ERITREAN MILITARY "DRAINED OF PATIENCE"

S E C R E T ASMARA 000140 NOFORN DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV MOPS ER SUBJECT: ERITREAN MILITARY "DRAINED OF PATIENCE" Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (S/NF) VETERANS AND SOLDIERS REPORTEDLY FED UP: Many former fighters, both civilian and active duty veterans of Eritrea's 30-year war for independence, believe that Isaias is "destroying the country," according to a supposed senior leader of Eritrea's internal opposition (strictly protect). This individual played a prominent role in the independence war, broke with Isaias, and is now a businessman and the estranged husband of a cabinet minister. He met the ambassador at the apartment of a mutual friend April 27. These interlocutors claimed that an Eritrean general on April 24 told them the military is "drained of patience" with Isaias' disastrous governance of the country. ¶2. (S/NF) RISING ANGER: The opposition leader and his friend asserted that "things are cooking" and that it is only a matter of time before some incident causes simmering anger to boil over into open opposition to Isaias' rule. They contend that resentment is rising among former fighters who feel their sacrifices have been in vain; the accelerated collectivization of agriculture is a particular concern. For example, many Muslim former fighters were granted long narrow land concessions abutting the seasonal Gash river (Eritrea has no perennial rivers). Recently the government announced it was taking control of 750 yards of land on each side of the river for collectivized agriculture. This deprives the former fighters of access to the river for irrigation. The farmers are apparently up in arms and some local administrators have refused to carry out the order to evict them. ¶3. (S/NF) U.S. SUPPORT SOUGHT: The opposition leader said, "We need America's support." The ambassador commented that any impetus for change, to be successful, must come from within. It is folly for the Eritrean Democratic Alliance to be based in Addis Ababa, as many Eritreans, even those unhappy with Isaias, still see Ethiopia as an existential threat to Eritrea. This enables Isaias to argue that sedition equals treason. The opposition leaders said Isaias will increasingly rely on his own radical ideology as things close in on him. They see Eritrea's unimplemented constitution as the roadmap for the transition to a post-Isaias era. They commented that the military was the only institution able, and increasingly willing, to take on Isaias. They closed by forecasting, "while you are ambassador here, you will be confronted by this situation." COMMENT: Post sees widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo, but is not privy to the internal dynamics of the military. Former fighters are esteemed but not well organized. End Comment. MCMULLEN