KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER HEARS MESSAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 001399

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, P/M, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MARR KDEM OSCE RS KG KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER HEARS MESSAGE
ON DEMOCRACY, SAYS CSTO BASE IN KYRGYZSTAN WAS A SURPRISE

REF: A. ASTANA 1166

B. MOSCOW 2070

Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland: 1.4 (B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: During a frank conversation with the
Ambassador on August 12, Presidential Adviser Kairat Sarybai
said he expected that the new State Commission for the OSCE
would propose further steps, "since that is part of the
commission's mandate," that could be taken on democratization
before Kazakhstan assumes the OSCE chairmanship in 2010.
Sarybai also averred that Russia's announcement of a new CSTO
military base in Kyrgyzstan had blindsided Kazakhstan. When
President Nazarbayev demanded an explanation, Russian
President Medvedev allegedly replied that this was strictly a
bilateral agreement between Russia and Kyrgyzstan, and that
Russia would simply use the base to train Kyrgyz troops. END
SUMMARY.

TIME FOR SOME MORE STEPS FORWARD ON DEMOCRACY


2. (C) During an August 12 meeting with Presidential Foreign
Policy Adviser Kairat Sarybai, the Ambassador told him that
the trend of events in Kazakhstan is raising some eyebrows in
Washington, as well as in Europe. The most high-profile
examples drawing attention are the passage of the Internet
Law and the trial and conviction of journalist Ramzan
Yesergepov. Kazakhstan is under closer scrutiny and is being
held to higher international expectations because of its
upcoming 2010 OSCE chairmanship. The Ambassador suggested it
would be important to take some concrete steps soon to
improve this image -- and reality -- problem. He recommended
that the government of Kazakhstan consider initiating action
to follow up on the request by Under Secretary of State Burns
to Foreign Minister Tazhin during their private one-on-one
meeting in Astana on July 10 -- that Kazakhstan take concrete
steps toward further fulfillment of its "Madrid commitments,"
before it takes the OSCE chairmanship on January 1, 2010
(reftel A). Such a concrete step that would be well-received
in Washington, Brussels, and Vienna, could be, for example,
to decriminalize libel for the mass media. Another valuable
step would be to establish by law fully independent election
commissions. The Ambassador conceded this latter suggestion
might be harder, but argued that President Nazarbayev is
strong and broadly supported by Kazakhstan's voters; he can
afford to take such a "radical" step, which would gain him
considerable international credit.


3. (C) Sarybai thanked the Ambassador for this "straight
talk" and said, "We will consider this closely." He noted
that the newly formed State Commission for the OSCE mwould
likely, in fact, as part of its mandate propose next steps
that can be taken on democracy. "But," Sarybai cautioned, "I
want you to remember, as President Nazarbayev told Under
Secretary Burns, that democratization in Kazakhstan is not
tied to our OSCE chairmanship; it's an ongoing process that
must take into account the political, cultural, and social
traditions and conditions of the nation." (NOTE: The new
State Commission for the OSCE, announced several days earlier
in the press, is an inter-agency body, but does not, we're
told, include civil society representatives. We are seeking
more details about this commission. END NOTE.)


4. (C) Later in the conversation, Sarybai reminded the
Ambassador that President Obama is welcome to visit
Kazakhstan at any time, "perhaps a brief visit in conjuction
with an Obama visit to a larger country in the region." He
added that President Nazarbayev would appreciate a separate
bilateral visit to Washington next spring at the time of the
Nuclear Security Summit, which he plans to attend. The
Ambassador responded frankly that working to achieve either
or both would be easier if Kazakhstan would evidence some
positive steps as we had just discussed. Sarybai asked, "Are
these preconditions?" The Ambassador said, "No, our new
administration does not necessarily do 'preconditions.'
However, as an enormously experienced diplomat yourself,
surely you understand the power of negative image and

ASTANA 00001399 002 OF 002


positive perception." Sarybai smiled and said, "Message
received."


5. (C) COMMENT: We recall that Sarybai had once told us
that letters of protest by international NGOs, along with
frank, quiet diplomacy from respected embassies, have the
tendency to catch President Nazarbayev's attention. However,
he is not likely to back down on the Internet Law and the
Yesergepov case, we are convinced, because both are in one
way or another a result of his cosmic feud with his
ex-son-in-law, Rakhat Aliyev, now exiled in Europe and
publishing exposes like "Godfather-in-Law." However, we do
hold out hope for Kazakhstan's new State Commission for the
OSCE, and are cautiously optimistic that positive steps on
democratization might result from it. END COMMENT.

NAZARBAYEV BLINDSIDED ON CSTO BASE IN KYRGYZSTAN?


6. (C) Sarybai had just returned from accompanying President
Nazarbayev to the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) informal summit in Kyrgyzstan. He commented that the
summit was held "without agenda"; and so, little was prepared
and even less accomplished (see reftel B). The real reason
for the summit, he speculated, was to toast President
Bakiyev's birthday,an old Soviet tradition among leaders.


7. (C) Sarybai said he wanted to pass along a private
conversation he had had with his Moscow counterpart, Sergei
Prikhodko, who had enthused to him about the Obama-Medvedev
Summit in Moscow. The Kremlin is "very optimistic about the
'reset'" and believes it will bear fruit because the
atmosphere between Obama and Medvedev was "remarkably
different" than between Bush and Medvedev. Sarybai said
Prikhodko had called this a "source of real optimism."


8. (C) Sarybai also averred that Russia had blindsided
Kazakhstan by announcing the establishment of a CSTO/Russian
military base in Kyrgyzstan. The Ambassador responded this
is hardly believable since Kazakhstan seems to be a member in
good standing of the CSTO, and surely Moscow must have
consulted with Astana in advance on this issue. Sarybai
maintained there had been no prior consultation, and that
Nazarbayev had been furious and demanded an explanation from
Medvedev. According to Sarybai, Medvedev told Nazarbayev not
to worry, that this is simply a Russia-Kyrgyzstan bilateral
agreement, and that Russia will only use the base to train
Kyrgyz troops. The Ambassador asked, "Do you believe that?"
Sarybai replied," In public, we accept public explanations."


9. (C) COMMENT: It seems inconceivable that Russia would
have acted in the name of the CSTO without ever having
consulted with the other members. And so it is unclear if
Sarybai was trying to spin us (which we've never seen him do
before),or if, in fact, CIS relations are even more
Byzantinely opaque than we had assumed. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND