TURKMENISTAN: UN REGIONAL CENTER OUTLINES MOST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001485 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2019 TAGS: ENRG PBTS PREL OSCE UN AF TX ZK SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: UN REGIONAL CENTER OUTLINES MOST PRESSING CENTRAL ASIAN ISSUES Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Sylvia Reed Curran. Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During a meeting in Ashgabat with SCA Deputy Assistant Secretary George Krol, the Head of the United Nations Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy, Ambassador Miroslav Jenca, talked about electricity and water resource problems, the conflict in Afghanistan, and border security. The Center hopes to open satellite offices in Dushanbe, Bishkek, Almaty, and Tashkent. If UNGA supports and funds that effort, the Center might be able to gain the same kind of relationship with the other Central Asian countries that they have with Turkmenistan, giving the Center more leverage to convince the Central Asian countries to cooperate on finding solutions to long-standing regional problems. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) DAS Krol met with Special Representative for the United Nations Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA) Miroslav Jenca on November 17 to get an update on regional water/electricity issues, as well as the Center's other activities. Ambassador Jenca began by commenting that despite the rumors about Foreign Minister Meredov being out-of-favor with President Berdimuhamedov, Meredov was a very knowledgeable man, had done much for the president, and was known for his good judgment and sound knowledge of international relations. Jenca then transitioned to regional water issues. At a USAID-supported Center event in Dushanbe at the beginning of November, Tajik Foreign Minister Zarifi then sounded comfortable with Uzbekistan pulling out of the regional electricity network, although that would impede transit of Turkmen energy through Uzbekistan to Tajikistan. Despite the Uzbeks insisting that they were cutting off the transit merely because Tajikistan was not paying its debts, Jenca believed politics were also involved. He said that the Uzbekistan Government wanted to prevent the construction of the Rogun hydropower project in Tajikistan. ¶3. (C) Ambassador Jenca mentioned that all countries in the region were concerned about a possible conflict between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over water. He did not think it would turn into a hot war, because the countries talk to each other, and their presidents meet at multilateral fora usually to resolve the issues before they get too hot. However, he commented that Tajikistan would need to pay something to Uzbekistan, even if it was not the full amount of their debt. Several proposals were on the table about fora in which to negotiate a possible solution. The International Water Commission, currently based in Tashkent, could be moved to Dushanbe and could serve this role. There has also been a proposal to have the UN moderate the dispute, which he claimed Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan fully support, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan are not against. Uzbekistan, on the other hand, is opposed. Uzbekistan maintains that the electricity and water problems between it and Tajikistan are bilateral issues. Jenca asserted that Kyrgyzstan, in contrast to Tajikistan, has been more pragmatic in addressing its energy issues and has even listened to suggestions to build some small and medium-sized power stations to alleviate its chronic electricity shortages. Jenca noted the Tajiks have proposed building a electricity line from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, instead of Uzbekistan to Tajikistan. However, as the transit routes would only be needed for two or three months in the winter, Jenca thought this project would not be a viable investment. WORRIES ABOUT AFGHANISTAN ¶4. (C) Ambassador Jenca said President Berdimuhamedov suggested that UNRCCA get more involved in helping to find a ASHGABAT 00001485 002 OF 002 solution to the conflict in Afghanistan, but Jenca added that it was not clear whether that was within the Center's mandate or whether the Security Council would need to approve. He said that many of the Central Asian countries think Karzai is weak. Uzbekistan President Karimov even suggested that northern Afghanistan should be split off into a separate country. Karimov also mentions his 6 3 Initiative while Kyrgyzstan continues to flog its Bishkek Initiative. Jenca said that Central Asian countries are not as worried about the Taliban. Even Tajikistan is convinced that the Taliban are not interested in moving into its territory. However, they are all worried about narco-trafficking, drug use, and extremism from groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizb ut-Tahrir entering their countries. Jenca added that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are also worried that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are unable to keep armed groups from transiting their countries. KAZAKHSTAN AND THE OSCE CHAIRMANSHIP ¶5. (C) Ambassador Jenca said that Kazakhstan is looking for ideas to make their OSCE chairmanship "memorable." He added that Astana has not yet found a theme, but has suggested a focus on border security. Jenca noted Kazakhstan supports the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the proposal to establish a Rapid Reaction Force as a means of securing Central Asian borders. Uzbekistan, on the other hand, does not want a CSTO base on its border as the Russia has proposed to establish in Kyrgyzstan. Jenca commented that Kazakhstan needs to be careful to not alienate Uzbekistan by pushing too hard its leadership role in Central Asia. EXPANDING THE UNRCCA ¶6. (C) Ambassador Jenca mentioned that he was going to New York in mid-December or January to ask for budget approval for four new Positions to be established in each Central Asian capital. He asked for U.S. support for his request. He said that the UNRCCA's mandate is to monitor and analyze the situation in Central Asia, which it cannot do without regional offices to liaise with the local governments, organize events, or report on the context of current events. He claimed the foreign ministers in each country were supportive. He also said that although UNDP has offices in every capital, their mission is focused on development only, and they hesitate to get involved in politics. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Ambassador Jenca has been in Central Asia long enough to understand the complexity of regional issues. He is fighting an uphill battle to get all of the countries to cooperate enough to find any common solutions. However, if the UNRCCA could open offices in the other Central Asian countries, it might be better positioned to convince these countries to cooperate on some of their problems. END COMMENT. ¶8. (U) DAS Krol cleared this cable. CURRA