EAC CONVENED TO REVIEW ORDERED DEPARTURE STATUS

S E C R E T ANTANANARIVO 000354 DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, S/CT, CA, AND INR DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF DEPT FOR DS/ITA/AF DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2029 TAGS: ASEC CASC MA MP PGOV PREL PTER SUBJECT: EAC CONVENED TO REVIEW ORDERED DEPARTURE STATUS AND DETAINEE PHOTOGRAPHS REF: A. A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 245 ¶B. B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 316 Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: An Emergency Action Committee (EAC) was convened on May 18, 2009. The main topic was a review of Post's ordered departure (OD) status. The committee unanimously recommended that OD be lifted. The EAC also reviewed the current security and political situation in Antananarivo and the possible impact on the release of detainee photographs on mission security (none is expected). ¶2. (C) The Ambassador opened the meeting by providing a summary of political developments since the last EAC meeting. Currently, the African Union led International Contact Group - Madagascar is in Madagascar meeting with all political parties to assist in developing a negotiated road map for national reconciliation. Additionally, three other international envoys are present working on national reconciliation. The Ambassador stated that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is reconsidering their hard line that Ravalomanana must be reinstated as president by force if necessary and seems to realize that such a stance is counterproductive. The political dialogue between the various parties is continuing fitfully but appears unlikely to move to further violent confrontations in the forseeable future. ¶3. (C) The Regional Security Officer (RSO) provided an update on the Legalist gatherings over the past two weeks. A number of potential flash points passed without any confrontations between protesters and security forces. A potential flash point on historically important May 13th passed with no altercations between the Legalists and security forces. The Legalists expressed a desire to march to 13th of May park located in the city center but RSO assessed that the Legalists did not have the strength to march in mass to this destination due to reduced crowd numbers at their main rallying point and a desire not to provoke a direct confrontation between security forces which positioned themselves at the park. RSO stated that the Legalists continue to hold daily political gatherings and recently moved their rallies to Democracy park after receiving approval from the city of Antananarivo. RSO noted that since April 27th there have been no clashes between demonstrators and security forces. RSO stated that the security forces continue to deploy mixed units of National Police, Army, and Gendarmerie units near Legalist gatherings to act as a quick-reaction force to contain any potential violence. The greatest threat to Post personnel is the continued increase in crime with a few separate residential break-ins occurring at non-USG expat residences. However, RSO stated that the US Mission neighborhood in Ivandry has had no reported residential break-ins since the start of the crisis and a number of break-ins elsewhere were unsuccessful after the attackers realized the residence had a professional guard company protecting the residence with 24 hour guard coverage and panic alarms. ¶4. (C) The Public Affairs Officer (PAO) reported that the spike in anti-American media articles against the US ambassador/government's stance towards the transition government has subsided. PAO stated that the majority of these articles were from pro-HAT media with an agenda and incentive to support the current government. PAO mentioned that at no time did these articles direct threats against American citizens, foreign nationals, or the US Mission. The RSO concurred in that assessment. ¶5. (C) The Defense Attache Officer (DAO) stated that the military continues to play an inactive role in the re-establishment of constitutional order or reigning in the freelancing CAPSAT elements. The general lack of dialogue continues between the mutinous CAPSAT soldiers and the senior loyalist or neutral military leaders. DAO has received reports of Ravalomanana sending money to supposedly loyalist officers to act against CAPSAT and reestablish their control over the military but DAO reported the officers pocketed the money and used it for their own personal needs, without taking any action. DAO reported on a military-on-military exchange of fire near Ambatondrazaka on the grounds of former president Ravalomanana's rice processing factory but DAO lacked specific details on the incident from military contacts. In any case the incident represented no security challenge to U.S. interets. RSO stated early media reports indicated the confrontation occurred between competing CAPSAT elements with one group assigned to protect the location while another unit from Antananarivo apparenlty arrived to loot rice stocks. DAO stated that Minister of Defense Noel Rakotonandrasana continues to promise that military salary payments will be met and that senior military officers sidelined by CAPSAT will continue to receive their salaries and future retirement benefits. DAO concluded with his assessment that further significant militayr violence seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. ¶6. (S/NF) The Regional Affairs Officer (RAO) reported on the recent withdrawal of two rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launchers from an area armory by CAPSAT. RAO stated it was unclear the reason for this withdrawal but noted that CAPSAT already had in their possession a number of RPGs at the start of their mutiny in mid March. RAO stated that there has been no additional discussions -- and no actions -- by CAPSAT to target the US Mission and believes that these discussions have since ceased. RAO stated that there is growing pressure within the military to target the mutineers with a focus on Major Charles Andrianasoavina and Major Lylison, the leaders of the Commission Nationale Mixte d'Enquete, who have led the charge in shaking down local businesses and carrying out arbitrary arrests. There were conflicting reports that Major Charles was in hiding or may have possibly fled the country due to the reported bounty on his head. Additionally, RAO reported the CAPSAT leadership was unhappy with transition leader Rajoelina's decision not to run for president. Reportedly, CAPSAT leaders expressed a desire to have Rajoelina assassinated due to this decision. RAO and DAO believed that if acts of violence were carried out by competing military factions, the violent actions would not be widespread and would be executed quickly and targeted toward discrete individuals. If such events did occur, USG personnel or buildings would not be likely targets. ¶7. (C) The EAC completed a discussion and review of Post's reverse trip wires. The EAC judged that seven of Post's eight reverse trip wires have been crossed, but that one reverse trip wire has not been crossed. The single trip wire that has not been crossed: a) De facto government has not yet stabilized nor has an orderly non-violent process/roadmap been established or implemented. The EAC then unanimously voted to recommend to the Ambassador that he seek to lift the current OD status at this time. The general view of the EAC was that the unsettled political situation could drag out for months but the EAC felt that the threat of wide-scale political street violence, such as occurred in January-March, had passed and that security forces were showing that they could contain incidents of sporadic violence. ¶8. (SBU) Concerning the media attention on unreleased detainee photographs, the EAC has seen no reports or discussions of this topic in the local media. The consensus was that these unreleased photographs did not have any impact on mission or AMCIT security in Madagascar. MARQUARDT