TURKMEN ELECTRICITY EXPORTS TO SIBERIA?

UNCLAS ASHGABAT 001205 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB; NEA/IR ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN COMMERCE FOR EHOUSE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EPET ENRG PGOV EINV TX SUBJECT: TURKMEN ELECTRICITY EXPORTS TO SIBERIA? ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) International press reported recently that Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov stated that Turkmenistan is ready to supply electricity to Siberia to supplement electricity losses caused by the August 17 accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya power station. Berdimuhamedov's statement reportedly came during his meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on September 13, ¶2009. Press reports did not mention if the Presidents discussed specific volumes of Turkmen electricity supplies. ¶3. (SBU) According to a former employee of the Turkmen Ministry of Energy, the total capacity of Turkmenistan's eight power stations is about 3,300 mega watts (MW),which means that Turkmenistan is technically capable of producing about 20.5 billion kilowatt-hours annually. The country's internal estimated consumption for 2009 is 13 billion kilowatt-hours. In addition, the Turkmen government plans to export 2.6 billion kilowatt-hours to Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, and Tajikistan by the end of 2009. ¶4. (SBU) At face value, Turkmenistan will have some excess electricity that it could transport to Russia through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, since the power grids of all former Soviet Republics remain connected. Nevertheless, energy experts maintain that it is not possible to transmit electricity from Turkmenistan all the way to Siberia because of inevitable power losses related to long-distance electricity transmission. Moreover, experts assert that the capacity of Uzbekistan's transmission lines is most likely insufficient for the transmission of large volumes of electricity. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: The Turkmen proposal to send electricity supplies to Siberia was portrayed as evidence that strained Turkmen-Russian relations over gas are on the mend. At the same time, the probability that Siberia will ever receive Turkmen electricity is technically unlikely. The Russians will most likely cover any electricity deficit caused by the accident via their own electricity generation reserves and by importing additional volumes of electricity from Kazakhstan. Although both Presidents hailed the idea of Turkmen electricity to Siberia, neither President has yet to announce that Turkmen gas definitely will be heading to Russia. END COMMENT. CURRAN