WHAT'S NEXT IN MADAGASCAR'S POLITICAL CRISIS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000070 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2019 TAGS: MA PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: WHAT'S NEXT IN MADAGASCAR'S POLITICAL CRISIS? REF: ANTAN 69 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Niels Marquardt for reasons 1.4b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary. Following Mayor TGV's Saturday's declaration that he is now "in charge of Madagascar's public affairs" and his call for Ravalomanana's impeachment, it is very unclear what comes next. The Mayor is rumored to be on the verge of naming his own government and asking the crowd to take physical control of ministries, perhaps even today. This would be incendiary and remove any remaining ambiguity from the currently murky situation: it would then have become a clear coup d'etat attempt and we and other nations would have to denounce it publicly as such. We local diplomats are seeking, again, to encourage TGV to walk back from this brink; according to one message I received, TGV woke up soberly (if very belatedly) on Sunday, asking himself how to get out of the current situation. He may therefore be more open today than he has been to alternate scenarios. Ravalomanana insiders tell us that the President is now truly opening his eyes to the changed political landscape and the need for new approaches and that he may/may be open to another meeting attempt (if TGV throws no more political firebombs in the meantime). The military say they are staying neutral, intent on maintaining order and preventing more looting and violence. Ravalomanana has dispatched both his Prime and Foreign Ministers to Addis in a (vain?) attempt to salvage prospects for the June-July AU Summit here; the absence from Tana at this moment of the only two (retired) Generals in his entire government suggests the President may be unsure of his command over the "neutral" forces. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Both TGV and the President may have woken up with hangovers yesterday after Saturday's unsettling events here. The Mayor publicly declared himself "in charge of Madagascar's public affairs" (very close to declaring a coup but perhaps not quite crossing that line) and called for the President's impeachment (constitutional but difficult, as the Parliament is not back in session until May). Nonetheless, calling for his impeachment implicitly recognized Ravalomanana as President and TGV did not explicitly declare himself to be President; there may be, therefore, some wiggle room before the government here has no choice but to respond, probably forcefully, to an outright coup attempt. Ravalomana, for his part, told his cabinet on Saturday that he would not be open to dialogue with the Mayor after his declaration, and made public statements implying that "everything is back to normal in Madagascar." He sent his Foreign Minister to Addis on Sunday, and a special aircraft took the Prime Minister there on Sunday. Both are respected retired generals who could play a decisive role in terms of swaying the military one way or the other, and the President's dispatching them both to the same meeting appears to be less about Addis and more about local control of the military. The President appeared to have been particularly vexed at FM Ranjeva before his departure for having suggested that a return to the status quo ante would not be wise or possible. ¶3. (C) Ambassadors met on Sunday evening for over one hour with Acting Foreign Minister Harison Randriaramanana, who was unusually frank. Despite the President's public declarations (and behavior),Harison said that the President now actually realizes that the political landscape has changed dramatically, is open to suggestions and advice, and is planning a major cabinet reshuffle -- perhaps bringing in foes and opposition leaders to replace the obediant line-up of "Tiko Boys" and other Ravalomanana creations that now fill it. Afterwards I coordinated with French Charge Marie-Claire Girardin. Particularly liked by the President, she is willing to approach him informally to make the same suggestions he rejected in a formal meeting with us on Thursday (reftel),and thinks he might be in listening mode if such a meeting occurs. Economics Minister Ivohasina Razafimahefa confirmed the same open disposition to me in a telcon immediately afterwards. Girardin and I agreed to meet jointly with the Mayor, if he so agrees, to hear him out one more time and see if there is any room for dialogue -- and also to implore him one more time not to cross the line into an unambiguously extra-constitutional situation that could only be condemned by international partners. MARQUARDT