WILL TURKMENISTAN'S ENERGY EXPORTS TO TAJIKISTAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001566 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB; NEA/IR ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN COMMERCE FOR DSTARKS/EHOUSE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG PGOV PREL ZK TI TX SUBJECT: WILL TURKMENISTAN'S ENERGY EXPORTS TO TAJIKISTAN STOP? REF: ASHGABAT 469 ASHGABAT 00001566 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) Turkmenistan's electricity exports to Tajikistan might be affected by Uzbekistan's decision to withdraw from the integrated Central Asia power grid. In the winter, Turkmenistan exports electricity to Tajikistan by transiting Uzbek territory. Uzbekistan was planning to withdraw from the integrated power grid on December 1 and is reportedly disconnecting its system now. The Turkmen Government is considering an option of transporting electricity to Tajikistan through Afghan territory. ¶3. (SBU) Turkmenistan started exporting electricity to Tajikistan in November of 2007 and has exported about one billion kilowatt-hours annually since that time. The exports take place only during the winter (typically from November to April) when Tajikistan's hydroelectric power stations cannot work at their full capacity because of the lack of water in the country's rivers. Since the Uzbek grid is the only existing means of transmitting electricity from Turkmenistan to Tajikistan, the withdrawal of Uzbekistan from the integrated grid will make it impossible to export Turkmen electricity to Tajikistan this winter. Nevertheless, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan could try to convince Uzbekistan to keep the lines that run through the Uzbek territory connected, even if Uzbekistan follows through on disconnecting from the grid overall. ¶4. (SBU) The Turkmen and Tajik Governments have reportedly been looking into alternative options of transporting electricity to Tajikistan. According to Tajik media, Turkmen Minister of Energy Yazmuhammet Orazgulyev stated at a news conference, which followed the first session of the Turkmen - Tajik Intergovernmental Commission, that Turkmenistan has a plan to export electricity to Tajikistan through Afghanistan. (NOTE: Head of UN Regional Center for Preventative Diplomacy for Central Asia Miroslav Jenca recently told USAID Representative that President Rahmon also raised the issue of importing Turkmen electricity via Afghanistan. END NOTE) Orazgulyev reportedly specified that the Turkmen Government is considering a project to construct a 450-kilometer long Turkmenistan - Afghanistan transmission line with a capacity of 500 KV, which would allow Turkmen electricity to be transmitted to Tajikistan bypassing the Uzbek territory. The transmission line would be built to the town of Andhoy, and Tajikistan would need to build another line from Andhoy to Tajikistan. Orazgulyev also mentioned that the Turkmen project would require $50 million in foreign investment. (NOTE: The project to build a new transmission facility and transmission lines to the Afghan border has been long discussed as part of a plan to increase electrical exports to Afghanistan. END NOTE) ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT. Ongoing negotiations for a new 500 KV transmission line to deliver up to 300 MW power to Afghanistan have gone slowly for a variety of reasons (reftel). The proposed project involves technical, and potential financial, support for infrastructure construction in Afghanistan from USAID/Afghanistan. The Turkmen side has consistently questioned Afghanistan's ability to construct the necessary infrastructure and to pay for Turkmen power at a commercial price. This latter concern is reasonable, given Afghanistan's track record of irregular payments for existing Turkmen power exports to Herat province at a subsidized price, which have been written off in the past by Turkmenistan. Having a seasonal customer in Tajikistan for Turkmenistan's electricity ASHGABAT 00001566 002.2 OF 002 exports makes the long-discussed project to increase exports to Afghanistan potentially more viable for Turkmen side, and should be considered in light of USG strategic objectives in Afghanistan and Central Asia. END COMMENT. ECKSTROM