MADAGASCAR: NEW TRANSITION GOVERNMENT FAR FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000634 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/EPS AND AF/E - MBEYZEROV TREASURY FOR FBOYE PARIS FOR WBAIN AND RKANEDA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MA SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: NEW TRANSITION GOVERNMENT FAR FROM CONSENSUAL REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 633 ¶B. ANTANANARIVO 630 ¶C. ANTANANARIVO 523 Classified By: P/E CHIEF DOVIE HOLLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) Summary: High Transitional Authority (HAT) Prime Minister Roindefo Monja today announced the composition of Madagascar's "new and consensual" transition government, confirming suspicions that the majority of positions would remain safely in the hands of HAT loyalists (para 6). Their effort to co-opt outsiders from the three other movements appears largely to have failed, with only three of the 33 nominees immediately identifiable as non-HAT politicians. This in itself is unlikely to trigger any immediate violent reaction, although ongoing non-violent protests are gaining additional participants daily. The other movements now will proceed with the nomination of a "shadow cabinet" in protest of the HAT's move. The military has not made any statements since their recent rejection of opposition calls for them to take power, and is fractured and thus unlikely to intervene at this time. The Legalists, who have been rallying peacefully at Magro since the failure of Maputo II, have conveyed plans to switch venues towards the more centrally-located Place de 13 Mai. Clearly things again are moving in the wrong direction here, but continue to do so in slow motion. Word from today's SADC Summit, where Chisano was to make a presentation, is awaited here as the next signal -- after Saturdays's statement from the local chapter of the ICG -- of how firmly the international community will respond to this unfortunate unraveling of the Maputo process. End summary. Background: Old PM Ordered to Set up New Government -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) During the second round of negotiations in Mozambique under the auspices of the AU, SADC, the UN, and the OIF, Madagascar's four main political factions were unable to reach agreement on the composition of a consensual transition government to replace the de facto regime installed following the March 2009 coup. De facto transition leader Rajoelina requested until September 4 to consult his supporters, particularly regarding the post of prime minister. Following failed attempts to negotiate with Rajoelina last week, the other three political factions (those of former presidents Ravalomanana, Zafy, and Ratsiraka) called on the military to appoint the top three positions of president, vice president, and prime minister, as the civilians could not agree. The military issued a statement mid-day on September 4 rejecting that proposal. Later on September 4, Rajoelina gave a televised speech, announcing that he would maintain his post and keep current prime minister Roindefo as well. In a subsequent letter to lead mediator Chissano (ref A), Rajoelina used the statement by the other movements as a pretext for retaining his Prime Minister, whom had ordered to set up a new, "inclusive" transition government, following the "spirit of the Maputo transition charter" within 72 hours (ref B). Opposition Response: Parallel Government? -------------- ¶3. (C) The three other political movements announced that they would not participate in the new government, as Rajoelina hadn't respected the agreements made in Maputo. The Ravalomanana group issued a press statement saying that any members of its movement would no longer be considered members if they joined Rajoelina's government. Zafy called a meeting of the four movements for this week and asserted that if Rajoelina failed to participate, the other three movements would name their own consensus government. The Legalist protesters at Magro called for a strike beginning Sept 7 (which apparently wasn't observed, given the normal level of activity in town Sept 7 and 8). Sources have indicated that they may move their protest from Magro to Place de 13 Mai, the centrally-located site of Rajoelina's protests earlier this year. New Government is Not Consensual -------------- ¶4. (C) On the afternoon of Sept 8, Monja announced that, in addition to naming the ministers of the new government, the transition authorities would also name the vice president and leaders of various transition institutions as set forth in the Maputo charter, including the heads of the congress, ANTANANARI 00000634 002 OF 003 senate-equivalent, and national reconciliation council. The retention of both the president and prime minister positions violated the agreements made during the second round of negotiations in Mozambique, during which Rajoelina was pressured to cede the prime minister role to Ratsiraka's group in order to keep his own post. Also, Ravalomanana's group was given the right to name the head of the congress, while Zafy's group was due to name the head of the national reconciliation council. Rajoelina has ignored these agreements and proceeded to allocate these posts without the input of these other movements. ¶5. (C) Rajoelina and Monja remain in place, as do an additional 18 other officials out of 34 executive-branch positions. Foreign minister Ny Hasina Andrimanjato was elevated to the position of vice prime minister, while retaining the same portfolio. Eleven new ministers were appointed, as well as two new vice prime ministers (in addition to Andrimanjato's promotion). Only three of the new appointments are immediately identifiable as "outsider" non-HAT appointments (Manorohanta, Andriamiseza, and Ratovomalala),and none of those were in the inner circle of their respective affiliations. Monja announced that Madagascar's Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva Rajemison Rakotomaharo (who was senate president from 2002-2008 until demoted/betrayed by Ravalomanana, and who remains well-respected - reftel B) has been appointed vice president, while former National Assembly President Jacques Sylla (who openly betrayed Ravalomanana by jumping over to the Rajoelina camp just before the coup) has been appointed head of the transition congress. This remains the only nomination outside the executive at this time, leaving the presidency of the High Council of the Transition (equivalent to the former Senate) unnamed, along with heads of the various other transition bodies forseen in Maputo I. There were six women appointed to the executive (out of 34 positions total),falling somewhat short of their stated 30 percent target. ¶6. (C) Following is a complete listing of the proposed transition administration. President: Andry RAJOELINA Vice President of the Transition: Rajemison RAKOTOMAHARO (New) Prime Minister: Roindefo MONJA Vice-Prime Minister in Charge of Interior: Cecile MANOROHANTA (New) Vice-Prime Minister in charge of Public Health: Alain Djacoba TEHINDRAZANARIVELO (New) Vice-Prime Minister in charge of Foreign Affairs: Ny Hasina ANDRIAMANJATO (New, formerly foreign minister) State Secretary in Charge of Vocational Training: TOTO RAHARIMALALA Marie Lydia (New) Minister of Sports: Virapin RAMAMONJISOA (New) Minister of Livestock: Jean De Dieu MAHARANTE (New) Minister of Agriculture: Jaona Mamitiana Jucelyno (New) Minister of Environment and Forests: Colonel Caliste RANDRIAMIANDRISOA (New) Minister of Youth: Serge Harianala RANAIVO (New) Minister of Budget and Finances: Hery Rajaonary Mampianina (New) Minister of Public Works and Meteorology: Eric RAZAFIMANDIMBY (New) Minister of Communications: Nathalie RABE (New) Minister of Fisheries and Halieutical Resources: Alain ANDRIAMISEZA (New) Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons: Mamy RATOVOMALALA (New) Minister of Armed Forces: Col. Noel RAKOTONANDRASANA Minister of Justice: Christine RAZANAMAHASOA Minister of Energy: Rodolphe RAMANANTSOA Minister of Decentralization and Town Planning: Hajo ANDRIANAINARIVELO Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research: Athanase TONGAVELO Minister of Transports: Roland RANJATOELINA Minister of Tourism and Handicrafts: Irene ANDREAS Minister of Water: Nirhy Lanto ANDRIAMAHAZO Minister of Population and Social Affairs: Nadine RAMAROSON Minister of National Education: Julien RAZAFIMANAZATO Minister of Culture and Patrimony: Gilbert RAHARIZATOVO Minister of Labor, Civil Service, and Social Law: Noelson WILLIAM ANTANANARI 00000634 003 OF 003 Minister of Telecommunication, Post, and New Technology: Augustin ANDRIAMANANORO Minister of Commerce: Jean Claude RAKOTONIRINA Minister of Economy and Industry: Richard FIENENA Minister of Internal Security: Organes RAKOTOMIHANTARIZAKA State Secretary in charge of Gendarmerie: General Claude RAVELOMANANA President of the Transition Congress: Jacques SYLLA (New) History Repeats -------------- ¶7. (C) Comment: In response to Rajoelina's unilateral attempt to set up an "inclusive" transition regime, the other three movements are expected to announce a parallel shadow government of their own. The military has not made any statements since their recent rejection of opposition calls for them to take power, and is fractured and thus unlikely to intervene at this time. The Legalists, who have been rallying peacefully at Magro since the failure of Maputo II, have conveyed plans to switch venues towards the more centrally-located Place de 13 Mai, although any attempt to do so may quickly be opposed by the security forces that have effectively contained them, without bloodshed, since April. Clearly things again are moving in the wrong direction here, but continue to do so in slow motion. Word from today's SADC Summit, where Chisano was to make a presentation, is awaited here as the next sign -- after Saturdays's statement from the local chapter of the ICG -- of how firmly the international community will respond to the unfortunate unraveling of the Maputo process. End comment. MARQUARDT