ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (27-NOV-2009)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000818 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS DOC FOR RTELCHIN TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN LONDON FOR PETER LORD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV MA SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (27-NOV-2009) REF: 09 ANTANANARIVO 804, 09 ANTANANARIVO 791, 09 ANTANANARIVO 812 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update for November 16-27, an unclassified review of major political, economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S. Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros. POLITICS (Paragraphs 2-8) - AU/UN Evaluation Mission - Continued Blockage on Transition Cabinet - International Community Engages, Slowly - Rajoelina's Hardliners Refuse Compromise - Political Prisoners Still in Limbo - Human Rights Working Group Focuses on Elections ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 9-10) - Madagascar Down in Transparency International Ratings - Civil Society Seeks to Stop Illegal Wood Exports COMOROS (Paragraphs 11-12) - Self-Help Signing Ceremony - New Airline Connection to Moroni END SUMMARY -------------- POLITICS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) AU/UN EVALUATION MISSION: An AU/UN/OIF assessment team briefed the local international contact group (ICG) on its Nov 25-27 mission to Madagascar on Nov 27. Following meetings with transition President Rajoelina, PM Mangalaza, Co-Presidents Andrianirina and Rakotovahiny, and National Reconciliation Council President Zafy, the team asserted that an agreement on seven disputed cabinet positions (see paragraph 3) was possible soon, and that SADC mediator President Chissano may arrive Nov 30 to facilitate an agreement. The DCM and the French Ambassador noted the need for speed to safeguard AGOA and EU benefits. The World Bank Resrep added that USD 64 million in education funds also hang in the balance. ¶3. (SBU) During its meetings, the evaluation team urged the Malagasy leaders to name the members of the other transition institutions, as well, and define clear working procedures for the presidential council. They explained that a permanent AU/UN/SADC/OIF follow-up mechanism, which would coordinate closely with the ICG, would be installed in early December to ensure day-to-day oversight of the implementation of the Maputo Accords, as well as address long-term structural governance problems. The joint AU/UN mission was a welcome sign of improved coordination between those entities. ¶4. (SBU) CONTINUED BLOCKAGE ON TRANSITION CABINET: After failing to form a transition government by the self-imposed deadline of November 21, the four movements started the week with talk of yet another summit abroad. With the deadline drawing near on AGOA, and little patience anywhere for further delays to the electoral calendar, this proposal was poorly received. Several members of the contact group met on November 24 with the top four transition leaders to implore them to solve this blockage in-country, and quickly (ref C). ¶5. (SBU) INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ENGAGES, SLOWLY: Preparing for the day when a transition government finally takes shape, the international community has been cautiously taking steps to re-engage (ref B) after nine months of the silent treatment. With the top four positions now equitably shared among the four movements, the P-5 and other ambassadors have begun making courtesy calls in hopes of encouraging further progress. Concurrent missions from the UN, the Francophonie, and the Indian Ocean Commission conducted an assessment November 16 to 20 of electoral capacity, and plan to join forces on further engagement through a "coordination cell" to be set up at the UNDP in Antananarivo (ref B). ¶6. (SBU) RAJOELINA'S HARDLINERS REFUSE COMPROMISE: Hardliner factions among supporters of Rajoelina are opposing any moves by Rajoelina to accept further negotiation or compromise in the transition power-sharing agreement. The KMDT (Committee to Protect Democracy and the Transition) has threatened to call people back in the street if no solution is found this week; they even stated that no entity leader - not even Rajoelina - will be allowed back in ANTANANARI 00000818 002 OF 003 Madagascar if they hold another summit abroad. Per the KMDT, accepting compromise and more negotiation will mean ignoring the 2009 "struggle" and the deaths (from January to March) of Rajoelina supporters. The extent of the KMDT's support should not be overestimated, but the movement has gotten considerable media attention. ¶7. (SBU) POLITICAL PRISONERS STILL IN LIMBO: Despite recent political agreements, three high-profile prisoners are still in custody. Parliamentarian and former TIM Spokesperson Raharinaivo Andrianantoandro was granted bail after his recent hunger strike, but has decided to remain in custody and hospitalized until his early-December trial, in solidarity with his fellow prisoners. The court of appeals has again denied bail, without explanation, to the High Constitutional Court's former security chief Ralitera Andrianandraina after seven months of detention. Rabemananjara Lalaharinoro, lawyer to Manandafy Rakotonirina, has spent almost five months in jail despite her reportedly precarious health status; her daughter asserts that the August 2009 Maputo accords should have provided for her release. ¶8. (U) HUMAN RIGHTS WORKING GROUP FOCUSES ON ELECTIONS: The Embassy's popular Human Rights Working Group focused this month on the right to participate in one's government. Guest speakers from the UNDP, local election monitoring organization KMF/CNOE, and law professor and human rights activist Heri Raoera Chandoutis focused on lessons from the last round of elections, and issues that must be addressed in preparation for the next series. Around 60 members of civil society were in attendance. -------------- ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL -------------- ¶9. (SBU) MADAGASCAR DOWN IN TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL RATINGS: Madagascar dropped 14 places in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index (CPI) in 2009, ranking 99 out of the 180 countries included in the study. Its score of 3.0 (with 10 representing no corruption) bucks a three-year trend of continual (if marginal) improvement since 2006, and puts it even with Senegal, Zambia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. As the index is based on data from both 2008 and 2009, the 2009 political crisis may not account for all of the loss, but there is little question that corruption has worsened since the March 2009 coup. ¶10. (SBU) CIVIL SOCIETY SEEKS TO STOP ILLEGAL WOOD EXPORTS: On November 16, Alliance Voahary Gasy (Alliance for Malagasy Nature) filed suit against the ministries of Environment and Forests, Commerce, and Finance to repeal inter-ministerial order no. 38 244/2009, which allows for the exportation of non-processed precious woods from September 21 through November 30, 2009. The Alliance contends that the order violates the constitution and existing law; the export of unprocessed precious woods has been illegal in Madagascar since 2002. According to a GTZ-funded report, 1,211 containers of precious wood have left Madagascar since February 2009, a process which has caused environmental degradation, intimidation of civil servants, money laundering and a loss of biodiversity. While civil society is generally weak in Madagascar, the emergence of a strong environmental voice and this new alliance is an encouraging development; many of these organizations have benefitted from USG assistance in the past. -------------- COMOROS -------------- ¶11. (U) SELF-HELP SIGNING CEREMONY: During two Special Self-Help signing ceremonies this past weekend in the Comoros, USD 60,000 was obligated to fund 11 small development projects. Four of these projects are from beneficiaries on Grande Comore, six are from Anjouan, and one is from Moheli. These projects will focus on clean water and sanitation, agriculture, education, and income generation. ¶12. (U) NEW AIRLINE CONNECTION TO MORONI: A Kenyan private airline, African Express, has begun flights linking the Comoran capital, Moroni, to the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. The flights will operate twice weekly, and will stop each way in Mombasa, Kenya's second city. ANTANANARI 00000818 003 OF 003 MARQUARDT