HAT FM ALLEGES RAVALOMANANA ASSOCIATED FIGURES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000548 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV PARIS FOR RKANEDA LONDON FOR PLORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MA SUBJECT: HAT FM ALLEGES RAVALOMANANA ASSOCIATED FIGURES RESPONSIBLE FOR BOMBINGS AND DISCUSSES POLITICAL SITUATION REF: ANTANANARIVO 547 Classified By: DCM ERIC STROMAYER FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a Note Verbal dated July 20 to the Diplomatic Corps the HAT Foreign Ministry alleges that Ravalomanana and figures close to him are responsible for the spate of bombing attempts and violence (ref A) directed at regime offices in the last week. At HAT Foreign Minister Ny Hasina's request he met with the Ambassador and DCM late July 21 to deliver the note and some supporting documents. He took the opportunity after a perfunctory discussion of the note, to also discuss the general political situation, the July 22 ICG meeting in Addis Ababa and HAT non-participation there as well as HAT contact with President Chissano. END SUMMARY RAVALOMANANA SUPPORTERS RESPONSIBLE FOR BOMBINGS ¶2. (C) Shortly before the arrival of the FM at the meeting an MFA driver delivered copies of the Note Verbal and of a three page police report summarizing the bomb related events since June 15. The note verbal declared that preliminary inquires reveal that the attacks are being perpetrated by "groups and individuals" close to the Ravalomanana regime, calls on the Diplomatic community to condemn this "terrorism," and stated that a cessation of these acts was essential for a resumption of negotiations. The accompanying report by the Gendarmerie nationale outlined the events since June 18 and alleges that the instigators of the attacks have been named by some of those detained. The Ambassador, who personally knows some of those who have been publicly named frankly expressed his skepticism and that of other diplomats in Madagascar as to the likely veracity of the HAT claims. At the same time, he noted that the US has repeatedly condemned the use of force and in no way condoned terrorist acts by anyone. Ny Hasina responded that those named were all his personal friends, that he too was initially skeptical, but that he had then seen the three page report he had sent. The Ambassador and DCM then reiterated their concern that allegations did not make a case, let alone one that should be presented by the head of state, before an investigation was complete. Ny Hasina agreed that the publication of names at this stage was a mistake and admitted the perpetrators may have received money from the named parties without making clear what they would do with it. He also expressed concern that the perpetrators might bomb the regular Magro legalist rally site and then blame any casualties on the HAT. The Ambassador and DCM said they found this very unlikely if indeed the legalists were behind the bombings, reiterating that it seems very unclear who actually is responsible. Ny Hasina then more or less dropped the issue leaving the Ambassador and DCM with the impression that he was not overly convinced of his case. POSSIBLE CHANGES IN HAT AND ADVICE TO RAJOELINA ¶3. (C) Ny Hasina said that in recent conversations with Rajoelina he has underlined that he cannot run the HAT and seek the presidency at the same time, and that any elections will have to be consensual if they are to be credible and accepted by the international community. Rajoelina, he claims, agrees with both premises but cannot decide if he will run for President in any elections, and fears reaction of some of his supporters if he does indeed decide to not run. Ny Hasina also said that Rajoelina has told him he knows he must remove Prime Minister Monja Roendefo and appoint someone (who?) who could be more of a consensual figure as Prime Minister to move toward the elections. Several times Ny Hasina said that a cabinet shake up would occur soon but was unsure who Roendefo would be replaced by. He also expressed increasing concern about the many abuses and self enrichment schemes that are occurring in and around the HAT stressing that the purpose of the TGV movement was not to "enrich ourselves," and noting his concerns about the people that Rajoelina has surrounded himself with. ANTANANARI 00000548 002 OF 002 HAT, CHISSANO AND ADDIS ¶4. (C) Turning to the Addis ICG meeting on July 22, Ny Hasina advised that President Chissano has been in contact directly with the HAT, and they had been very impressed by him. Chissano had advised them he knew nothing of the reasons why the Malagasy parties had been invited to Addis, noting that they were not parties to the ICG, and he would advise not attending. Ny Hasina said his impression was that AU Mediator Ouaddrago had organized this on his own which tracks with our assessment. As part of the ICG we advised him that the invitation had not come for the ICG. In the event the HAT had decided not to attend and Chissano said he would be returning soon to Madagascar with some good ideas on how to move the process forward. Ny Hasina added that discussions do continue between the different groupings here and that he did remain optimistic. We stressed it was crucial to restore the rule of law and reach a consensual path toward early elections. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Ny Hasina's comments reflect the realization of some in the HAT who are close to Rajeolina that the sooner they move forward to a compromise and elections the better. How or if he and those like him can prevail against others who are enriching themselves remains to be seen. The bombing campaign and who is responsible remains to be clarified and explained. We believe it is very unlikely that those named by the regime would organize a bombing campaign. END COMMENT STROMAYER