KAZAKHSTAN: MINISTRY OF ENERGY OFFICIAL DISCUSSES NATURAL

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TAGS: PGOV ECON EPET EINV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MINISTRY OF ENERGY OFFICIAL DISCUSSES NATURAL
GAS MARKET DYNAMICS

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1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: On January 21, Energy Officer discussed the
production, marketing, and sale of Kazakhstani gas with an official
from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. He described the
role of market intermediaries KazTransGas, KazRosGas, and Gazprom,
disclosed prices Kazakhstan pays to import gas from Russia and
Uzbekistan, announced Kazakhstan would soon increase the transit
fees it charges Gazprom, praised Russia for being a reliable
partner, and criticized Uzbekistan for dramatic price increases and
unpredictable supply. END SUMMARY.

THE STRUCTURE OF KAZAKHSTAN'S GAS MARKET


3. (SBU) On January 21, Energy Officer met with Timur Imashev,
Director of the Gas Industry Department in the Ministry of Energy
and Mineral Resources, to discuss the gas market in Kazakhstan.
After numerous attempts to explain the convoluted connections and
overlapping owners of Kazakhstan's gas market, Imashev hurriedly
took out a blank sheet of paper, scribbled a series of circles and
arrows, and explained that there are two main market mechanisms for
the transportation and sale of gas in Kazakhstan, one in the west
and one in the south of the country.

KAZROSGAS: MORE THAN A MERE MIDDLEMAN


4. (SBU) Kazakhstan produces approximately 30 billion cubic meters
(bcm) of gas annually, including liquefied natural gas, natural gas
liquids, and dry natural gas. The operators of large fields in
Karachaganak in Western Kazakhstan oblast, Tolkyn in Mangistau
oblast, and Tengiz in Atyrau oblast sell their natural gas to
KazRosGas, a 50-50 joint venture of KazMunaiGas (KMG) and Gazprom.
(NOTE: KazRosGas was established during a state visit to Kazakhstan
by Russian President Putin on November 28, 2001. Its mandate is to
manage Kazakhstan's gas import and export operations; treat raw gas
at processing plants; explore, develop, and operate gas fields;
secure natural gas transport routes; conduct gas swap operations;
and operate joint venture projects in natural gas transportation.
KazRosGas is registered in Astana and maintains offices in Moscow
and Zug, a well-known tax haven in Switzerland where Ukraine's
notorious RosUkrEnergo is also registered. Kairat Boranbayev is
Chairman and General Director; other senior executives include Asia
Sirgabekova, First Deputy Director for Economic Issues; Nurlan
Abdrasulov, First Deputy Director for Marketing; and Malik
Kushaliev, Deputy Director for Legal Affairs. Kushaliev is also the
point of contact for a company called Centrex Central Asia Gas,
which is registered in Baar, Switzerland. END NOTE).


5. (SBU) According to Imashev, KazRosGas transports gas from
Karachaganak, Tolkyn, and Tengiz to Orenburg, Russia, where it is
processed for commercial sale. KazRosGas then imports the processed
gas into Kazakhstan and sells approximately 10 bcm to regional gas
distribution companies such as KazTransGas-Aimak, a wholly-owned
subsidiary of KMG, for domestic users in western Kazakhstan.
KazRosGas also sells up to 1.2 billion cubic meters to Gazprom for
Russia's domestic consumption via the Central Asia Center (CAC) gas
pipeline, which is operated by Intergaz Central Asia (ICA). (NOTE:
ICA is a wholly owned subsidiary of KazTransGas and the monopoly
operator of gas transportation pipelines in Kazakhstan. ICA manages
the network of gas pipelines in Kazakhstan on the basis of a 20-year
concession agreement with the government, which is valid until 2017.
ICA's total (both domestic and export) gas transportation volume
plan for 2007 was 124.8 bcm. KazMunaiGas, not Gazprom, owns the 900
kilometers of CAC pipeline on Kazakhstani territory. END NOTE).

TENGIZCHEVROIL GAS PRODUCTION, MARKETING AND SALES


6. (SBU) In 2008, Tengizchevroil (TCO) produced approximately 6.8
billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas. According to TCO's Commercial
Manager for Products, Marketing and Transportation, Mark Heinemann
(protect),in 2008, TCO sold 1.84 bcm to more than 16 domestic
customers -- including industrial enterprises and regional

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governments in Atyrau, Mangistau, and Western Kazakhstan -- and 1.92
bcm to KazRosGas for export. TCO used the balance of production
(more than 3 bcm) for re-injection and operational purposes. TCO's
domestic sales were concluded directly with end-users and the gas
was transported via pipeline between Tengiz and Kulsary and via the
CAC.


7. (SBU) Heinemann said that TCO's export sales were handled by
KazRosGas and one other, unnamed buyer and transported via the CAC.
Heinemann noted that Gazprom controls all of the gas pipelines in
Russia and does not allow other parties such as TCO to make direct
sales to customers in Russia. He confirmed that TCO sells gas for
export to KazRosGas, which sells it to RosUkrEnergo, the only
company authorized by Gazprom to bundle gas from Central Asia and
package it for onward shipment and sale. RosUkrEnergo then sells
the bundled gas to UkrNaftoHaz, which sells it directly to customers
in Ukraine. Heinemann said that Gazprom has strictly prohibited any
gas from Central Asia to be sold to markets or customers in Western
Europe and he expects that arrangement to continue.


8. (SBU) TCO also produces butane and propane liquid petroleum gas
(LPG),which it sells to domestic buyers in Kazakhstan. According
to Heinemann, in 2008, TCO produced approximately 851,000 metric
tons of LPG. TCO sold 58,000 metric tons of LPG to customers in
Kazakhstan and 801,000 metric tons to customers in Europe and
Turkey. The difference of 7,000 metric tons came from inventory.
All deliveries of LPG were made by LPG rail tank car.

UZBEKISTAN GAS SUPPLIES KAZAKHSTAN'S SOUTHERN REGION


9. (SBU) KazTransGas buys natural gas from Uzbekistan and
transports it to customers in the south-eastern region of
Kazakhstan. Imashev said that Kazakhstan typically buys more gas
than it needs from Uzbekistan and swaps a certain percentage with
Russia (he said 100 million cubic meters, but that may have been
merely for illustrative purposes). KazTransGas sends the swap
amount northward to Alexandrov Gai in Russia via the CAC, where
Gazprom provides an equivalent amount to KazTransGas for domestic
use in the western region. Imashev had high praise for Russia's
role in these transactions, saying, "They meet us more than half way
and handle all of the customs paperwork to import and export the
gas."

WHAT PRICE DOES KAZAKHSTAN PAY FOR GAS?


10. (SBU) Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V. representatives
said they sell sour (unprocessed) gas to KazRosGas for approximately
$20 per thousand cubic meters (tcm). Imashev confided that
KazTransGas pays approximately $80/tcm for clean, dry gas from
Orenburg. He said that KazTransGas pays approximately $300/tcm for
the Uzbek gas delivered to Kazakhstan's southern domestic market,
nearly twice the amount it paid in 2008. Imashev conceded that
Uzbekistan has every right to charge what the market will bear, but
he complained that since there is no firm contract in place,
Uzbekistan is free to change the terms and delay or cut supplies at
will, without penalty. He said Uzbekistan will even "cut of the tap
from time to time. They're playing games with us." (NOTE:
KazTransGas is building a west-south gas pipeline from Beineu to
Bozoi to Akbulak to avoid importing gas from Uzbekistan.
Construction has been delayed because of the financial crisis, but
this remains a high priority project for KMG. END NOTE). Minister
of Energy and Mineral Resources Sauat Mynbayev would not disclose
the price Kazakhstan will pay to import gas from Russia, but he did
tell journalists on January 21 that KMG signed a deal with Gazprom
on December 31, 2008, to supply 4.6 bcm to the Kazakhstani domestic
market.

EUROPEAN PRICES COME TO CENTRAL ASIA


11. (U) On January 21, Prime Minister Karim Masimov ordered the
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources to calculate the impact of
Russia's anticipated shift to European pricing for gas. "There is

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no way out of this situation," he said. "We need to be very well
prepared for this transition. We need to know what it will cost
us." Masimov then added, "I took part in the gas dispute between
Russia and Ukraine and there is one very important conclusion we
must draw: Russia will move to European prices at home and with
exports to Ukraine and other countries in 2011." (NOTE: In
January, Gazprom signed contracts with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
to purchase natural gas at approximately $301/tcm in the first
quarter of 2009, more than double what it paid in 2008. END NOTE).

KAZAKHSTAN RAISES TRANSIT TARIFFS


12. (U) Perhaps in anticipation of paying higher prices for Uzbek
and Russian gas, on January 22, KMG increased the transit fee it
charges Gazprom by 21%, from $1.40/tcm per 100 km to $1.70/tcm per
100 km in 2009. (COMMENT: This rate is below European market
rates, but is approximately the same amount that Ukraine charges
Gazprom to transit gas to Europe. END COMMENT).

GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES BAN ON GAS FLARING


13. (U) On January 16, the Minister of Environmental Protection,
Nurlan Iskakov, announced that the Ministry would stop issuing
mineral resources licenses to oil companies if they fail to comply
with gas utilization standards. "There will be no licenses issued
to any of the 30 oil companies after 2010 unless they cease all gas
flaring," he said at a meeting of the environment protection
committee. In 2008, Iskakov claimed companies in Kazakhstan flared
6.9 billion cubic meters of natural gas. He said that China's
National Petroleum Corporation already incurs a fine of $80,000 per
day for excessive flaring.


14. (SBU) The Ministry of Energy's Imashev said the government is
serious about reducing emissions, but he admitted that zero
emissions is an "impossible standard." Imashev said that gas
flaring is necessary for safety reasons to provide an emergency
outlet to relieve pressure in the well. He said that the Ministry
of Energy has made this point to the Cabinet and will continue to
discuss and debate the Ministry of Environmental Protection's new
measure.


15. (SBU) COMMENT: Tracing the steps and stages of the gas market
in Kazakhstan is not easy to do. In particular, precious little
information is publicly available about the trading companies that
market and transport Kazakhstan's natural gas, both domestically and
to export markets. Even privately, foreign companies and government
officials are loath to disclose proprietary information about price,
volume, and fees. Nevertheless, from the information we have
gathered to date, it is clear that intermediaries such as Gazprom
and KazRosGas play a critical, and lucrative, role getting
Kazakhstan's gas to market and have significant influence over who
gets what, when, and how much they pay. END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND