ERITREA'S FLAT DENIAL AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

S E C R E T ASMARA 000187 NOFORN DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PTER PROP PARM ER SO SUBJECT: ERITREA'S FLAT DENIAL AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT REF: ASMARA 184 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d) -------------- THE FLAT DENIAL -------------- ¶1. (S/NF) Foreign Minister Osman Saleh adamantly and hotly denied Eritrean support for radical Somali Islamists June 17 as we delivered the President's letter addressed to Isaias (ref). This is the same line we've heard from numerous other Eritrean officials both in public and private. From a starting position that our information is correct, this Flat Denial means the Eritrean officials are ignorant or lying. -------------- ARE THEY IGNORANT? -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) It is possible that Eritrean support for Somali radicals is so tightly held by the Office of the President and/or the Office of National Security that only a handful of Eritrean operatives really knows what's going on. Thus, the across-the-board denials could seem sincere because the deniers aren't in the loop and truly believe it would not be in Eritrea's interest to aid AQ-affiliated radicals. -------------- ...OR LYING? -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) Eritrean officials are extremely disciplined in sticking to the regime's policy line. The revealed wisdom is repeated nearly verbatim up and down the ranks. Those who deviate from the party line are canned, often with dire results. Our interlocutors may know or suspect what's really going on but stick to the Flat Denial out of fear or conviction. The streak of Eritrean superiority that permeates the regime may lead some Eritrean officials to judge that the U.S. doesn't really know what's going on in Somalia and that they can bluff their way through this. -------------- HIGH STAKES -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) Eritrea's dangerous game is being played for high stakes; the regime's ultimate goal may be to establish an anti-Ethiopian government in Mogadishu that could eventually help dismember Ethiopia and thereby even the strategic balance between Asmara and Addis Ababa. The potential risks include regime-crippling sanctions or even direct action against Eritrea in the event of a major al-Shabaab terrorist attack in the region or beyond. Post has emphasized this latter risk to top Eritrean officials in the context of al-Shabaab's recruitment of Americans and the reported return of some of these American jihadis to the United States. And yet Isaias persists, perhaps having calculated that the potential benefits still outweigh the risks. -------------- DELUSIONAL DICTATOR -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) Isaias, in a flurry of interviews with the international media in late May, reiterated his delusional world view. For example, in a May 22 interview with VOA, Isaias said, "In our case, we would say we are the best example of democracy and freedom of expression." In the same interview he said allegations of Eritrean support for radical Somali Islamists were "absurd." He added, "We don't engage in such exercises... Tell us exactly what happened if you have evidences (sic) that everybody has to know." Recently, Isaias also denied Eritrean support to al-Shabaab in a private conversation with a long-term family friend who had just traveled from Somalia. -------------- DENIALS PLANTING SEEDS OF DOUBT -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) The Flat Denial, made more plausible by the Isaias regime's antipathy to Islamic or any other kind of politico-religious activity, has taken root in the Eritrean population and even among some foreign diplomats. A number of ambassadors accredited to Eritrea remain vocally skeptical about Eritrean support to al-Shabaab and its ilk. Should the USG and/or the international community take action against Eritrea or Eritreans for support of radical Somali Islamists, the Flat Denial will have to be punctured for any measures to be effective. If it is not, Isaias will cast himself and Eritrea in the role of innocent victim being picked on yet again by American and Ethiopian bullies. Patriotic Eritreans will rally to the flag and Isaias' shaky domestic political position will be strengthened. -------------- COUNTERING THE FLAT DENIAL -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) Given the still low (but recovering) credibility of the USG in some quarters, simple public assertions that Eritrea is aiding radical Somali Islamists will not change many minds. Post recommends that AF, S/CT, and INR work with others in the intelligence community to brief key foreign counterparts on specifics of Eritrean support for radical Somali Islamists. Previous USG attempts to do so flopped. One skeptical Western ambassador in Eritrea this week commented, "Are your claims of Eritrean support for al-Shabaab like those of Saddam's WMD program?" Perhaps recent statements by Somali factional leaders themselves, especially those who have or still do receive Eritrean support, could be the foundation of a persuasive case. Eastern European contract pilots who fly into Somalia could perhaps be persuaded to share their experiences. Associates of arrested gunrunner Victor Bout may be helpful. Eritrea's Nasair, which employs foreign crewmembers, bases an AN-76 in Bangkok and uses it for charter cargo flights in East Africa and the Middle East. Anything stemming from Ethiopian or Djiboutian accounts will be dismissed by skeptics as anti-Eritrea disinformation. Reaching the Eritrean public is probably easiest via diaspora websites like Asmarino or Assenna. Opposition-run radio and TV may also prove useful. With IGAD, the AU, and the UN all critical of Eritrea's malign role in Somalia, the time is ripe for the USG to puncture the Flat Denial - the Isaias regime's only response to this mounting condemnation. MCMULLEN