AN EXILE RETURNS: PIERROT RAJAONARIVELO ENTERS THE FRAY

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000306

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E-MBEYZEROV, INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: AN EXILE RETURNS: PIERROT RAJAONARIVELO ENTERS THE FRAY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After seven years of exile in France, Mr. Pierrot
RAJAONARIVELO returned to Madagascar on April 25, and is now poised
to enter the political fray as alternative to TGV, Ravalomanana, and
Ratsiraka. Mr. Rajaonarivelo is the National Secretary of AREMA,
the political party of former president Didier Ratsiraka, and is
among the most well-known Malagasy politicians exiled after the 2002
crisis. Vice-Prime Minister for Decentralization and Budget before
his exile, he was sentenced to five years imprisonment for
corruption and abuse of power. However, he retains widespread
support on Madagascar's east coast, and attempted to run in the 2006
presidential election, but was banned from participation and from
returning to the country. Rajaonarivelo will reveal more details
about his intentions in a press conference later this week, but he
will be an influential player in the coming months, whether he
chooses to follow or challenge the transition government. END
SUMMARY.

PIERROT RAJAONARIVELO IN THE GOVERNMENT
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2. (SBU) Pierrot Rajaonarivelo (born June 17, 1946 on Ile St. Marie)
served presidents Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy as Ambassador to
the United States for almost eight years, from 1989 to 1997. He was
considered one of Ratsiraka's "promising young intellectuals", and
upon Ratsiraka's return to power in 1997 he was appointed one of
three Vice-Prime Ministers, in charge of decentralization and
budget. Following the 2002 crisis and the rise of Marc
Ravalomanana, he fled into exile in France, and was sentenced in
abstentia to five years of imprisonment for extortion, embezzlement
and abuse of power.

THE AREMA PARTY (ALLIANCE FOR THE REBIRTH OF MADAGASCAR)
-------------- --------------

3. (SBU) After his re-election in 1997, Didier Ratsiraka withdrew
from the public leadership of AREMA, which he had founded 22 years
prior, and named Rajaonarivelo (from his own ethnic group, the
Betsimisaraka) as the party's new National Secretary. It later
became clear that Ratsiraka had transferred power solely in order to
comply with the legal requirements of his position as president, but
Rajaonarivelo quickly began showing independence from the party's
"founding father". In the 2001 presidential election, Rajaonarivelo
actively sought the candidacy of AREMA, hinting that it was time for
Ratsiraka to step aside for a new generation of political leaders -
only to be disappointed when Ratsiraka decided to run again.


4. (SBU) The tension only increased as the election progressed.
Facing dairy tycoon Marc Ravalomanana, AREMA's younger members
preferred Rajaonarivelo, while the party's "dinosaurs" swore loyalty
to Ratsiraka. Once the two leaders went into exile in 2002, the
remaining party leadership split. The party's formal steering
committee maintained loyalty to Ratsiraka, while supporters of
Rajaonarivelo selected a "National Secretary ad Interim" to
represent themselves. In 2006, Ratsiraka loyalists boycotted the
presidential election, while Rajaonarivelo attempted to stage a
comeback, but was not permitted to return. Faced with this
intractable divide, a third faction formed: AREMA Matotra (Mature
AREMA),headed by former Deputy Pierre RAHARIJAONA. Although they
maintained ties with the AREMA family, Raharijaona led this new
group down a more practical path in support of Ravalomanana.

RAJAONARIVELO, RAJOELINA AND THE HAT
--------------

5. (SBU) Rajaonarivelo is strongly rumored to be one of the main
funding sources behind Andry Rajoelina's March coup, allegedly
steering the movement from abroad in an attempt to pave the way for
his own return. With Rajoelina now in power (in likely
contravention of an understanding between the two at the beginning
of the process),however, Rajaonarivelo has now distanced himself
from TGV: in statements to the press, he has indicated that he
considers the transition period to be too long, and the movement to
be a coup with no respect for legality. However, in a joint
communique with former Prime Minister Tantely ANDRIANARIVO (still in
exile),Rajaonarivelo thanked Rajoelina and the High Transitional
Authority (HAT) for having overthrown the Ravalomanana regime, and
announced their imminent return and their wish to contribute to a
"concerted transition." He also called for an open national
reconciliation, and a general amnesty "of facts and acts" (not just
a presidential pardon) for all of the political prisoners and exiles
- which would enable him to run in the next presidential election.



6. (SBU) After several false starts in the last month, Rajaonarivelo
returned on April 25. Indeed, his return has been rumored to be
imminent since late January. His planned welcome event was
cancelled, in the face of possible HAT opposition to his return, but
two days after arrival he remains free, and has promised a press
conference later this week. The HAT - which already has its hands
full without additional players joining the field -- had stated a
preference that exiles wait until after the June National Conference
to return, admitting their concern that Rajaonarivelo and his fellow
exiles may not simply fall in line.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Rajaonarivelo generally is seen as the most
plausible challenger in the next presidential election, and AREMA
stock has been rising in recent weeks as the HAT has flailed and
failed, and as Ravalomanana's return remains quite improbable.
Despite rumors of reconciliation with Ratsiraka, it appears that the
two factions remain divided. However, Rajaonarivelo has eroded
Ratsiraka's support base in Tamatave with his more active engagement
from abroad over the last three years, and now represents the
stronger (and younger) half. French government advice to
Rajaonarivelo not to return to Madagascar at this unsettled time
apparently had little impact.


MARQUARDT