MADAGASCAR'S OPPOSITION: UNITING AGAINST A COMMON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000659 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/EPS AND AF/E - MBEYZEROV TREASURY FOR FBOYE PARIS FOR WBAIN LONDON FOR PLORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV MA SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR'S OPPOSITION: UNITING AGAINST A COMMON ENEMY REF: ANTANANARIVO 654 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF DOVIE HOLLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) Summary: The heads of Madagascar's main three political opposition delegations jointly told the Ambassador September 14 that they had decided to work together after de facto transition president "TGV" Rajoelina spurned their calls for relaunching negotiations three times. They explained that the three movements had given TGV until September 20 to relaunch negotiations, which was their first choice of action for solving the current impasse. If he refused, they planned to put pressure on him by mobilizing supporters in the provinces, whom they would then invite to the capital for a mass demonstration. If all else failed, they would consider naming a parallel government, but were concerned about a potential negative reaction of the international community to that move, which would go against the spirit of the Maputo agreements. End summary. ¶2. (C) The heads of Madagascar's main three political opposition delegations, in a new show of unity, jointly told the Ambassador September 14 that they had decided to work together after de facto transition president "TGV" Rajoelina spurned their calls for relaunching negotiations three times. The final straw that pushed the alliance of former foes into being was TGV's refusal to meet with them September 13, even though he had accepted the meeting in writing on September ¶10. They were even locked out of meeting in the Senate building among themselves, purportedly under orders from TGV himself, and instead had to meet in a local hotel. Following that final rebuff, the other three movements decided to band together to pressure TGV, whom they (correctly) allege is not respecting the agreements they reached in Maputo and is increasingly losing credibility as a negotiator (reftel). The three delegation leaders, Emmanuel Rakotovahiny (Zafy's movement),Ange Andrianarisoa (Ratsiraka's group),and Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina (Ravalomanana's representative), are currently making the rounds with members of the International Contact Group to request their support in encouraging TGV to return to negotiations and respect the Maputo agreements, including the release of additional political prisoners. ¶3. (C) Andrianarisoa urged the international community to apply greater sanctions to the illegal transition government (HAT),and Rakotovahiny expressed concern about the attendance of a HAT delegation, including foreign minister Ny Hasina, at the UN General Assembly meetings in New York. The Ambassador explained that the USG position had not changed -- we continue to encourage a return to negotiations to agree on a consensual transition government, do not recognize the HAT, and do not believe that the "new" government announced unilaterally by the HAT September 8, in which both Rajoelina and prime minister Monja Roindefo retained their positions, was consensual. ¶4. (C) Andrianirina complained that peaceful Ravalomanana supporters were mistreated by law enforcement during recent protests, with 12 seriously injured. He said that Senator Naike Eliane was apprehended on September 12 and detained for 48 hours without access to a lawyer. During that time, she was beaten, "strangled," and robbed of her jewelry. She is still being held on charges of destruction of public property. (The French are displaying an unusually high level of concern about her case, probably because she is thought to be a dual national.) ¶5. (C) Rakotovahiny explained that the three movements had given TGV until September 20 to relaunch negotiations, which was their first choice of action for solving the current impasse. If he refused, they planned to put additional pressure on him by mobilizing supporters in the provinces, whom they would then invite to the capital for a mass demonstration. The press reported on September 15 that Zafy has already travelled to the main port city in the East, Tamatave, to mobilize supporters there and that the opposition leaders had announced the beginning of demonstrations beginning September 16. If such measures were insufficient, they would consider naming a parallel ANTANANARI 00000659 002 OF 002 government, said Rakotovahiny. They consider the four movements to be on equal footing following the September 9 deadline of the Maputo charter for putting a consensus government in place, so argue that if TGV can name a government, they should be able to do so as well. Andrianarisoa noted that this option was a last resort, as they had been warned by the international community that unilateral action, from any side, was unacceptable. ¶6. (C) Comment: Although the "marriage of convenience" between Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana supporters is based on mutual interest rather than shared ideology, the flexibility shown by these Malagasy politicians in overcoming seven years of bad blood to work together gives hope that a consensual solution among the four political rivals is still possible, even if increasingly unlikely. If the opposition can manage to garner substantial popular (or military) support, they may be able to haul TGV back to the negotiating table; if that fails, they will be forced to rely on any pressure that the international community can bring to bear. Although the public sentiment seems to be turning away from Rajoelina, it is still unclear if the population, mainly (and increasingly) concerned about daily survival, will be driven to action. End comment. MARQUARDT