Marshall Center graduates currently hold influential positions in the government, such as Chief of the Security Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Multilateral Cooperation Department and acting Director of the Ministry of Defense's International Cooperation Department. During a previous representational event this year, Kazakhstani officials from five different ministries thanked the Marshall Center for the opportunity to exchange opinions with other young leaders from around the world (ref A). At a November 12 reception hosted by the Ambassador, high-level Kazakhstani graduates also praised the Marshall Center for expanding their world view and increasing their effectiveness. ;NSC PRAISES MARSHALL CENTER AND ITS COURSES ¶3. (S) In response to MacDougall's request that the National Security Council continue to send staff members to the Marshall Center, Shaikhutdinov warmly thanked MacDougall for his visit, and called the Marshall Center "one of the most advanced institutes in the world." Shaikhutdinov said that since his appointment two months ago, under instructions from NSC State Secretary Tazhin, he has been working to build the Council's capacity. "We are trying to attract new blood to the NSC," Shaikhutdinov stated frankly. He said he looked forward to continuing to send his staff to the Marshall Center "very prestigious" courses. PLEASE BRING MARSHALL CENTER COURSES TO KAZAKHSTAN ¶4. (S) Noting the NSC's inability to function without its staff, which makes it difficult to send them to long-term training courses, Shaikhutdinov asked MacDougall if the Marshall Center can arrange conferences in, and send lecturers to, Kazakhstan. MacDougall explained the process to request training courses and highlighted the Marshall Center's regional conferences, such as one on border security planned for Astana next year. TOO LATE FOR AN OSCE TRAINING COURSE ¶5. (S) MacDougall noted that last year during the Astana visit of Marshall Center Director Dr. John Rose, Rose discussed a Marshall Center OSCE training event related to Kazakhstan's 2010 Chairmanship. Noting Kazakhstan's extensive preparations for its Chairmanship, ASTANA 00002066 002 OF 003 MacDougall asked if Kazakhstan still desired such a training course. Shaikhutdinov thanked MacDougall, and said that Kazakhstan had indeed worked very hard to prepare during 2009. He asserted that there is probably too little time remaining before Kazakhstan assumes the Chairmanship to justify a specific Marshall Center OSCE training program. MacDougall replied that the Marshall Center remains available to assist on whatever issues Kazakhstan requests, and noted that Kazakhstan may wish to ask for a Marshall Center conference on one or several of its OSCE priority themes. Shaikhutdinov agreed to consider MacDougall's "constructive" proposals. BUT NSC OPEN TO TRAINING PROGRAMS ON TERRORISM AND AFGHANISTAN ¶6. (S) Shaikhutdinov said Kazakhstan's NSC -- and other agencies -- would particularly appreciate training courses related to terrorism. "We would like to hold events similar to recent Marshall Center conferences held in Uzbekistan," Shaikhutdinov told MacDougall. One reason for Kazakhstan's eagerness to host such events, Shaikhutdinov explained, is its efforts to enhance the government's analytical structures. "Kazakhstan and the United States share many problems," Shaikhutdinov said. However, he emphasized Kazakhstan's commitment to hosting serious, quality events -- "fully-fledged analytical cooperation" rather than one-off conferences. "Cooperation has to evolve," Shaikhutdinov declared, "When the Marshall Center Director visited last year, Kazakhstan's most pressing issue was preparation for the OSCE Chairmanship. Now we are working to bring stability to Afghanistan and Pakistan." BUILDING CLOSE RELATIONS WITH THINK TANKS IN RUSSIA AND CHINA ¶7. (S) According to Shaikhutdinov, Kazakhstan could significantly contribute to enhancement of regional security through its close relations with various superpowers, including the United States, Russia, and China. He said Kazakhstan's NSC, and its think tanks, cooperate closely with research centers, private and government-affiliated think tanks, and academic organizations in Russia, China, the United States, Europe, and many other countries. In particular, Shaikhutdinov praised cooperation with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and the Carnegie Center in the United States, "think tanks in Russia that have a real influence on policymaking in the Kremlin," and "other influential think tanks in China, not just in Beijing, but also in Shanghai and other regions." Shaikhutdinov said this statement aimed was not a boast, but underscored Kazakhstan's desire to host an event in order to discuss serious problems that affect not just Kazakhstan, but the entire region. DEPUTY SECRETARY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT REGIONAL SECURITY FORUM ¶8. (S) More generally, MacDougall mentioned that the region might benefit from a broad security conference, such as the Shangri La Forum in Asia, the Munich Security Policy Forum (former "Wehrkunde"), or Manama dialogues. Shaikhutdinov seized the idea eagerly, stating that he had been considering such a proposal, because Kazakhstan would be an ideal venue. Shaikhutdinov added, "Because I am an academic, not a politician, this idea is, of course, very interesting to me. Given our strategic geo-political position, Kazakhstan would be a suitable host." He asserted that Kazakhstan would invite not only government representatives, but also academics, NGOs, and business representatives, in order to make it "objective and unbiased." FORUM MUST INCLUDE CHINA, CASPIAN STATES, AND SOUTH ASIA ¶9. (S) Shaikhutdinov advocated for a forum encompass more than Central Asia, because "Central Asian interests are intimately connected to the interests of the Caspian littoral states." (NOTE: Caspian littoral states include Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. END NOTE.) Shaikhutdinov also declared that security conferences in Central Asia must involve South Asia. According to Shaikhutdinov, "We must include China as well, since events in China, especially in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR),also affect Central Asia" (ref B). Shaikhutdinov suggested ASTANA 00002066 003 OF 003 that given the geopolitical significance of Central Asia, high-level regional Central Asian security forums should become an annual event, because whether in 2010 or in 2015, problems are not going to go away. GOVERNMENT TOUTS GOOD RELATIONS WITH INTERNATIONAL EXPERTS ¶10. (S) Shaikhutdinov expressed his hope that several international specialists with whom the Kazakhstani government has excellent relations would be interested in a possible regional security forum. In particular, he mentioned Kenneth Starr of SAIS and Martha Olcott of the Carnegie Endowment from the United States, Alexei Vassiliev from Moscow State University in Russia, former Kyrgyz Minister of Foreign Affairs Muratbek Imanaliyev, and independent Chinese think-tank analyst and former Secretary General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Zhang De Guang. Shaikhutdinov also said, "My presence, and Professor Tazhin's, is to strengthen the NSC's analytical capability, and we just set up a new think tank, staffed by international experts, that will be critical in reaching this goal." NSC REACHES OUT TO PARTNER WITH MARSHALL CENTER ¶11. (S) To bolster the case for Kazakhstan's hosting a regional security forum, Shaikhutdinov cited his country's experience in holding international events. He underscored his personal commitment, telling MacDougall, "In my primary capacity as an academic, I can promise all kinds of support." Emphasizing his cautious ambition for Kazakhstan's role as a leader in the Central Asian region, Shaikhutdinov mused aloud that although the regional security forum would not rival the Munich dialogue, it was an excellent idea, which Kazakhstan would like to pursue in the long term. Shaikhutdinov concluded by pledging continued good cooperation with the Marshall Center during his tenure at the NSC. ¶12. (C) COMMENT: Shaikhutdinov's enthusiastic and off-the-cuff response -- to a casual suggestion about a regional forum -- demonstrates senior-level Kazakhstani interest in the country's assumption of a leadership role in Central Asia. Given Kazakhstan's geo-strategic position, such an event could build better cooperation in this complex corner of the world -- as long as Kazakhstan obtains support from the other aspirant to regional leadership, Uzbekistan. END COMMENT. ¶13. (U) Deputy Director of the Marshall Center, Dr. James MacDougall, cleared this cable. SPRATLEN