TURKMENISTAN: UN CENTER FOR PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000721 SIPDIS SCA/CEN; INL E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAGR SNAR UN TX AF SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: UN CENTER FOR PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY SEES ROLE FOR ITSELF IN AFGANISTAN; RESOLVING REGIONAL WATER DISPUTES Classified By: Charge Richard Miles, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The head of the UN Center for Preventive Diplomacy, Ambassador Miroslav Jenca, plans to brief UN and U.S. officials on the activities of the Center during an upcoming visit to the U.S. The Center is working on some ideas to promote stability in Afghanistan and high-level regional water resource discussions. Jenca expressed the belief that any efforts to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan must include the participation of the neighboring Central Asian states. He also said Central Asian states have demonstrated that they are more than willing to sit down and begin to work through their water resource issues, and that the Center may be the right facilitator. Any progress the UN Center might achieve on regional water issues resources could benefit other efforts to promote the development of regional economic and trade relationships. END SUMMARY. STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN ¶2. (C) On June 5, Ashgabat-based UN Center for Preventive Diplomacy Chief, Ambassador Miroslav Jenca met with Charge to brief him on Jenca's planned meetings with UN and other officials in the United States the week of June 8. He would be meeting with members of the UN Security Council to report on the Center's activities over the past six months, as well as its future plans. He said he would ask the Turkish Presidency to state the UNSC's position on efforts to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan. He indicated he would then go to Washington, DC on June 22, and will meet with Department of State officials and with members of the new administration to continue the dialogue between the Center and U.S. officials. He also mentioned that he would meet with World Bank officials during his trip, to discuss a feasibility study on hydroelectric power stations. ¶3. (C) Jenca said he would like to meet with Deputy Assistant Secretary George Krol, after he meets with U/S Bill Burns, presuming he can get on Burns' schedule. He will meet with Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, and has also asked to meet with Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy Richard Morningstar. Jenca wants to have a substantive discussion about ways to stabilize Afghanistan. The Center has been actively seeking suggestions regarding how to get the Central Asian states committed to activities that will help stabilize the country to their south. ¶4. (C) Jenca said that once the Afghan presidential election is over, he will work to organize meetings on next steps. He noted that the timing "has never been better," since several Central Asian states' representatives have approached him in recent months and asked him to facilitate a regional discussion on Afghanistan. Turkmen officials, he said, have invited the Center to organize an Afghanistan forum in the late fall in Ashgabat. The Center is also considering a suggestion that it organize "peace talks" between the various interest groups in Afghanistan, somewhere in Central Asia, he added. Jenca said it was his position that it would not be possible to work on resolving the security situation in Afghanistan without the participation of the neighboring Central Asian states. REGIONAL WATER ISSUES ¶5. (C) The Center's other primary substantive issue, on which it has focused extensively, is the effort to develop a constructive regional dialog on water resources. Jenca noted that, contrary to press reports that claimed otherwise, the April 28 meeting (International Fund to Preserve the Aral Sea, held in Almaty) on regional water issues did not end on a negative note. Although the press covered an initial session in which it appeared the Central Asian states would not be able to agree on some final agreement language, it was ASHGABAT 00000721 002 OF 002 during lunch that the group was able to discuss and agree on final document language. He said that Kazakhstan President Nazarbayev's leadership of the International Fund meeting had a positive influence on the outcome of the gathering. ¶6. (C) The Center is planning to host a forum this fall on the sharing of water resources, in Tajikistan, he said. The Center plans to invite representatives from Afghanistan as well, since Afghanistan influences regional water resource issues, he commented. He was encouraged that Tajikistan's Deputy Water Minister had shown commitment to the forum. Jenca said the Center hoped to get U.S. Government support for the water forum in Tajikistan. He anticipated that some $40,000 would be needed to conduct the forum. Jenca argued that the success of the April water meeting demonstrates the readiness of the regional states to discuss water issues. He also observed that organizing such a forum this fall in Tajikistan would be a test for the Center and for the Central Asian states' determination to resolve the issue. Jenca noted that the Central Asian states recently agreed to negotiate winter water usage soon, so the subject is of primary importance for them. PIPELINE SECURITY AND REGIONAL COUNTERNARCOTICS ¶7. (C) Turning to other subjects on which the Center is focused, Jenca said neither the UN in New York nor his Center had received any final statement text from the Turkmen Government following the April 23-24 energy security conference. He speculated that the Turkmen Government was likely preoccupied with its tiff with Russia over gas supplies. ¶8. (C) Jenca said that officials at the UNODC (UN Office on Drugs and Crime) have begun to notice that the Turkmenistan State Counternarcotics Service's efforts to battle drug flows have softened since Murat Islamov's reappointment to the State Border Service in January. On the other hand, he said, CARICC (the Central Asia Regional Information and Coordination Center) was doing a good job, including the Turkmen contribution there. CARICC, he said, had not yet issued any reports, but he had heard from UNODC representatives that CARICC had assessed that drug flows through Turkmenistan had been higher during the past year in spite of a reported drop in drug production in Afghanistan in ¶2008. CARICC is off to a good start, Jenca said, having fully entered into force this year. All the Central Asian states, but not Russia, had signed ratifying agreements on its operations. CARICC's mission is to facilitate the sharing of regional counternarcotics information, and experts from all the states have a presence in its Almaty office, he said. He said it was interesting that Turkmen counternarcotics information was successfully being shared in Almaty, although it was not available in Ashgabat. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: The UN Center for Preventive Diplomacy is only about a year and a half old, but appears to be finding traction with the issues it has chosen to pursue. The water issue is a persistent, grinding problem that hinders Central Asian states from developing healthy trade and economic relationships. Any substantive dialog the UN Center can facilitate on reasonable and cooperative water resource management would benefit other regional efforts. The UN Center budget is minimal, and it will need financial assistance to support the forum it plans for Tajikistan in the fall. END COMMENT. MILES