MADAGASCAR: MEDIATORS PAVE THE WAY FOR NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000570 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/EPS AND AF/E - MBEYZEROVUS DOC FOR BECKY ERKUL - DESK OFFICER TREASURY FOR FBOYE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV ETRD MA SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: MEDIATORS PAVE THE WAY FOR NEGOTIATIONS IN MOZAMBIQUE REF: ANTANANARIVO 564 Classified By: P/E CHIEF DOVIE HOLLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.1. (C) Summary: The mediators in Madagascar's political crisis told the international contact group July 30 that they had made arrangements for the islands' four main political rivals to meet face to face in Mozambique August 5-7. The mediators met with transition leader "TGV" Rajoelina, ex-President Zafy, and each of the four delegations, civil society, economic actors, and religious leaders during this week's mission to Madagascar in preparation for the Maputo meeting. Separately they reported that they had been in direct contact with ex-Presidents Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka. These groups expressed concern about the deterioration of the economic situation, the potential loss of AGOA trade benefits, and possible AU sanctions, to which lead mediator Chissano replied that the ball was in Madagascar's court to determine the outcome of those decisions. While the mediators hope to convince all four protagonists to agree not to run for president, they realize the difficulty of such an agreement, and are thus not firm in their support for the principle that the transition leader should not be able to run. All signs point toward participation by all four leaders at the tete-a-tete in Mozambique, but the meeting could still be derailed in the next five days if TGV or others find or create new pretexts to prevent them from attending. End summary. CHISSANO AND MEDIATION TEAM BRIEF DIPLOMATIC CORPS ¶2. (SBU) The International Contact Group was convened July 30 for a briefing on the efforts of the international mediators (SADC, OIF, UN, AU),led by former Mozambican President Chissano, in preparation of an August 5-7 meeting in Maputo of Madagascar's four main political rivals (transition leader "TGV" Rajoelina, ousted President Ravalomanana, former President Zafy, and former President Ratsiraka). Despite some waffling earlier in the week, all four have agreed to participate. The EU Ambassador noted that some delegation members were not at liberty to attend the meeting (such as Ravalomanana's Prime Minister Manandafy who is under house arrest and others who are in hiding or arrested),and suggested that confidence building measures be taken to improve the environment before the talks. He recommended that some representatives go to Maputo in advance to set the stage for the meetings. Chissano replied that those questions of appeasement will be treated during the meetings, as it was too late now, and he did not want to jeopardize the tenuous agreement (particularly of TGV) to attend. Although donor support for this meeting is not urgent, Chissano explained, it will be needed in the future. The French Ambassador noted that France would provide transportation for Ratsiraka to get to Maputo. CONCERN ABOUT AGOA AND WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MAPUTO ¶3. (SBU) While in Madagascar this week, the mediators met with TGV; the Ravalomanana, Zafy, and Ratsiraka delegations; civil society groups; economic actors; unions; and religious leaders. These leaders expressed concern about the economic deterioration of the country, the possible loss of AGOA trade benefits, which would cause tens of thousands of workers to lose their jobs, and the possibility of AU sanctions being applied in September. Chissano explained that if Madagascar is a member of an organization, it must follow the organization's rules and that the decisions of the AU and on AGOA would depend on Madagascar's efforts and progress on negotiations. In a separate sidebar, the Charge discussed the AGOA situation with Chissano and UN Envoy Drame. He stressed the critical need (if indeed the parties, and particularly the de facto regime, are seriously concerned about AGOA) to take steps immediately to reinstate the rule of law and respect for international norms on many levels which have been largely ignored for some time. Chissano asked for time to move the parties forward, noting that he will push for as much as possible in Maputo but that it may be only the first in a series of steps to move the process forward. The charge replied that the clock for AGOA is not one that can be ANTANANARI 00000570 002 OF 002 adjusted and time is fast running out for concrete actions in Madagascar that can influence the decision. MEDIATION SUSPENSION IN JUNE FOCUSED ATTENTION AND MAY NOW ALLOW PROGRESS ¶4. (SBU) The mediators will meet with Zafy July 31. They did not have enough time this visit to plan a careful approach to and meeting with military elements, but will likely pursue that avenue in the future. AU Envoy Ouedraogo opined that the suspension of negotiations June 16 had born fruit, as the Malagasy had woken up and seized the opportunity to draft several new charter versions and alternate proposals, evincing an interest in their fate. Chissano stressed that the Malagasy must take ownership of the negotiation process, and that it was an inclusive process that would take these groups and their concerns into account. The meeting in Maputo of the four leaders was essential for unblocking several key areas of negotiation (who will do what during the transition and who will be granted amnesty for example),he explained, but it would not be the last step. The Charge pointed out that the mediators should manage expectations regarding the meeting in Maputo when they spoke to the press July 31, as many Malagasy were concerned that the mediation would end if the talks in Maputo failed to produce a signed agreement. He also asked if the question of who would be allowed to run for president would be treated in Maputo. OIF Envoy Kodjo replied that these thorny issues would be tackled, but he could not predict an outcome. AU Envoy Ouedraogo said that the mediators would like to see all four abstain from running, but was not optimistic. PARALLEL DISCUSSIONS WITH OTHER ACTORS? ¶5. (SBU) In the general briefing UN Envoy Tiebile Drame questioned the Nuncio (local Vatican representative and dip corps dean) about a meeting that Drame understood he had hosted July 28 involving representatives of the four delegations, civil society and TGV himself, which allegedly would lead to a "conference on the crisis August 4", and urged that "parallel" efforts be coordinated with the international contact group. The Nuncio responded that he had simply provided the space for a meeting that various Malagasy requested. He said the meeting was in the Malagasy language and that he had not participated nor did he know anything about its outcome. In the event, July 31 newspapers carry reports on a conference to be convened in Antananarivo August 4 at a hotel by civil society members along the broad lines of parallel efforts reported in reftel. In the media reports, the organizers insist that their meeting is supportive of, rather than instead of, the ongoing international mediation effort and the Maputo summit. However, some involved in the conference planning have told Emboff that if the charter can be signed here during the conference, then "there will be no need to go to Mozambique." ¶6. (C) Comment: Although all signs point to go, the Maputo meeting could still be derailed in the next five days. TGV is threatened by Ratsiraka, whom he double-crossed, and Ravalomanana, whom he would like to keep far on the sidelines. He may be frightened or intimidated by the prospect of meeting these two "elders" face to face, as he will find it hard not to make serious concessions, which his backers will protest, if they come together. The HAT is continuing to install itself throughout the country (although it did postpone the national conference by one month until the end of August),and is furthering its preparations for the holding of early elections. TGV advisers now view recent events in Mauritania as an example they may follow to keep themselves in power. If the Mozambique negotiations do not take place, the HAT is ever more likely to seek a "consensus" that would leave out Ravalomanana and move forward with their plans. While cautiously optimistic, Post would not be surprised if another "bomb" scare, some other pretext arising over the weekend, or the just announced August 4 conference gives TGV an excuse to avoid what is certain for him to be a no win situation. End comment. STROMAYER