KAZAKH AMBASSADOR'S VIEWS ON TURKMENISTAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000078 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KZ TX SUBJECT: KAZAKH AMBASSADOR'S VIEWS ON TURKMENISTAN'S FOREIGN POLICY Classified By: Charge Richard Miles, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a recent meeting with the Charge, Kazakhstan's Ambassador to Turkmenistan touched upon his country's improving relations with Turkmenistan, ongoing negotiations about Caspian Sea boundaries and drug trafficking routes through Central Asia. He analyzed the Turkmenistan government's unwillingness to allow transit of non-military cargo for U.S. forces in Afghanistan, explaining it as an internal decision that reflects the Turkmen extreme sensitivity about outside military engagement. Briefly discussing U.S-Kazakh relations, he viewed Kazakh engagement with the U.S. as important for the future security of his country. END SUMMARY. TURKMEN-KAZAKH RELATIONS HAVE IMPROVED ¶2. (C) On January 14, Charge met with Kazakhstan's Ambassador to Turkmenistan, Askhat Orazbay, for an exchange of views. Orazbay mentioned that within three days of his October arrival in Turkmenistan, he was able to present his credentials to President Berdimuhamedov. He said this unprecedented quick reception was a gesture meant to show the good relations between the two countries, in contrast to the state of relations under former President Niyazov. In Orazbay's opinion, Berdimuhamedov's intention is to improve the lives of Turkmen people and his plans are understandable and commendable if he succeeds. He thought it would take two or three years before one could see whether Berdimuhamedov's plans to improve Turkmenistan's image would bear fruit. HOPES FOR CASPIAN SUMMIT IN 2009 ¶3. (C) Ambassador Orazbay noted that Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have no Caspian delimitation issues. Kazakhstan and Russia agreed on a "modernized middle line" during bilateral negotiations in the Yeltsin era. He described the Caspian special working group meetings, led at the deputy foreign minister level, that include the five littoral countries. Each country's delegation at the meetings, which take place every two-three months, includes legal and international experts and representatives of relevant agencies. A Caspian summit meeting should have taken place in 2008 but was postponed because an agreement could not be finalized. Orazbay said there were plans for the summit to occur in Baku this year. The group, which deals only with the delimitation issue, works hard to reach consensus, and he noted that Iran's position of "reluctance" had improved a bit. The Kazakhs have urged an approach to delimitation similar to that used between Kazakhstan and Russia, but Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan have principled disagreements on some points. TURKMEN AVOID FOREIGN ENTANGLEMENTS ¶4. (C) Concerning the Turkmenistan government's refusal to allow the U.S. military to ship non-lethal cargo across Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Orazbay said the Turkmen are very sensitive about military matters. He did not think it was due to Russian pressure, commenting that Russian relations with Turkmenistan were "a little different" than with other CIS countries. "Russia can't use pressure with Turkmenistan (on such matters) because of Turkmenistan's gas." Orazbay noted that the Turkmen were very sensitive about involvement in multilateral matters and structures. Kazakhstan had seen this in non-military frameworks, for example, economic cooperation. When military and security issues were involved, "their fear doubles." Turkmen officials cite the country's neutral status as soon as they feel uncomfortable with or doubtful about an issue, because "it saves them from having to say the real reason." ¶5. (C) Orazbay continued that, regarding Afghanistan, it would be a sensitive issue for Turkmenistan to allow NATO to use its airspace for overflights to another country. He ASHGABAT 00000078 002 OF 002 noted that Kazakhstan also has a law that prohibits the military use of its territory by one country directed at a third country. Transit of cargo to Afghanistan required parliamentary approval, even though military equipment was not involved. Citing his former role as Kazakhstan's Coordinator for Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) matters, he recounted that China asked permission for its soldiers to transit Kazakhstan enroute to a SCO exercise in Russia. Despite heavy pressure from China - "it cost a lot" - Kazakhstan refused. Orazbay thought the refusal to allow cargo shipments to transit Turkmenistan enroute to Afghanistan was an internal Turkmen decision. He did not think Iran was a factor, noting that Iran had no strong lever with the Turkmen. TAJIKISTAN THE MAIN DRUG TRAFFICKING ROUTE ¶6. (C) On the subject of drug trafficking routes, Orazbay thought Turkmenistan was not the most active, but rather Tajikistan due to the weakness of its government and the difficulty of controlling its mountainous border. He said "everyone with a post-Soviet background" knew that Tajikistan is the main transit country because of its poverty, noting that many different categories of Tajiks are involved in order to earn money. U.S.-KAZAKH RELATIONS IMPORTANT FOR KAZAKH SECURITY ¶7. (C) According to Ambassador Orazbay, Kazakhstan needs U.S. influence to offset Russia and China. "Russia alone could do what they want, China less so." Kazakhstan appreciates its relations with the United States in the oil and gas sphere, but also the USAID programs, healthcare and education. Kazakh relations with the United States are important for Kazakh security in the future. The Kazakh political elite understands the sensitivity of relations with Russia. Its 7400 kilometer border is the longest in the world. That is why it is obligatory for Kazakhstan to have a good relationship with Russia. "We can't afford to act like Saakashvili. Kazakhstan needs balance in order to insure its independence." ¶8. (C) COMMENT: As a post-Soviet Central Asian, Orazbay had insightful views about the sensitivities of Turkmen officials and their approach to regional issues. He also distinguished between the degree of Russian influence in Kazakhstan as compared to Turkmenistan. His comments made clear the different roles that his government and the Turkmen government assign to their respective relations with the United States. END COMMENT. MILES