MADAGASCAR: ELECTIONS FEASIBLE IN 2010, PENDING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000804 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN LONDON FOR PETER LORD STATE PLEASE PASS USTR FOR WJACKSON AND CHAMILTON AID/AFR FOR AMARCUS, JMEADOWS AID/DCHA CADAMCZYK DOC FOR RTELCHIN TREAS FOR FBOYE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MA SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: ELECTIONS FEASIBLE IN 2010, PENDING POLITICAL PROGRESS REF: A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 791 ¶B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 767 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Concurrent missions from the UN, the Francophonie (OIF),and the Indian Ocean Commission (COI) conducted a brief evaluation from November 16 to 20 of Madagascar's legal and institutional capacity to hold elections in 2010. The three organizations shared their preliminary conclusions with the diplomatic community on November 20; despite a lengthy list of challenges for the still-unformed transition government, they were optimistic that the international community could play a useful role, and plan to create a joint "coordination cell" within the UNDP for that purpose. The representatives refrained from commenting publicly on an election timetable, but noted privately that the planned referendum on a revised constitution was unlikely to take place before April 2010, with presidential and legislative elections to follow several months later. At present, further action is blocked by the lack of a transition government, but once Madagascar has passed that hurdle, several diplomatic missions are prepared to engage, mostly via the UNDP, with substantial financial and technical resources. END SUMMARY. A SHIFTING ELECTION TIMETABLE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Following recent progress in Addis Ababa (ref B), some in the embryonic transition government have spent the last two weeks raising hopes that the transition would conclude by June 26 - the symbolically important 50th anniversary of independence from France in 1960. At present, this looks unlikely; the transition government will be faced with significant institutional and logistical challenges (paras 3 to 6),not the least of which is Madagascar's cyclone season, which extends from January to April. According to Tadjoudine Ali Diabacte, Deputy Director of the UN Electoral Assistance Division, the UN will not be in a position to assist if there's not at least a four-month lead time to the first event, whether it's a referendum or the presidential election. Given that several diplomatic missions, including France, Norway, South Africa, the E.U., and the U.S. intend to funnel the bulk of their assistance through the UNDP coordination cell, this effectively blocks outside assistance for events prior to March at best. Although neither Diabacte nor the representatives from the OIF or the COI would comment specifically on timeframes in public, Diabacte commented privately to the Ambassador on November 17 that a more realistic timetable would put the referendum in May or June, to be followed later by presidential and legislative elections. CHALLENGES FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) There are several key steps between the formation of the transition government and the creation of the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI),each of which could further delay GOM preparations and international assistance. Once the government is in place, the National Reconciliation Council (CNR, called for in the August 9 Charter) is charged with organizing a series of regional and national conferences to debate changes to the current constitution, which will form the basis of the planned referendum. These may include debate on age limits (to allow Rajoelina, currently 5 years shy of the constitutional minimum of 40, to participate),the balance of power between the presidency and the prime minister, the structure and autonomy of Madagascar's constituent territorial divisions, and the independence of the judiciary. (Note: CRN President Albert Zafy told Emboffs privately that the consitutional age limit was unlikely to be lowered during this process. End note.) At the first such ANTANANARI 00000804 002 OF 002 national conference, the CNR will design and launch the CENI, at which point it will take over from the current National Electoral Council (CNE) within the Ministry of the Interior. ¶4. (SBU) The Charter leaves most of the details of the CENI up to the conference. It is unclear whether it will completely take over the manpower and resources to organize and conduct elections or be limited to a supervisory capacity over the pre-existing bureaucracy. Its size, composition, and budget are still to be determined, including whether the political movements will be able to control nominations, or if they'll seek to fill it with "neutral" functionaries. All parties agree that it must be formed as soon as possible - but may still have significantly different visions of its ultimate shape. ¶5. (SBU) The UN, OIF, and COI missions identified several challenges that the CENI will face once it's established. The UNDP has long advocated for a switch to a single ballot, to replace the current multiple ballot system; while this switch will require significant voter education and carries with it no guarantee that it won't be manipulated, it is generally considered cheaper, easier to administer equitably, and less prone to vote buying. There is also much work to be done on the voter registration list, thought to be extremely inaccurate despite efforts to computerize the system for the 2006 vote. Madagascar has not had a census since the 1990s, and voter registration efforts in recent years have been uneven and contentious; the UNDP estimates that there may be up to three million eligible voters not on the list, although facts concerning population and age distribution are scarce. ¶6. (SBU) Finally, there is recognition at all levels that extensive voter education and media training programs will be necessary, whether for managing the transition to a single ballot, ensuring that opposition candidates have access to the airwaves, or explaining the stakes of the constitutional referendum. There are numerous civil society organizations and international organizations that intend to engage in this aspect of the election process, once the transition government has formed. These needs are not new; former president Ravalomanana recognized publicly the need for reform, but declined to act. The CENI itself is specifically mandated in the Maputo Charter to ensure that these issues are addressed, although it is not necessarily required to finance or conduct them itself. LINING UP TO HELP - BUT OUR HANDS ARE STILL TIED -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: This visit marks an important step forward in international engagement, but no further progress can be made until the transition government has been formed. Diabacte, in his closing remarks on November 20, made clear that the UN cannot move faster than Madagascar's political leadership in addressing these needs, but the international community is doing all it can to be ready once the government finally takes shape. The final electoral calendar will be a compromise between the universal desire to hold elections as soon as possible, and a sober analysis of the system's flaws which contributed to crises in both 2002 and 2009. Elections are feasible in 2010, but only if further progress is quickly made to implement the Maputo Charter. While the US mission and other partners will continue to push the transition authorities to move as quickly as possible, and all parties profess their desire to stay on schedule, the Charter gives them until November 2010 for the final round of voting. END COMMENT. MARQUARDT