SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER,S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000458 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV TX SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER,S VISIT TO TURKMENISTAN Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Sylvia Reed Curran. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes your visit to Turkmenistan as a timely opportunity to advance our urgent military overflight issues, as well as to show continued support for U.S. investment in energy resource development, greater cooperation in education, and progress in human rights. The most recent high-level U.S. Government visitor was General Petraeus in early January. The Turkmen will likely press for a commitment to invite President Berdimuhamedov to the U.S. this year. END SUMMARY. INTERNAL STABILITY; EXPANDED EXTERNAL RELATIONS ¶2. (C) The global financial crisis does not appear to have had an immediate impact in Turkmenistan. The Ashgabat construction boom and announcements of other capital investment projects continue apace. Oil revenues have fallen, however, and while the Turkmen negotiated favorable prices for gas sales to Russia and Iran, the prices are not locked in over the long-term and would most likely fall in response to declines in market prices. No serious disturbances to public order have occurred since last September's Khitrovka shootout. Recently, there have been an increasing number of signs that President Berdimuhamedov may be developing his own personality cult, with increasingly ubiquitous public photographs and the recent naming of a new mosque in his honor. Still, the excesses of the Niyazov era are not being repeated. ¶3. (C) Recent trips by President Berdimuhamedov to Uzbekistan, Iran and Russia have been opportunities for the Turkmen to reaffirm their multi-directional foreign policy. He has been invited to France later this year as well as Italy. Energy is closely linked to foreign policy, with the gas pipeline to China reportedly on schedule to carry its first small shipments at the end of this year, and the recent announcement of a new gas field development project with Iran. Despite the pomp and ceremony during Berdimuhamedov's visit to Moscow, the Turkmen and Russians were not able to reach an agreement for the construction of a new gas pipeline across Turkmenistan that would link Eastern gas fields with potential export pipelines along and under the Caspian. Concerning Afghanistan, FM Meredov responded to a briefing on current U.S. policy by saying that Turkmenistan also sees the problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan as linked, and that they cannot be solved simply by military means. Meredov praised the USD 1.5 billion for social and economic aid for Pakistan. Turkmenistan donates humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, particularly in the northern part of the country, constructing schools, hospitals and other projects. Consideration by the Turkmenistan Government of the project to supply Turkmen energy to Afghanistan appears to be stuck within the bureaucracy. The latest update was on March 11, when we were informed that the Turkmen-Afghan electricity working group paper was "under consideration." OVERFLIGHT CAP AND PAYMENT ISSUES ¶4. (C) The key issue in your discussion with President Berdimuhamedov will be our need for an increase in the cap on humanitarian overflights to Afghanistan and a resolution of the Turkmenistan Government's demand for payment of overflight fees for non-humanitarian flights. The U.S. exceeded the agreed overflight cap of 1600 planes by more than 25% last year. DOD nearly has reached the cap this year and has had to discontinue overflights. Turkmenistan has banned the overflight of all USG aircraft not covered by our blanket overflight agreement until we pay overflight bills from 2007 and 2008. The U.S. Government does not pay overflight fees for state aircraft, but we may be able to resolve this issue with an "in-kind" gift of fuel trucks and air traffic control equipment. We believe this problem surfaced because of the lack of revenue to Turkmen State ASHGABAT 00000458 002 OF 003 Civil Aviation caused by the decision not to land U.S. aircraft at Ashgabat airport until the fuel pit is repaired. A fuel pit work-around started at the end of March which allowed seven aircraft to be refueled prior to the suspension after nearly eight months of inactivity. MFA also returned ten overflight requests for DoD contracted aircraft without action stating that the &issue with the payment of air navigation services must be resolved.8 HYDROCARBON SECTOR DEVELOPMENT ¶5. (C) U.S. integrated energy companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Marathon continue to express interest in working with the Turkmen to develop energy projects, but the Turkmen are showing little reciprocal interest. ConocoPhillips, which has been pursuing an offshore project and was in the final stages of opening a local office, was recently rebuffed when its representatives coming to finalize details for its office were refused letters of invitation by the authorities. The decision was reportedly made by the Cabinet of Ministers because there were no ongoing negotiations with the company, when in fact the company has been trying to get feedback on its proposal since last summer, to no avail. The other major firms are proposing onshore production projects that go against Turkmen policy of controlling onshore development itself. President Berdimuhamedov appears convinced that, given enough time, the Turkmen themselves will be able to hire the necessary technology and expertise to allow them to manage development of these resources. None of the U.S. energy companies have been able to arrange meetings for their senior officials with Berdimuhamedov. Chevron, which has opened a local office, has seen no progress. During recent meetings with Marathon officials, the Turkmen encouraged them to open an office in order to show their commitment, but Marathon expressed reluctance without some sign of traction on their proposal. CONTINUED OBSTACLES TO COOPERATION IN EDUCATION ¶6. (C) President Berdimuhamedov and his officials repeatedly emphasize that reforming the education sector has been one of their top priorities, and he has said to U.S. visitors the hardest task is to change the mentality of a people. And yet, to date, the president's (and government's) focus has been more on improving the shell than on reforming the core of the educational system. While there has been little emphasis placed up to now on retraining teachers or on modernizing the curricula, there have been some clear signs that the government may be considering curricula changes for institutions of higher education. In particular, the Minister of Education is eager to re-start a Texas A&M partnership that would reform Turkmenistan's sole business education program to American standards over the next 3-4 years, among many other USG or other Western proposals to which he has responded favorably. At lower levels, however, the system -- including some hard-core hold-outs like the infamous Nury Bayramov, the Ministry of Education's International Relations head -- continues to constrain individual initiative and block suggestions for improvements and reforms from reaching the Minister. In particular, many returned exchange participants are prevented or discouraged from returning to their places of work or study. RESPECT FOR BASIC HUMAN RIGHTS REMAINS POOR ¶7. (C) While the Turkmen have made some improvement in their treatment of minority religious groups, in general, the human rights situation remains grim. Key areas for improvement include allowing ICRC experts access to prisons, removing curbs on freedom of movement including blacklists of people barred from traveling, ending pressure on RFE/RL journalists, and allowing non-government groups freedom to operate. On the positive side, the Turkmen have undertaken or will undertake extensive redrafting of legislation such as the Law on Public Organizations and the Law on Religion, in ASHGABAT 00000458 003 OF 003 collaboration with USAID implementers who provide commentary on the shortcomings of existing laws and organize roundtables for discussion of revisions. The Institute for Democracy and Human Rights is one of the government bodies most open to and cooperative with foreign donors and serves as a clearinghouse for the many of the reform efforts in this area. WHAT WILL THE TURKMEN BE LOOKING FOR? ¶8. (C) Foreign Minister Meredov has made clear that President Berdimuhamedov would like to visit Washington this year. In light of trips during the past year to China, South Korea, Germany, Russia, among others, the lack of a U.S. trip stands out. The upcoming conference on energy transit security, which will take place in Ashgabat on April 23-24, follows up on the Turkmen-sponsored UN resolution on the same topic. A tremendous point of pride for the President, the conference will attract some high-level Russian and EU participation. At the end of March, FM Meredov stressed the importance of U.S. participation at the conference at the highest possible level. MILES