TURKMENISTAN: BACKING OFF ON THE CASPIAN BOUNDARY DISPUTE?

UNCLAS ASHGABAT 001273 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB; NEA/IR ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN COMMERCE FOR EHOUSE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PBTS PREL EPET PGOV EINV AJ TX SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: BACKING OFF ON THE CASPIAN BOUNDARY DISPUTE? REF: A) ASHGABAT 1265; B) ASHGABAT 947 ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) A number of international media outlets have recently cited President Berdimuhamedov's remarks regarding Turkmenistan's Caspian dispute with Azerbaijan, made during his October 1 press conference (Ref A). According to the international media, Berdimuhamedov said that "...we will continue to conduct diplomatic dialogue. But if the parties fail to reach some compromise, then we will seek arbitration..." Many international media interpreted this statement as an indication of Turkmenistan's readiness to soften its stance on the boundary issue, especially compared to Berdimuhamedov's July 24 statement on Turkmenistan's intention to take Azerbaijan to an international arbitration court (Ref B). ¶3. (SBU) Turkmen national television broadcast a recording of the press conference on the evening of October 1, and Turkmen newspapers published a transcript of the event the following day. In these local media reports, there was no mention of Berdimuhamedov's "diplomatic dialogue" remark. This inconsistency between the international and local media accounts of the president's remarks is either the result of an incorrect translation (Berdimuhamedov answered all questions in Turkmen) or, more likely, the result of government instructions to omit this part of the president's remarks. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: If Berdimuhamedov actually expressed willingness to continue negotiations with the Azeris and the remark was deleted on instructions from the government, it suggests that the message was intended only for an international audience. In essence, the Turkmen government sent a signal to the Azeris that a diplomatic solution is still an option. The softer approach might also indicate that the Turkmen government realizes that the harsh rhetoric on this issue (Ref B) has not had the desired effect of persuading either Azerbaijan or the international community to step up efforts to resolve the dispute. As for the edited version of the president's remarks, tailored for internal consumption, it might have been done to prevent an impression among the public that the Turkmen government is backing off on the Caspian dispute with Azerbaijan. END COMMENT. CURRAN