AWEYS ON THE MOVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000103 DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019 TAGS: PREL PTER ER SO SU SUBJECT: AWEYS ON THE MOVE REF: FERNANDEZ-HUSBANDS EMAIL OF 30MAR09 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) AWEYS IN SUDAN - JUST VISITING? -------------- Hassan Dahir Aweys, a UN-listed terrorist and leader of the hard-line faction of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia, recently traveled to Sudan, according to Embassy Asmara contacts. Embassy Khartoum reports Aweys met with Bashir in Khartoum last week. Dr. Taiser Ali, the Sudanese head of the Peacebuilding Center for the Horn of Africa, says Aweys went to Khartoum to attend a summit of Arab leaders. Eritrean opposition and Somali websites alike report that Aweys escaped virtual house arrest to flee to Sudan and avoid the restrictions of the Eritrean government. ¶2. (C) THE AWEYS FACTION VIEW -------------- PolOff met March 30 with Mahad Yusuf, Inspector General of the hard-line ARS faction. According to Mahad, Sheikh Aweys is in Sudan meeting with contacts and "pushing the ARS agenda." Mahad did not mention how long Sheikh Aweys will be in Sudan, but implied that he will return to Eritrea. Mahad stated that Aweys is still in charge of the Aweys ARS faction, but said it is the general membership that sets the agenda for Aweys to then push to his Islamist constituencies. "Aweys is seeking a balance between the nationalists and the Islamists," Mahad continued. Mahad also mentioned the newly formed Hizbul Islam is not affiliated with the hardline ARS, but instead comprises Islamist members who left to follow a more radical agenda. ¶3. (C) CAN I MOVE TO CAIRO? NO -------------- The Egyptian ambassador to Eritrea revealed that Aweys in recent weeks asked to relocate with his family to Cairo, but the Egyptian government refused the request. This seems to indicate that Aweys is seeking to depart from Asmara and set up shop elsewhere. ¶4. (C) COMMENT -------------- The Isaias regime profits politically and financially from having the Aweys ARS faction in Eritrea and under its control. Whether or not Aweys has decamped to Sudan, is (or was) there temporarily to attend a conference, or is making himself available to negotiate with the Transitional Federal Government, it is apparent that his exile/sanctuary in Asmara is not permanent. Without Aweys in his pocket, Isaias cannot rake off millions in "overhead" from Islamist contributors to the Aweys ARS faction and will lose Eritrea's main client in the Somali fight. Islamist advances in southern Somalia combined by the potential departure of Aweys from Eritrea may obviate the need for an Eritrean funnel for money and arms to radical Islamist forces in Somalia. While we cannot judge whether Aweys' departure from Eritrea would be a good thing overall for Somalia, it would certainly weaken the hand of the Isaias regime in its role of spoiler in Somalia. MCMULLEN