DIPLOMATIC EFFORT REVEALS FULL-BLOWN MALAGASY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000060 E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2019 TAGS: MA PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: DIPLOMATIC EFFORT REVEALS FULL-BLOWN MALAGASY POLITICAL CRISIS Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. DIPLOMATS MET ON JANUARY 22 FIRST WITH ANTANANARIVO MAYOR ANDRY "TGV" RAJOELINA AND IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARDS WITH THE PRIME MINISTER AND FOREIGN MINISTER TO SEEK COMMON GROUND THAT MIGHT CALM THE WORSENING POLITICAL CRISIS IN MADAGASCAR. THE TWO DISCUSSIONS, EACH LASTING ABOUT TWO HOURS, REVEALED A FAR GREATER DEGREE OF POLARIZATION AND RISK OF CONFRONTATION THAN HAD BEEN EVIDENT BEFORE. THE MAYOR, FOR HIS PART, HAS ASSUMED A BROAD, SELF-APPOINTED, AND UNCOMPROMISING ROLE AS POPULIST LEADER OF THE NATION'S ENTIRE POPULATION -- WHICH HE CLAIMS IS OVERWHELMINGLY FED UP WITH RAVALOMANANA'S CORRUPT LEADERSHIP -- AND HE OPENLY STATED THAT HIS GOAL IS REGIME CHANGE VIA A TRANSITION GOVERNMENT AND SOME SORT OF REFERENDUM REVEALING THE TRUE EXTENT OF POPULAR DISCONTENT. TGV SEEMED UNINTERESTED IN FINDING COMMON GROUND AND MAY HAVE PASSED A POINT OF NO RETURN IN HIS SOURED RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE PRESIDENT AND GOVERNMENT. THE TWO MINISTERS, FOR THEIR PARTS, CLEARLY SEE THE EXTREME DANGERS INVOLVED AS THE MAYOR CALLS FOR ANOTHER UNAUTHORIZED PUBLIC DEMONSTRATION THIS SATURDAY. THEY ARE CONVINCED THAT THE MAYOR IS BEING MANIPULATED BY EX-RATSIRAKA LOYALISTS AND EVEN BY THE EXILED FORMER PRESIDENT HIMSELF FROM PARIS, AND DO NOT SEE THE MAYOR AS A TRUSTWORTHY OR LEGITIMATE PARTNER IN A NEGOTIATION THEY CLAIM TO HAVE BEEN SEEKING, IN VAIN, FOR SOME TIME. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CURRENT CONFRONTATION BEING EXPLOITED BY AN UNNAMED, UNSEEN "THIRD COLUMN" WHO MIGHT SPARK VIOLENCE OR EVEN KILL THE MAYOR IN AN EFFORT TO CREATE 2002-LIKE CONDITIONS IN THE STREETS OF THE CAPITAL. THE DIPLOMATS WERE UNITED IN SENDING SOBERING MESSAGES TO BOTH SIDES THAT WE ALSO SEE THE SITUATION AS EXPLOSIVE, THAT A COMMITMENT TO NON-VIOLENCE IS KEY, THAT ALL SIDES NEED TO STEP BACK AND AVOID INADVERTENTLY SPARKING VIOLENCE, AND THAT ANY RESORT TO EXTRACONSTITUTIONAL ACTIONS WILL BE MET BY PARTNER GOVERNMENTS WITH CONDEMNATION AND A LIKELY SUSPENSION OF ASSISTANCE NEEDED BY THE MALAGASY PEOPLE, THE PRESIDENT, FOR HIS PART, LEFT TODAY FOR SOUTH AFRICA (FOR AN EXTRAORDINARY SADC SUMMIT ON ZIMBABWE NOT TO BE HELD UNTIL MONDAY),THUS DELIBERATELY ABSENTING HIMSELF FROM MADAGASCAR FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND. HE APPEARS TO BE WILLING TO RECEIVE AMBASSADORS IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIS RETURN TO HEAR OUR THOUGHTS AND DISCUSS POSSIBLE CALMING MEASURES. HOWEVER, THE SITUATION COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED BY THEN. WE AND THE FRENCH, AND PERHAPS OTHERS, ARE ISSUING UPDATED WARDEN MESSAGES IN VIEW OF THE ABOVE. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) I JOINED MY EU, GERMAN, UNDP AND NORWEGIAN COUNTERPARTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN A TWO-HOUR MEETING AT THE EU RESIDENCE WITH 'TANA MAYOR TGV. (NOTE: FRANCE AND SOUTH ARICA WERE ALSO ASSOCATED WITH AND AWARE OF THIS INITIATIVE BUT UNABLE TO ATTEND. END NOTE.) THIS FOLLOWED A SUGGESTION FROM FORMER PRIME MINISTER AND CURRENT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT JACQUES SYLLA THAT AN OUTSIDE EFFORT FROM RESIDENT DIPLOMATS TOWARD BOTH TGV AND THE GOVENMENT WOULD BE WELCOME AND PERHAPS EFFECTIVE IN CALMING DOWN A DANGEROUSLY ESCALATING POLITICAL SITUATION HERE. SYLLA CONFIRMED THIS VIEW IN A TETE-A-TETE WITH ME ON THURSDAY MORNING, DURING WHICH HE STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE IN MALAGASY CULTURE OF MAINTAINING OPEN DIALOGUE AND RESPECTFUL RELATIONS -- BOTH SEVERELY FRAYED AFTER WEEKS OF HARDENING PUBLIC RHETORIC BETWEEN THE MAYOR'S CAMP AND THE GOVERNMENT. TGV CAME TO THE MEETING ALONE AND LAUNCHED THE DISCUSSION WITH A LENGTHY CATALOGUE OF GRIEVANCES AGAINST THE PRESIDENT AND THE GOVERNMENT, ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION, RECITATIONS OF WRONGS AGAINST HIM IN HIS ROLE AS MAYOR, AND CLAIMS THAT HE IS NOW THE UNDISPUTED LEADER OF BOTH THE OPPOSITION AND THE DISAFFECTED MAJORITY OF THE MALAGASY POPULATION WHO HAVE HAD IT WITH RAVALOMANANA. MANY OF HIS COMPLAINTS HAVE SOME BASIS IN FACT, ALTHOUGH IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR HOW MANY MALAGASY ARE SUFFICIENTLY UNHAPPY AS TO WISH A RETURN TO A 2002-STYLE PUBLIC CONFRONTATION OR REALLY WANT OR EXPECT IMMEDIATE REGIME CHANGE. ¶3. (C) TGV CLAIMED, HOWEVER, THAT THE MAJORITY WANT RAVALOMANANA OUT NOW, AND DEFINED AS HIS OBJECTIVE IMMEDIATE REGIME CHANGE VIA A TRANSITION GOVERNMENT THAT WOULD COME TO POWER THROUGH SOME UNDEFINED POPULAR REFERENDUM AGAINST RAVALOMANANA'S RULE. ASKED WHETHER HE THOUGHT THE PRESIDENT WOULD GO ALONG WITH SUCH A PLAN, TGV ADMITTED THAT HE WOULD NOT. WE DIPLOMATS THEN TOOK TURNS EXPLAINING THE UNACCEPTABLE NATURE OF EXTRACONSTITUTIONAL ACTIONS AND THE LIKELY NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES IF THEY FOLLOW, USING RECENT EVENTS IN GUINEA AND MAURITANIA AS EXAMPLES. TGV WAS UNMOVED AND ONLY RATCHETED UP HIS POPULIST RHETORIC ABOUT THE SUFFERING OF THE MALAGASY PEOPLE AND REITERATING HIS OVER-REACHING DEMANDS THAT CERTAIN MINISTERS BE FIRED, THAT THE PRESIDENT SELL HIS RECENTLY-ACQUIRED PRESIDENTIAL AIRCRAFT, ETC. I ASKED HIM DIRECTLY WHETHER HE HAS REACHED A POINT OF NO RETURN IN HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE PRESIDENT AND WHETHER HE IS STILL OPEN TO DIALOGUE WITH HIM; HIS ANSWER WAS EQUIVOCAL. IN RESPONSE TO HIS ASSERTION THAT HE IS "IN PERFECT CONTROL" OF THE OPPOSITION AND OF MASS EVENTS LIKE HIS NEXT PLANNED PUBLIC DEMONSTRATION ON SATURDAY AT AMBOHIJATOVA PARK, WE CAUTIONED THAT UNSEEN FORCES NEITHER ON HIS SIDE NOR THE PRESIDENT'S COULD EASILY TRY TO EXPLOIT THE SITUATION FOR THEIR OWN GAIN, INCLUDING EVEN BY TRYING TO KILL THE MAYOR AND PINNING BLAME FOR THE ACT ON THE GOVERNMENT; THAT TOO HAD NO VISIBLE IMPACT ON HIS DEMEANOR. IN PARTING, WE ASSURED HIM THAT WE WOULD ALSO BE TALKING STRAIGHT WITH THE PRESIDENT AND GOVERNMENT AND ENCOURAGING THEM TO LOOK FOR GESTURES AND ACTIONS THAT WOULD HELP RE-ESTABLISH DIALOGUE AND COMMUNICATION. WE SAID THAT WE WOULD EXPECT HIM TO WELCOME AND RESPOND POSIITIVELY TO ANY SUCH ACTIONS, IF THEY COME. HE CLOSED BY REASSURING US OF HIS OPENNESS TO DIALOGUE AND HIS COMMITMENT TO NON-VIOLENT CHANGE. WE WERE, HOWEVER, NOT THE LEAST BIT REASSURED BY HIS OVERSALL PRESENTATION. FINALLY, TGV ASSURED US THAT "I AM NOT BEING MANIPULATED BY ANYONE; EVERYTHING I AM DOING IS ENTIRELY MY OWN IDEA AND OF MY OWN WILL." ¶4. (C) IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER WE MET (WITHOUT THE GERMAN AMBASSADOR) FOR TWO HOURS WITH THE PRIME MINISTER AND FOREIGN MINISTER, THE MEETING BEING THE GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSE TO OUR URGENT REQUEST TO SEE THE PRESIDENT BEFORE SATURDAY'S DEMONSTRATION. THE PRIME MINISTER EXPLAINED THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS LEAVING FRIDAY MORNING FOR A SADC SUMMIT IN SOUTH AFRICA AND DID NOT HAVE TIME TO RECEIVE US BEFORE THEN, BUT WOULD PROBABLY DO SO UPON HIS RETURN ON MONDAY. BOTH RETIRED GENERALS AND THUS VERY FAMILIAR WITH SECURITY ISSUES, THE TWO MINISTERS WRUNG THEIR HANDS ABOUT THE SECURITY DILEMMA THEY FACE ON SATURDAY: EITHER THEY RESPOND WITH FORCE AND RISK A CONFRONTATION, OR SIT BACK AND RISK ALLOWING DISORDER TO ESCALATE WHICH THEY WOULD THEN BE IN NO POSITION TO CONTROL. THE PRIME MINISTER SAID SEVERAL TIMES THAT THEY HAVE NOT YET DECIDED WHAT TO DO, AND HIMSELF RAISED THE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE MAYOR COULD BE ASSASSINATED BY A "THIRD COLUMN" AND THE BLAME STUCK ON THE GOVERNMENT. THE PRIME MINISTER NOTED THAT "WE MALAGASY DO THIS IN A CYCLICAL FASHION, BUILDING UP OUR COUNTRY AND THEN DESTROYING EVERYTHING WE HAVE ACCOMPLISHED THROUGH SUCH ACTIONS." THE TWO MINISTERS LAMENTED THE "HATE-SPEAK" NOW ON THE LOCAL AIRWAVES AND IN THE PRESS, EQUATING IT TO RWANDA IN 1994 AND MULLING OVER THEIR UNPLEASANT OPTIONS IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE RESPONSES TO IT. FOREIGN MINISTER RANJEVA ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS DISPAIRED OF THEIR MANY FAILED EFFORTS -- INCLUDING THROUGH TGV'S MOTHER -- TO REACH OUT AND CREATE EFFECTIVE LINES OF COMMUNICATION TO HIM THAT WOULD CIRCUMVENT THE CIRCLE AROUND HIM. HE AND THE PRIME MINISTER BOTH SAID THEY HAVE INTELLIGENCE LINKING TGV'S ACTIONS TO EXILED FORMER PRESIDENT RATSIRAKA IN PARIS, AND THAT THEY HAVE CONCLUDED THAT TGV IS BEING ENTIRELY MANIPULATED AND IS THUS NOT A TRUSTWORTHY NEGOTIATING PARTNER AS THEY SEEK TO DEFUSE THE SITUATION. WHO CAN WE NEGOTIATE WITH, THEY ASKED RHETORICALLY? ¶5. (C) THE EU AMBASSADOR LAID OUT A NUMBER OF PRINCIPLES SHARED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INCLUDING THE NEED FOR DIALOGUE, THE IMPORTANCE OF AVOIDING VIOLENCE, AND THE NEED FOR BOTH SIDES TO SHOW RESPECT FOR THE INDIVIDUALS AND THE ELECTED OFFICES ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE -- AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR MADAGASCAR AND ITS DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS IF THE SITUATION CANNOT BE RIGHTED. WE EXPRESSED A PREFERENCE FOR DEPLOYING MINIMUM FORCE TO CONTROL SATURDAY'S EVENT, NOTING THAT THIS APPROACH HAD WORKED WELL AT LAST SATURDAY'S NON-VIOLENT DEMONSTRATION. THE PRIME MINISTER SAID THAT "THE SITUATION THIS WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT THAN LAST WEEKEND, AND I DO NOT KNOW IF WE CAN RISK TAKING THE SAME APPROACH." I ASKED WHETHER THE RE-OPENING OF THE CLOSED TV STATION MIGHT NOT BE AN APPROPRIATE GESTURE TO RE-ESTABLISH TRUST AND DIALOGUE, TO GIVE THE GOM BACK SOME OF THE MORAL HIGH GROUND, AND ALSO TO MOVE AWAY FROM RESTRICTIONS ON PRESS FREEDOM WHICH ARE PROBLEMATIC IN OTHER RESPECTS. THE PRIME MINISTER ASKED IN RESPONSE WHAT "GUARANTEE" WE COULD OFFER OF SUCCESS IF THEY DO THAT (NONE, OF COURSE). THE FOREIGN MINISTER POINTED OUT THAT THERE IS A LEGAL PROCEDURE BY WHICH THE MAYOR COULD REQUEST THE RE-OPENING OF THE TV STATION, AND THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A LEGAL, FACE-SAVING DENOUEMENT; HOWEVER, HE NOTED THAT TGV HAS CHOSEN NOT TO PURSUE THIS AVENUE, AND OPINED THAT THIS IS PROOF THAT HE IS NOT SERIOUS. THE PRIME MINISTER SUMMARIZED: "THE PROBLEMS ARE ELSEWHERE, WE KNOW THAT THEY WANT A COUP D'ETAT. RE-OPENING THE STATION WILL SOLVE NOTHING, BUT WE ARE OPEN TO DOING IT IF IT WOULD HELP. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THEY WILL RESPOND IF WE EXTEND OUR HAND. IN FACT, THE PRESIDENT DID EXTEND HIS HAND AND SO FAR HAS GOTTEN NO REPLY." NONETHELESS, HE AGREED THAT TRYING TO ENGINEER SOME SORT OF PEACE-MAKING MEETING BETWEEN THE MAYOR AND PRESIDENT UPON THE LATTER'S RETURN HELD THE MOST PROMISE FOR CALMING THESE ROILED WATERS -- BUT ITSELF WOULD NOT BE EASY TO BRING ABOUT. RANJEVA ENDED THE DISCUSSION WITH A QUASI-PROMISE THAT WE WILL ALL MEET WITH THE PRESIDENT ON MONDAY NIGHT AFTER HIS RETURN. BOTH HE AND THE PRIME MINISTER PRAISED THIS DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVE FROM "TRUE FRIENDS OF MADAGASCAR." ¶6. (C) I MET ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRENCH CHARGE TO BRIEF HER ON THESE MEETINGS (WHICH SHE HAD BEEN UNABLE TO ATTEND DUE TO A SENIOR VISITING "FRANCOPHONIE" DELEGATION FROM THE ELYSEE). SHE SAID THAT SHE ALSO HAS PASSED IDENTICAL AND EQUALLY URGENT MESSAGES TO BOTH SIDES BUT HAS CONCLUDED THAT THE PROBLEM HAS BECOME THE "OUT-OF-CONTROL MAYOR". SHE HAS WARNED HIM THAT FRANCE ALSO WOULD HAVE TO SIDE WITH THE DULY ELECTED PRESIDENT OF MADAGASCAR IF ANY EXTRA-LEGAL ACTIONS ARE UNDERTAKEN TO UNSEAT HIM. SHE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT THE SAFETY OF THE LARGE FRENCH EXPATRIATE COMMUNITY IN MADAGASCAR AND CONFIRMED THAT THEY ARE ISSUING ANOTHER WARDEN MESSAGE TODAY (AS WE ARE) WARNING FRENCH CITIZENS OF "ESCALATING DANGER AND HIGH RISK" DOWNTOWN ON SATURDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND. SHE NOTED THAT THE ELYSEE HELD A CRISIS MEETING ON THIS SITUATION THURSDAY, BUT SAID THAT SHE DID NOT YET HAVE ANY READOUT ON ITS RESULTS. WE HAVE NO CHOICES, SHE SAID, BUT TO HUNKER DOWN AND KEEP A LOW PROFILE (READ: THE FRENCH COMMUNITY IS SO LARGE HERE THAT NO EVACUATION IS FEASIBLE). SHE GUESSED THAT THE GOM WOULD OPT FOR A LOWER-PROFILE SECURITY PRESENCE ON SATURDAY, WHICH SHE AGREED WOULD BE A GOOD THING. NOT SO GOOD, SHE SAID, WAS THE PRESIDENT'S DELIBERATE DECISION TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY TODAY (FOR A SUMMIT MEETING THAT DOES NOT START UNTIL MONDAY) AND THUS TO BE ABSENT FROM MADAGASCAR FOR TOMORROW'S DEMONSTRATION. HER ANALYSIS WAS THAT RAVALOMANANA WANTS TO DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM WHAT COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A VIOLENT DEMONSTRATION, OR EVEN A COUP ATTEMPT, AND THUS AVOID RESPONSIBILITY AND BLAME FOR WHATEVER HAPPENS (WHILE ALSO ASSURING HIS OWN PHYSICAL SAFETY). COMPARING NOTES, IT WAS CLEAR THAT RAVALOMANANA HAD CONVENED A MEETING THIS MORNING BEFORE HIS DEPARTURE OF SENIOR SECURITY OFFICIALS -- AT WHICH HE UNDOUBTEDLY GAVE SOME INSTRUCTIONS. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: THERE IS NO LONGER MUCH QUESTION HERE THAT THE LONG-SIMMERING DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MAYOR AND PRESIDENT HAS NOW BECOME A FULL-BLOWN POLITICAL CRISIS, EVEN AS -- IN PECULIAR MALAGASY STYLE -- NO SHOT HAS BEEN FIRED OR ANY PERSON INJURED OR JAILED (YET). WITH REGIME CHANGE NOW THE MAYOR'S STATED GOAL, THE GOM WILL BE TEMPTED TO TREAT THIS AS NOTHING LESS THAN AN ILLEGAL COUP ATTEMPT, AND NO DOUBT IS MULLING OVER A RANGE OF RESPONSES INCLUDING SOME HIGHLY FORCEFUL ONES. ALL EYES ARE NOW ON SATURDAY'S DEMONSTRATION: IF IT MANAGES TO PASS PEACEFULLY AND/OR FAILS TO DRAW A SUFFICIENTLY IMPRESSIVE CROWD, TENSIONS MAY START TO FALL AS WEARY MALAGASY RETURN TO THEIR DAILY LIVES AND/OR TGV STARTS TO REALIZE THAT HIS SUPPORT IS WEAKER THAN HE THOUGHT. HOWEVER, WE AND OTHERS REMAIN QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT THE ALTERNATIVE -- A VIOLENT SPARK THAT COULD THEN START BURNING OUT OF CONTROL. MARQUARDT