TURKMEN AND RUSSIAN PRESIDENTS MEET OFTEN BUT NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASHGABAT 001546

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB;
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN
COMMERCE FOR DSTARKS/EHOUSE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
TAGS: EPET ECON PGOV PREL EINV RS TX
SUBJECT: TURKMEN AND RUSSIAN PRESIDENTS MEET OFTEN BUT NO
GAS DEAL YET

REF: A. ASHGABAT 1533

B. ASHGABAT 1486

Classified By: Charge Peter Eckstrom for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Turkmen President Berdimuhamedov's one-day working
visit to Moscow on November 29 did not finalize a new gas
deal between Russia and Turkmenistan. Berdimuhamedov
officially announced his trip to Moscow two days before
arriving in the Russian capital to meet with President
Medvedev. Following the trip, on December 1, Russian
presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko announced that Medvedev
would visit Turkmenistan in the latter part of December to
attend the opening of a Russian school in Ashgabat. When the
Russian president visited Turkmenistan in September, many
thought Medvedev's planned return visit in December would be
the occasion to announce a gas deal. However, the gas
stalemate has dragged on since April with reports that both
sides have yet to agree on the volume of gas to be delivered.
As a result, many still doubt the two sides will reach a gas
deal by the end of 2009 (ref A).


2. (SBU) Turkmen press reports indicated that Berdimuhamedov
flew via helicopter from Moscow to Medvedev's countryside
residence in Zavidovo on November 29. According to Turkmen
newspaper reports, the two leaders focused on promoting
cooperation between the two countries in the commercial and
economic spheres, as well as joint projects in the energy,
transportation, education, and cultural sectors. They also
reportedly stressed the importance of diversifying trade
between the two countries, while increasing supplies of
high-tech goods and processed products. The Turkmen media
did not reveal any details regarding presidential discussions
related to energy, however.


3. (C) Before the last-minute trip to Moscow, Berdimuhamedov
did meet with Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor
Zubkov on November 26 in Ashgabat, reportedly to work out the
logistics of Berdimuhamedov's quick trip to Moscow which took
place three days later. Political Counselor at the Russian
Embassy in Ashgabat Leonid Sklyarov told Charge that the
purpose of Berdimuhamedov's last-minute, working visit to
Moscow was for the two presidents to metaphorically
"synchronize their watches" on a range of issues, including
trade and agriculture, as well as gas purchases. He added
that Medvedev would travel to Ashgabat during the last 10
days of December, but did not elaborate on any possible
deliverables for the trip. Russian web-based newsites and
some websites on Turkmenistan, hosted outside of the country,
continue to report that Russia and Turkmenistan are still far
from reaching an agreement on the gas trade issue. Turkmen
government officials responsible for oil and gas have
recently told us that negotiations are on-going and the
quantity of gas to be purchased remains the major sticking
point (ref B).


4. (C) COMMENT: Berdimuhamedov's last-minute trip to Moscow
appeared to be focused on laying the ground work for future
bilateral cooperation during Medvedev's next trip to Ashgabat
in December. Despite frequent face-to-face visits between
the two presidents, it appears that both sides are still at
loggerheads regarding gas. During the process of hammering
out an agreement on quantity and price, it seems both
presidents want to be seen meeting each other. However,
their current deliverables are merely references to "future
cooperation in many spheres, in addition to energy," and even
a concrete deliverable as unrelated to energy as the opening
of the Russian school appears in play. END COMMENT.
ECKSTROM