ONE PERSON ALLEGES TURKMENISTAN IS READY TO LOOK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASHGABAT 000627 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV EPET EU SOCI TX RU XG SUBJECT: ONE PERSON ALLEGES TURKMENISTAN IS READY TO LOOK WESTWARD FOLLOWING GAS PIPELINE EXPLOSION REF: ASHGABAT 624 Classified By: Charge Richard Miles, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) In a meeting on May 13, Europa House Co-Coordinator, Theo Hensels (please protect),said that in addition to Turkmenistan's search for political support following the gas pipeline explosion on April 9 (reftel),the Turkmens' "eyes are opened and they now have a strong will to go for diversification (of gas pipelines),whatever it takes." He thinks that the situation is "also dangerous -- by the end of the year, there could be signs of a shortage of cash and the government could be forced to implement unpopular policies." Hensels, who worked for many years in Georgia and Moscow, said that he believes -- based on his many years of experience in the former U.S.S.R. -- Russia could have the intention to destabilize the country to provoke regime change, and stated that "Putin has the intention to reestablish the Soviet Union at any cost," adding that "they want to get Turkmenistan down on its knees." Hensels noted that Russian companies are involved in construction of the new Turkmen pipelines going to China and felt that Turkmenistan could not be sure that the gas would start flowing to China at the end of the year because of potential sabotage to this pipeline. ¶2. (C) Hensels sees a role for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in supporting Turkmenistan's reforms and in offering the country financial support if the financial crisis he envisages takes place later in 2009. He sees this moment as an opportunity for Europe to try to gain time and solve the problem of alternative energy routes for Europe. ¶3. (SBU) COMMENT: Post has heard rumors quite often recently about the Turkmenistan Government's shortage of cash, but in this opaque environment this is impossible to confirm or deny. The opinions expressed above about Russia and its aims and methods of achieving them belong to one person, which some would wholeheartedly agree with. While Russia may be wary of Western influence in Turkmenistan, we doubt that it would want to see this country destabilized. END COMMENT. MILES