IMPLICATIONS OF AFGHAN ELECTIONS FOR TURKMENISTAN

S E C R E T ASHGABAT 001044 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN; S/SRAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV AF TX SUBJECT: IMPLICATIONS OF AFGHAN ELECTIONS FOR TURKMENISTAN REF: STATE 85136 Classified By: Charge Richard Miles, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) On August 18, Post delivered reftel points on U.S. concerns regarding post-election instability in Afghanistan to the Turkmenistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Post will report any substantive response septel. ¶2. (S) The strategic interest of the Turkmen Government in Afghanistan is the establishment of peace and stability in that country. In addition to Turkmenistan's stated policy of permanent neutrality, the Turkmen Government has managed to peacefully co-exist with the various Afghan governments since Turkmenistan's independence in 1991. Nonetheless, the problem of drug trafficking sourced out of Afghanistan and the potential threats to stability posed by a flood of Afghan refugees and/or the export of religious extremism are genuine concerns for the Turkmen. ¶3. (S) Turkmenistan adheres to a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. While Turkmen officials have referred to the goodwill that Turkmen humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan has generated, such assistance has been directed largely to areas inhabited by ethnic Turkmen. It is not clear what, if any, influence the Turkmen Government could exert in an effort to manage the aftermath of the elections. It is likely they would remain publicly and privately silent concerning any post-elections developments in Afghanistan. MILES