UPDATE ON SHEIKH AWEYS AND THE HARD-LINE ARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000038 DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2019 TAGS: PREL KISL ER SO SUBJECT: UPDATE ON SHEIKH AWEYS AND THE HARD-LINE ARS Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C)) DWINDLING PRESENCE: Only about 20 members of the hard-line faction of the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS) remain in Asmara, according to Pekka Haavisto, Finland's Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, who met with the faction's representatives earlier this week. Sheikh Omar (NFI),one of Aweys' trusted lieutenants, has reportedly returned to Somalia to lead the faction in Somalia at this time of flux. Post believes Sheikh Omar may be Sheikh Omar Iman Abubakar, a former ARS central committee member. In 2006, Sheikh Omar addressed a Mogadishu crowd, stating "we will never allow a single soldier from a foreign country into our country...we will fight against them until death," according to an AFP report. ¶2. (C) MEETING WITH THE EGYPTIANS: Sheikh Hasan Dahir Aweys met with the Egyptian ambassador at the Egyptian embassy in Asmara January 29. Egyptian Ambassador Ihab Hamouda reported that Aweys remains opposed to the Djibouti accords and said foreign countries and the international community should keep hands off Somalia. Hamouda told the ambassador that "Aweys would now be very open to a discussion with the United States." Some commanders of the Aweys faction reportedly coordinate on the ground in Somalia with mainline ARS commanders. (COMMENT: When the commanders' clan or sub-clan loyalties overlap, we suspect. END COMMENT) ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Aweys, stay in Asmara may be coming to an end. We,ve heard that he,s traveled twice to Somalia in past months, but has chosen to return to Eritrea because of the unsettled security situation in his homeland. Members of his entourage chafe at Eritrean attempts to control their movements and communications. If a more Islamist-friendly security environment emerges in Mogadishu and elsewhere, Aweys is likely to seek to return. The Isaias regime may not be pleased with that prospect, as it now largely controls the faction,s public pronouncements and reportedly rakes off millions of dollars annually in &overhead8 from donations to the hard-line ARS. END COMMENT. MCMULLEN