TENSIONS IN SUDAN-ERITREA RELATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000205 SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2019 TAGS: PREL SU ER SUBJECT: TENSIONS IN SUDAN-ERITREA RELATIONS Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Relations between Sudan and Eritrea have become strained as a result of Sudan's vote to sanction Eritrea on the Somalia issue in IGAD and the AU. The Sudanese DCM said Sudan could not sacrifice its relationship with the region and the continent for the sake of Eritrea. In response, Eritrea has increased its courtship of JEM and other Darfuri rebel groups in a supposed attempt to undermine the Sudanese government. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Eritrean government (GSE) is looking at ways to undermine the Sudanese government (GOS) now that Sudan voted to sanction Eritrea in IGAD and the AU, according to Sudanese DCM Hussein Mohamed Hussein. The GSE is furious with Sudan and is seeking to strengthen its alliances with JEM and other Darfuri rebel groups. JEM's chief negotiator, Jabril Ibrahim, recently met with President Isaias and high-level GSE officials, according to Hussein. The entourage visited JEM's rebel camps in Eritrea near the Sudan border where JEM has two to three hundred troops. Hussein also stated the group talked about combining JEM's rebel forces in Eritrea with other rebel groups, such as SLM/A. Hussein feared Eritrea will seek to align members of Darfur's Arab, Fur, and Masalit groups under a Zagawa banner by uniting them with JEM. There is already possibility for Eritrea-supported attacks in Port Sudan, Hussein continued. ¶3. (C) Hussein remarked that Eritrea is largely dependent on Sudan for fuel and foodstuffs, especially since Eritrea had run out of credit with other countries in the region. He said the GOS "knows what it can do to Eritrea" based on the hardships Eritrea faced the last time Sudan closed the border. He indicated the GOS was not considering doing so as this point. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: The GOS decision to vote for sanctions against Eritrea shows there are limits to the Sudan-Eritrea relationship. If Eritrea is in fact courting JEM and seeking to undermine the GOS, it would appear the GSE is in its familiar punch-back mode and gambling strategically. The power grid and the water supply are already stressed; food is scarce and the rains are late. Should the GOS sever supply lines of fuel and food, the outcome would be catastrophic for Eritrea. MCMULLEN