PERSPECTIVES ON BASHIR'S VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000100 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV SU ER SUBJECT: PERSPECTIVES ON BASHIR'S VISIT ASMARA 00000100 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Melinda Tabler-Stone for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Sudanese and Sudan watchers in Asmara agree Bashir's visit was a defiant move against the ICC. The disagreement lies, however, in Bashir's leadership capabilities. While the Sudanese Embassy stuck to the party line that Bashir is on his way to fixing the Darfur crisis, the Eritrean government remained skeptical of Bashir's ability to stabilize Sudan. The Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) has chosen to remain uninvolved in internal NCP strife. Meanwhile, Eritrea's resident Darfuri groups are upset at not being included in the peace process. The Egyptian Embassy was troubled Eritrea took the lead in hosting Bashir's regional visits, claiming it should have taken a back seat to more powerful countries. End Summary. SUDAN EMBASSY TOES THE PARTY LINE -------------- ¶2. (C) Despite the ICC indictment, Bashir will move forward to address the issues in Darfur, stated a Sudanese embassy official. Part of Bashir's strategy will entail inviting more Darfuri groups to the Doha conference later this month, he continued with confidence. Although he admitted Bashir's travel to Eritrea was purely in opposition to the ICC indictment, he gave no sign that the indictment will hinder Bashir or his plans for Sudan. ERITREA - NO CONFIDENCE IN BASHIR -------------- ¶3. (C) The government of Eritrea (GSE) is united with Bashir in defying the international community, but is skeptical of Bashir's leadership, according to an embassy source who discussed the visit with Abdullah Jaber, Head of Organizational Affairs at the PFDJ. Abdullah said the GSE does not believe there is a political force that can take control of Sudan. The SPLM cannot, he continued, because it has focused on representing the South and missed its chance to become a national party. As for the Dafuri groups, the NCP uses them to divide and weaken the political opposition. The GSE is critical that the ICC indictment does not provide any incentives for Bashir to do the right thing. It also doubts Bashir has the capability or desire to actually implement Sudan's peace agreements. GOSS - RESPECTFUL ONLOOKER -------------- ¶4. (C) According to GOSS chief representative Philip Natana, the ICC indictment has fractured the already unstable NCP. Natana said Bashir thinks some in the NCP, who are equally culpable, might cut deals and sell him out. This belief is based on the fact that only Bashir was indicted. The GOSS representative said there is indeed a faction within the NCP that would like to take Sudan in a different direction. However, when members of the NCP approached the SPLM on whether or not it will stand with Bashir in the face of the indictment, the GOSS preferred to stay out of NCP internal divisions. RESIDENT DARFURI GROUPS- WHAT ABOUT US? -------------- ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, members of three of the resident Darfuri groups (United Revolutionary Force Front, Revolutionary Democratic Freedom Forces, and Sudan Federal Democratic Alliance) expressed dismay at having been left out of last year's Qatar Initiative. (We could not reach JEM or SLM). The groups complained that the GOS focused its efforts on supporting JEM as the key Darfuri movement. They also lashed out against the AU-UN chief mediator for Darfur, Djibril Bassole, who they accuse of only meeting with JEM officials. For the Darfuri groups in Asmara, indictment of President Bashir means a chance for recognition and an opportunity to step to the table as relevant factions. The groups claim they are working towards a conference that will produce a joint plan of action for Darfur. Having Bashir step down will aid in these plans gaining recognition, they continued. EGYPT TAKES UMBRAGE ASMARA 00000100 002.2 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (C) Egypt is annoyed that Eritrea took the lead on hosting Bashir, according to the Egyptian DCM. He continued that Eritrea is not a regional power like Egypt or Ethiopia, and should not attempt to make statements ahead of such countries. He also speculated (correctly) that Bashir will travel to Tripoli next, and possibly to Doha to conclude his regional tour of defiance. TABLER-STONE